Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

1. Trend Analysis

• Long-term Trend (90-Day, Daily Chart): AMZN has experienced a major rally, moving from the $160s in April 2025 to highs near $236 at end of July before a sharp correction.
• Recent Price Action: After posting an all-time high of $236.95 on July 31, the stock gapped down to around $217 on August 1, then fell further intraday to $211.65 by August 4 close, now attempting consolidation.
• Trend Reversal? Multiple large-volume days coincide with major price reversals (Jul 31 and Aug 1; see >100M shares traded), suggesting institutional distribution at the top, followed by panic selling.

2. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Major Support Zones: $208–$214 (last tested and held Mar, May, and June); next possible support at $205/$201.
• Major Resistance: $217 (short-term); $225, $232.80, and the all-time high at $236.95.
• Current Price Proximity: $211.65 is at the lower end of major recent support; a break below $211 calls for a further test of $208 and $205.

3. Volume Analysis

• Climax Volumes: The biggest volume days (Jul 31–Aug 1) accompanied a blow-off top → distribution, then panic liquidation; follow-through volumes remain elevated but less climactic, consistent with volatility spike and corrective activity.
• August 4 Session: Volume is still very high (75.9M shares), suggesting active large trader participation. No clear capitulation bottom.

4. Candle and Price Pattern Recognition

• Gap Down & Wide-Range Bar: Massive gap on Aug 1 from $234 to $217.2 (down ~8%)—this is highly bearish.
• Intraday Pattern (Aug 4, 2025, 1H chart): Attempts a minor bounce, but all rallies above $213 get aggressively sold; large upper wick during 12:00–13:00 session with high volatility ($236.95 high to $217.3 close), showing disorderly selling.
• Short-term Pattern: Bearish consolidation/descending triangle from $217–$211 on intraday timeframes.

5. RSI, Stochastics, and Other Oscillators

• Estimated RSI: After such a sharp selloff and decline from $236 to $211, RSI on daily is likely now in the 35-45 zone, trending lower but not yet 'oversold' (<30); rapid momentum loss suggests risk of further downside.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Would likely be crossing below 20 on 1H/4H/1D, supporting ongoing downside pressure (confirming short signal).

6. Moving Averages

• 50-Day MA: Likely in the $220–$225 range, above current price, now acting as resistance.
• 200-Day MA: Could be near $205; potential magnet if downward momentum continues.
• Short-term MA (10/20-period): Slope is downward, all above current price; confirmation of bearish trend.

7. Fibonacci Retracement (From $160s to $236 highs)

• Key Levels:
  • 23.6%: $186
  • 38.2%: $200
  • 50%: ~$198
  • 61.8%: ~$187
• Current Zone: Trading just above the 38.2% fib retrace; risk of further testing lower fib levels ($200–$205) if $211 fails to hold.

8. MACD

• MACD histogram is likely below zero after rapid selloff, signaling negative momentum; MACD line is likely starting to move well below signal, indicating further downside risk.

9. Bollinger Bands

• After such a sharp downward move, the price is hugging or piercing the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting volatility. Historically, this can precede a technical bounce, but with heavy volume and lack of stabilization, breakdown risk remains high.

10. Volume Profile/Order Flow

• High volume node around $215–$220 (heavy battle of buyers and sellers previously); now acting as major resistance.
• Liquidity gap to the $205–$208 area; if $211 breaks, rapid move to $208 or $205 is highly probable due to lack of significant prior trading in that range.

11. GAP Analysis

• Gap Down Zone: Massive open gap from $234 to $217 left on Aug 1. Unlikely to be filled immediately without a significant reversal catalyst (news/earnings).

12. News/Sentiment (Inferred)

• Institutional Selling: Extremely high volume at the top indicates distribution (possibly after earnings or guidance disappointment).
• Momentum: The violent unwinding suggests negative headlines or a sector-wide derisking event.

13. Statistical Volatility (ATR)

• ATR (Average True Range): Exploded from standard $2–3 to ~$4–7 daily, reflecting trader panic.

14. Elliott Wave & Price Structure

• The move from $160s to $236 fits a classic 5-wave impulsive advance; the current pullback (sharp, aggressive) is consistent with start of an ABC type correction with A-wave possibly ending near $211, B-wave relief rally would struggle at $217–$220.

15. Implied Probability and Sentiment

• Put/Call Skew: (Implied) Likely strongly put-skewed given such aggressive downside and heavy volume on the drop.
• Sentiment: Bearish, with no evidence of capitulation or reversal.

SYNTHESIS & 24-HOUR PRICE PREDICTION

• The breakdown from $217 support, heavy volume on down days, aggressive rejection of rallies, and no stabilization pattern indicate that the stock is in high-risk territory for further downside.
• Psychological anchors ($210, $208, $205, $200) remain short-term targets; breakdown of $211 could quickly bring a flush toward $208 or even $205 within a session or two.
• While short-term bounces/relief rallies from deeply oversold conditions can happen, the technical setup is bearish, and the path of least resistance is lower. There is a liquidity gap between $211 and $205, so a breach of $211 could lead to rapid acceleration downward.

COMBINED RECOMMENDATION

SELL (Short position)

• Optimal Entry: On a failed bounce to $213–$214, or on clear breakdown below $211.50.
• Exit/Target: $205, which is a strong technical target due to historical support, fib retracement proximity, and 200DMA confluence.

Conclusion: High-probability short-side setup for next 24 hours as long as price remains below $214.

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