AMAT at the 78.6% Wall: Buy the OPEX Dip into $189 for a Run at $193

Overview and context

• Ticker: AMAT (Applied Materials)
• Current price: $190.10 (as of 2025-09-19 ~21:00 UTC)
• Session range (9/19): $188.66 – $191.85; Close: $190.10; Elevated OPEX-related volume late in the day (pin risk near 190 round number)
• Prior session (9/18): Gap-and-go day; Open $188.00, High $191.55, Low $183.83, Close $189.76 on 15.47M shares (well above recent average)

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Trend structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Higher highs and higher lows from early September (9/3 close $156.25) to present. Price reclaimed and is now extended above short- and intermediate-term moving averages, indicating a strong uptrend.
• Regime shift: After a heavy selloff bottoming mid-August (8/15 close $161.76 on outsized volume), price built a base 156–165, then stair-stepped higher into mid-September, culminating in a large upside gap on 9/18. This is a classic change-of-character from distribution to accumulation/momentum.

2. Moving averages (momentum and extension)

• 20-day SMA (approx): Using last 20 closes, SMA20 ≈ $167.18. Price at $190.10 is ~13.7% above the 20-SMA — an overextension that often leads to short-term consolidation/pullback before continuation.
• 50/100/200-day (directional bias): While exact values aren’t computed here, given price action since May, AMAT is trading above its 50- and 200-day MAs. This supports a bullish intermediate-term bias even if short-term is overbought.
• Slope: Short and intermediate MAs are curling up, confirming momentum and trend resumption post-August flush.

3. RSI, Stochastics, ROC (overbought/oversold)

• RSI(14): Approx calculation from the last 14 closes yields RSI ≈ 83 (very overbought). This doesn’t imply imminent reversal by itself, but it raises odds of a pause or shallow dip.
• Stochastics: Likely >80, consistent with overbought momentum regime.
• 10-day ROC: Roughly +16% from early September to now. Strong momentum often persists but tends to consolidate after a large gap day.

4. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels (volatility and squeeze/expansion)

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): With SMA20 ≈ $167.2, price near $190 implies a close above the upper band (upper band likely near ~$188). This is a volatility expansion signal; after two closes near/above the band, mean reversion to the upper band or mid-band pullbacks are common within 1–3 sessions.
• Keltner Channels (ATR-based): Price is riding or slightly above the upper Keltner, confirming trend strength but signaling extension.

5. ATR and expected range

• ATR(14) (est.): ~4.8–5.5. Given recent ranges (notably 9/18 range ~ $7.7), using ~5 as a working ATR is reasonable. Expected next-session range could be ~±$2.5 around the pivot in normal conditions, wider if momentum continues.

6. Volume, OBV, and accumulation/distribution

• Volume spike on 9/18 (15.5M) with strong close suggests institutional participation. 9/19 saw late-day heavy prints around the close (likely OPEX pinning). OBV would be breaking higher, confirming accumulation.
• Conclusion: Momentum is sponsored by volume — constructive for trend continuation after digestion.

7. Price levels: support/resistance and pivots

• Short-term support: S1 pivot ~ $188.56; round number $190 as a magnet/pin; gap-day anchored VWAP (approx) near $188.8–$189.2; 9/18 low $183.83 (major gap support); 9/11 breakout zone ~$170.15 now far below.
• Short-term resistance: R1 pivot ~ $191.75; R2 pivot ~ $193.39; 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (see below) sits near $190.26 (already in play); prior July resistance band $192–$196; July swing high $199–$200.
• Classical Pivots (based on 9/19 H/L/C: 191.85/188.66/190.10):
  • Pivot P ≈ $190.20
  • R1 ≈ $191.75, R2 ≈ $193.39
  • S1 ≈ $188.56, S2 ≈ $187.01
• Expect price to oscillate around P ≈ $190.20 with tests of S1 or R1 as liquidity nodes.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing: 7/10 high to 8/15 low)

• Swing high (7/10): ~$198.03; swing low (8/15): ~$161.76; range = $36.27
• 61.8% retrace: 161.76 + 0.618×36.27 ≈ $184.17 (already reclaimed decisively)
• 78.6% retrace: 161.76 + 0.786×36.27 ≈ $190.26 (current price cluster/resistance)
• 100%: $198.03 (next major upside waypoint after consolidation)
• Interpretation: Price is stalling precisely around the 78.6% retracement and round-number 190 — a logical pause zone before attempting $193–196 and eventually $198–200 if trend persists.

9. Candlestick diagnostics

• 9/18: Large bullish candle (gap-and-go) — initiative buying.
• 9/19: Small real body/spinning top near highs with an upper wick into ~$191.85 and close ~$190.10 — indecision after a surge, consistent with digestion/consolidation rather than immediate reversal.

10. Market microstructure and OPEX dynamics

• 9/19 is monthly OPEX; observed pinning near $190 late session. This can suppress directional moves into the close and can unwind the next session (often producing early mean reversion moves Monday). Expect Monday’s first hour to probe one of S1 ($188.6) or R1 ($191.8) swiftly.

11. Ichimoku context (trend and extension)

• Price is well above the cloud; Tenkan above Kijun; Chikou likely above price. Bullish configuration, but distance from Kijun suggests elevated risk of a pullback toward fast averages if momentum cools.

12. Elliott wave/structure (heuristic)

• Post-August low, we can label a 5-wave impulsive advance from early Sept: wave 1 to ~170, wave 2 to ~163, wave 3 to ~178, wave 4 ~172–173, and a wave 5 extension propelled by the 9/18 gap toward 191. If this labeling holds, a minor ABC consolidation around 188–192 would be typical before another push to 195–198.

13. VWAP/Anchored VWAP and round-number confluence

• Approx anchored VWAP to gap day (9/18) sits around $188.9–$189.2 (est.), aligning with S1 ($188.6) and the round $189 handle — a strong tactical dip-buy zone if tested.

14. Pattern and probability synthesis

• Bullish evidence:
  • Strong trend, reclaim of major MAs, rising OBV, gap-and-go with volume, price above cloud.
  • Higher highs/lows since early September.
• Cautionary evidence:
  • RSI >80 and price above upper Bollinger/Keltner channels — short-term overbought.
  • Price parked at 78.6% Fib and round-number/option pin area ($190), often a stalling zone.
• Base case (next 24h): Consolidation with a bullish bias if $188.5–$189 holds. Expect a probe lower early (to S1/AVWAP area), then an attempt to retake the pivot and test R1. Continuation attempt to R2 (~$193.4) is plausible if buyers defend $188.5 on first test.
• Alternate (less likely near-term): Lose $188.5 decisively, which opens $187.0 (S2) and the top of the 9/18 gap. A deeper fill toward $185–$184 would require a risk-off tape or sector weakness.

15. Statistical/behavioral context of gap-and-go

• Large upside gaps with strong closes often see a one- to two-day digestion phase. A shallow pullback (0.5–1.0×ATR) into support before continuation is common. That maps here to $188.5–$189.5 as a high-odds buy-the-dip area.

Trading plan (next 24 hours)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip in an uptrend, using OPEX pin fade and overbought consolidation to enter near support rather than chase highs.
• Entry (limit): $188.9 (confluence of S1 $188.6, AVWAP 9/18 est. ~$189, and round-number/Friday pin underside). If the market gaps up above R1 and holds, consider a momentum add-on only on reclaim of $191.8 with volume, but the primary plan is a pullback fill first.
• Target (take profit within 24h): $193.4 (R2 pivot), where supply should emerge; secondary stretch $196 if momentum accelerates, but base plan books at R2.
• Risk (for completeness): A prudent stop would be below S2 ~$187.0 or tighter below $187.5 depending on risk tolerance; not part of the requested output but essential for execution.

Catalyst and sector read-through

• Semis have been strong into mid-September; the post-OPEX Monday tape will be informative. In absence of a negative macro/sector catalyst, dip-buyers are likely to defend $188–$189.

24-hour price path forecast

• Expected path: Early dip to $188.6–$189.2 -> reclaim pivot ~$190.2 -> test R1 $191.7 -> optional extension to R2 $193.4 if breadth cooperates. Failure to hold $188.5 invalidates the long and risks a slide to $187.0.

Bottom line

• Strong uptrend with near-term overbought conditions argues for a tactical long on weakness rather than chasing. Buy the pullback into $188.9 with a target at $193.4 aligns with the prevailing momentum while respecting the overextended state.