Amazon.com, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

AMZN Presses Into 238–240 Supply: Tactical Short Setup as the Bounce Meets Resistance

Multi‑timeframe technical read (AMZN) — data through 2026‑01‑23 15:16 UTC

1) Market structure & trend (Daily)

Primary trend (Sep → early Nov): strong uptrend into a peak close near 254 (2025‑11‑03) after the earnings gap/repricing (10‑31 close 244.22 after 10‑30 close 222.86). That move created a higher‑high / higher‑low sequence.
Mid‑trend correction (Nov → mid Dec): a clear pullback / distribution phase: 254 → ~222 by 11‑18 with elevated volume (60M+), suggesting institutional selling and volatility expansion.
Base & range (mid Nov → early Jan): price spent weeks oscillating roughly 222–233, then broke higher in early Jan.
Recent swing (Jan): breakout run 226.5 (01‑02) → 247.38 (01‑09) followed by a sharp pullback to 231 (01‑20).
Current position: rebound to 237.65 today.

Interpretation: The larger trend is still constructively bullish versus the Sep base, but the Jan pullback damaged momentum and turned the tape into a recovery bounce inside a post‑pullback consolidation rather than a clean continuation.

2) Support/Resistance mapping (Daily)

Using repeated closes and reaction points:

Immediate resistance zone: 238.5–240.0
- Multiple pivots: 01‑15 close 238.18, 01‑16 close 239.12, and 01‑06 close 240.93. This is a “memory” area where prior support turned into resistance.
Upper resistance / supply: 245–247.5
- Recent swing highs 01‑08 to 01‑09.
Nearest supports:
- 234.0–235.0 (yesterday close 234.34; today’s session traded around mid‑234s before pushing higher)
- 231.0–232.0 (01‑20 close 231.00, 01‑21 close 231.31) — key swing support.
Major support: 226–228 (multiple December/early Jan interactions).

Interpretation: Current price 237.65 is pressing into resistance (238–240). Upside exists, but risk of a near‑term fade rises as price approaches that band.

3) Momentum diagnostics (price action + RSI logic)

While exact RSI requires full computation, the structure allows inference:

The move 247 → 231 in ~7 sessions is a momentum reset (likely pushed RSI from overbought/strong to neutral/weak).
The rebound 231 → 237.65 is a retracement bounce, not yet a full trend resumption.
A common behavior after such a drop: first bounce stalls near the breakdown area (here: 238–241) before either:
- rolling over to retest 234/231, or
- consolidating then pushing to 245–247.

Interpretation: Momentum is recovering, but not proven above 240; probability favors chop / mean reversion around this resistance.

4) Moving averages (contextual, based on levels)

The dense clustering of closes around 229–233 through December implies the short/intermediate MAs (10–20–50d) are likely rising but close together.
Price at 237–238 is likely above the 20d and attempting to reclaim the 50d area (often near the middle of the recent range).

Interpretation: This is typically a decision point: rejection at 238–240 often produces a pullback; acceptance above 240 improves odds of a continuation leg.

5) Volatility & range behavior (ATR / true range logic)

Recent daily ranges expanded notably during:
- 01‑02 (235.46 high / 224.70 low)
- the Jan selloff (multi‑day declines)
Today’s partial day: 234.57 → 237.82 already ~1.4%+ intraday move.

Interpretation: With volatility elevated, mean‑reversion around key levels becomes more likely intraday; breakouts need confirmation (ideally a strong close above 240 with volume).

6) Volume / participation

The biggest distribution volume in this dataset is 10‑31 (166M) and 10‑30 (102M) around the repricing.
January rally days had ~35–54M; the pullback days are also ~41–47M, i.e., selling not “weak”.
Today’s volume at the timestamp (~6.8M) is partial; not enough to confirm a breakout.

Interpretation: No clear volume confirmation that today’s push through the mid‑230s is a durable breakout; it still looks like a bounce leg.

7) Candlestick / pattern read

01‑20/01‑21 formed a short‑term base around 231 (two closes ~231). That’s a classic selling climax → stabilization pattern.
01‑22 rebound close 234.34 and 01‑23 extension to 237.65 suggests a two‑day relief rally.
Relief rallies frequently pause at first supply (again: 238–240).

Interpretation: Pattern favors near‑term stalling unless price can decisively reclaim 240.

8) Intraday (hourly) microstructure

From the provided hourly series (01‑22 to 01‑23):

Price spent significant time 234–235, then impulsed into 237.8.
That behavior often indicates stop‑runs / breakout probing into a known resistance band.

Interpretation: After an impulsive push, the next 24 hours often show pullback toward the breakout origin (234.8–235.5) before choosing direction.

24‑hour outlook (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): sideways-to-down mean reversion

Expect a pullback from 238–240 into 235–236, with risk of a deeper retest 234; only if broader tech is weak would 231–232 come into play within 24h. Alternative case (lower probability but important): acceptance above 240
If AMZN holds >240 and pushes, next magnet becomes 242.5–245, then 247.

Given current placement just under resistance and lack of breakout confirmation, the more tactical 24‑hour trade is to fade the resistance.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

Bias: Short‑term Sell (Short) against resistance.

Rationale: price is late in the bounce, entering a well-defined supply zone (238–240) after a volatile downswing; mean reversion is favored over immediate trend continuation.

Optimal open (entry) price: 239.20

This is inside the resistance band but not all the way at 240 (improves fill probability if price tags the zone and rolls).

Take‑profit (close) price: 235.20

Targets the prior congestion/rotation area (numerous prints around 234.8–235.5). This is a realistic 24‑hour magnet if rejection occurs.

Risk note (not requested but critical): A sustained push and hold above 240.50–241.00 would weaken the short thesis and increases odds of continuation toward 245.