Amber International Holding Lim Price Analysis Powered by AI

AMBR’s Volcanic Gap Fades at VWAP: Short the 2.60 Pivot, Aim for a Slide Toward 2.22

Executive summary

AMBR printed a climactic gap-up day, opening 70% above the prior close (O: 2.70 vs 1.58), pushing to 3.16, then fading to close at 2.47 (below intraday VWAP ~2.54–2.56) on extraordinary volume. The candle structure is a wide-range, red “gap-and-fade” day with a long upper wick — classic distribution after a parabolic pop inside a longer-term downtrend. Probability-weighted expectation for the next 24 hours: a choppy open, a test of the 2.58–2.65 VWAP/pivot band, and a fade toward 2.30–2.25. Base-case bias: short on strength into 2.58–2.62.

Step-by-step technical analysis and tools used

Higher time frame: Persistent downtrend from ~7.0 (late July) to 1.24 (Nov 19), with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Today’s spike lifts price, but it remains below likely declining 50-DMA; the primary trend is still bearish.
Short term: A one-day momentum burst from extreme oversold, but failure to hold gains. Close below the session VWAP indicates net distribution into strength.

Daily bar (O: 2.70, H: 3.16, L: 2.30, C: 2.47): Red wide-range candle after a big gap — effectively a shooting-star/long upper wick variant. This often signals exhaustion when it closes below VWAP and below the open.
Intraday tape (30–60 min slices): Price rejected 2.89–3.16 early, then multiple lower highs near 2.65–2.70 and weak close. After-hours rebound to 2.57 had light/no volume — not reliable.

Volume exploded (daily ~89.4M vs tens of thousands prior), pointing to event-driven flow and potential blow-off. Intraday, the heaviest prints occurred during the fade, consistent with supply hitting bids.
OBV conceptually spikes but fails to make new highs vs price high — suggests churn, not accumulation.

Session VWAP cluster ~2.54–2.56. Close 2.47 is below VWAP = net seller control into the close.
Expect early retest of VWAP/pivot band 2.58–2.65; failure there typically invites a fresh leg down to 2.35–2.25.

Resistance: 2.58–2.65 (VWAP + daily pivot), 2.78–2.80 (intraday supply shelf), 3.00/3.16 (R1/high).
Support: 2.40–2.42 (intraday shelf), 2.30 (today’s low), 2.20–2.22 (gap ledge), 2.10 (S1 vicinity), 1.78–1.80 (S2/past range top).

Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 2.643
R1 ≈ 2.987; S1 ≈ 2.127
R2 ≈ 3.503; S2 ≈ 1.783
The pivot at ~2.64 coincides with VWAP/recent rejection zone — a high-confluence sell area.

RSI(14): Likely rebounded from oversold (<30) toward mid-40s/50 but finished the day weak — momentum improved but not dominant; no overbought close.
MACD: Early bullish crossover trigger is likely forming after the thrust, but with a red close and long-term downtrend, cross reliability is lower unless price reclaims/holds >2.65 on volume.
Stochastics: Shot up intraday then curled down with the fade — typical of pop-and-fade days.

20-D SMA likely around ~1.6–1.7 pre-jump; price is extended above 20-D by ~45–55% after the gap — prone to mean reversion.
50-D SMA likely well above current price (given prior 3–5 handles in Sept/Oct), so the stock remains below medium-term trend resistance — broader downtrend intact.

ATR expansion: Today’s true range ≈ 0.86 vs recent ~0.15–0.25 — volatility regime shift. Next-day implied range remains large (~0.45–0.70).
Bollinger Bands: Price likely pierced the upper band intraday and closed near/just above it; historical tendency favors an inside day or partial reversion toward the median in the following session if no fresh catalyst.

Intraday swing (L 2.30 → H 3.16, Δ=0.86): Closing at 2.47 sits between the 78.6% (≈2.48) and 88.6% (≈2.40) retracement levels — a deep retrace indicative of weak demand into the close.
From prior close (1.58) to today’s H (3.16), price closed back below the 61.8% expansion level relative to that base — another sign of insufficient follow-through.

Price remains below the Kumo; Kijun likely higher (~2.8–3.0). Chikou would still be under price/overhang. Net signal: bearish bias unless 2.70–2.90 is reclaimed and held.

ADX on higher timeframes has favored the downtrend. One-day pop without base-building typically fails unless confirmed by second-day breadth above VWAP/pivot. Today’s fade argues continuation risk lower.

In small-cap/micro-cap names with multi-month downtrends, large gap-ups that close below VWAP often see: (a) early pop toward prior supply, (b) lower high vs day-one VWAP/2.60–2.65, (c) session fade toward day-one low or prior shelf. Odds favor mean reversion unless VWAP is cleanly reclaimed on strong volume.

Base case (55–60%): Early push into 2.58–2.65 meets supply, rejection leads to 2.35–2.25; intraday low risk test ~2.30; late day stabilizes ~2.28–2.34; close around 2.30.
Bull case (25–30%): Strong open, VWAP reclaim and hold above 2.65 with rising volume; squeeze toward 2.80–2.99 (R1 test), maybe 3.05–3.16 retest if momentum persists.
Bear tail (10–15%): Immediate weakness through 2.40/2.30, air pocket to 2.20–2.13 (S1 vicinity); if liquidity thin, overshoot toward 2.00 before a reflex bounce.

Bias: Sell strength into confluence resistance.
Optimal short entry zone: 2.58–2.62 (VWAP/pivot band, recent rejection area). If no pop, secondary entry: breakdown add under 2.45 with confirmation (but primary plan is to sell the pop).
Profit target (next 24h): 2.22 (above deeper support and ahead of S1), with an initial scale-out near 2.30–2.32 if offered quickly; runner toward 2.22.
Risk management (advisory): Logical invalidation above 2.70–2.76 (above pivot and supply shelf). Micro-cap volatility can squeeze fast — size appropriately and respect hard stops.

A decisive reclaim/hold above 2.65–2.70 on rising, persistent volume, converting VWAP/pivot from resistance to support. That would open 2.80–3.00 and force a rethink toward a momentum long.

Prediction (24h)

Range expectation: ~2.15–2.70.
Likely path: Early test of 2.58–2.65, failure, drift to 2.30–2.25, close near 2.30 (barring new catalysts).

Note: This is a high-volatility, event-driven tape. Use strict risk controls. This is not financial advice.