Altimmune, Inc. (ALT) – Technical Analysis for 24h Price Outlook

Step 1: Trend Analysis

Long-Term Trend

• From February to mid-June 2025, ALT generally traded between $5.0 and $7.5, with considerable volatility but mostly range-bound movements.
• The trend from April through mid-June showed a mild bullish bias, as higher lows were set from April’s low ($3.67) up to June ($7.71). However, the massive collapse on June 26 reverted this setup.

Recent Price Activity and Key Break Event

• On 2025-06-26, ALT plunged drastically from the $7+ range to close at $3.61, with an unprecedented volume surge (86.1M shares vs the 1-7M average prior).
• On 2025-06-27, the price stabilized in the $3.38–3.77 range, closing at $3.50, with high but lower volume (19.8M shares).
• The structure is now dramatically altered: immense supply entered the market, and prices have not rebounded meaningfully.

Intra-Day Trend (June 27)

• Initial price attempted to pivot ($3.64 open), then consistently retested and failed at $3.77, with sellers stepping in progressively lower throughout the day.
• The end-of-day close of $3.49 is at/near the session low, indicating ongoing pressure and a high probability of continued weakness into the coming 24h.

Step 2: Volume and Order Flow

• The largest volume spike in ALT’s history just occurred (June 26). This is commonly indicative of a capitulation event (i.e., panic/forced selling from a major negative catalyst such as failed trial/FDA news).
• The decline in volume on June 27, but still above all pre-crash levels, tells us that liquidity remains. The stabilizing, but not recovering price, means sellers are still in control.

Step 3: Support and Resistance

• Major support previously at $5 has now evaporated. Pre-crash support near $3.70 was briefly tested in 2024 and failed to hold.
• Next key supports are at 1) $3.32–$3.38 (today’s intraday lows) and 2) psychological round number $3.00.
• Resistance is now very strong at $3.77 (session high and formerly a breakdown zone), with major supply at $4.00–$4.50 if any rally occurs (which is unlikely given current sentiment).

Step 4: Moving Averages (MA)

• All short and medium-term moving averages (20, 50-day) are now well above current price: these will act as dynamic resistance in the coming days.
• The distance from price to MA is extreme (>40%)—typically, such large gaps do not get filled quickly, especially after a fundamental break. No bullish moving average crossover present.

Step 5: Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): At this pace, RSI (14d, estimate) is likely deeply oversold (<25) post-crash, but oversold can persist for extended periods after fundamental shocks.
• MACD: Both MACD line and signal line would be pointed sharply negative, with growing divergence, signaling persistent negative momentum.
• ADX (Average Directional Index): Would show a high reading, reflecting extremely strong trend (downwards), confirming bears are in full control.

Step 6: Chart Patterns and Candlesticks

• The ultra-high-volume bearish gap and persistent red candles constitute an institutional-level breakdown (not just retail panic). No reversal candidates (like hammers/dojis) are present on the June 27 hourly or closing candle.
• There’s also a lack of significant lower shadow, indicating little dip-buying interest. This is classic for continued unwinding and further downside.

Step 7: Gap Analysis

• Massive gap down from ~$7.71 to ~$3.61 will likely persist – post-gap price rarely fills rapidly after such news, and instead often retest or drift even lower over days.

Step 8: Volatility Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Likely exploded to multi-year highs—risk is huge for both sides, but trend/volatility favor shorts.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is hugging or exceeding the lower band, a sign of ‘walkdown’—suggesting no meaningful reversal until selling exhausts.

Step 9: Fundamental Overlay & News Context

• (NOTE: No news provided, but the magnitude/volume of the breakdown suggests a likely negative fundamental event: failed phase trial, FDA rejection, or similar. Even in absence of headline details, the price action is all we need for tactical trading.)

Step 10: Synthesis & Price Prediction

• All observed evidence supports continued weakness:
  • No reversal on the candlestick chart
  • No exhaustion of sellers
  • No high-volume green candle (capitulation bottom)
  • Massive psychological damage – institutions who are/were involved are likely exiting
• Expect a continued drift or further breakdown in the next 24h before bottoming chance arises
• Reasonable short-term downside targets: $3.32 (recent low), $3.20, and possibly $3.00 (next major psychological support)
• Rallies toward $3.60–$3.77 are likely to be sold

Step 11: Entry and Exit Optimization

• Optimal entry for short (Sell): As close to Friday’s close ($3.50) as possible, or on a weak rally toward $3.55–$3.60 (if pre-market bid up appears, fade it)
• Target: First exit $3.32 (intraday support). Aggressive traders can look for $3.10–$3.00 if downward momentum continues and no bullish reversal appears.
• Stop/Loss: Above $3.77 (breakdown resistance) – but, given volatility, wider (or tightly managed intraday) stops recommended

Conclusion: Initiate Short Position (Sell)

The dominant evidence—multi-timeframe, multi-indicator, and volume/price action—points overwhelmingly to the downside. The probability of further price erosion is high within the next 24h as the fallout from the historic selloff continues, with limited support until $3.30 or $3.00.

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Summary:

• Crash magnitude, failure to bounce, no reversal, and persistent volume = more downside ahead. Wait for stabilization before considering long exposure.
• Trade plan: Sell/short at $3.50–$3.55, cover at $3.32 (first support) or $3.10 if momentum persists.

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