Amazon (AMZN): Bullish Ascending Triangle Poised for Breakout — Prime Opportunity to Buy on Weakness

Full Technical Analysis for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — 2025-06-02

1. Trend Analysis

Daily Perspective:

• From February 2025 through the present, AMZN exhibited noticeable volatility—a sharp decline from highs around $237 in early February, bottoming near $162 (April 7), then rebounding strongly into the $190–211 range throughout May, and most recently consolidating around $205.
• The current price of $205.01 hovers near significant short-term resistance and follows recent tests of the $206-207 level.
• The longer-term trend is still up: the stock has made higher lows since the April bottom, and recent pullbacks have been shallow, with buyers stepping in repeatedly near $200.

Intraday Perspective:

• Intraday charts for June 2 show a flat, tight range (roughly $204-$206 for the day, low volume in pre-market, heavier at open and lunch hour) suggesting current equilibrium but with a slight positive tilt by the growing higher lows on hourly bars.

2. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Support: $200.00 — Psychological and volume-supported floor
• Near-term Support: $203.00–$204.00 — demonstrated in Monday’s pre-market and opening swing lows
• Major Resistance: $207.00 — intraday/week high, ceiling over several recent sessions
• Minor Resistance: $205.50 — acted as intraday cap

3. Volume & Price Action Analysis

• Recent sessions show decreasing volume as price consolidates, indicating that selling pressure has abated and market participants await further catalysts.
• Spikes in volume on breaks above $205 have thus far failed to sustain a move, showing supply but also healthy absorption by buyers.
• Notable, however, is the repeated ability of AMZN to recover from opening losses and close near daily highs—suggesting accumulation.

4. Technical Indicators

Moving Averages:

• 20-day SMA (estimated): ~$203.30 — current price above, bullish short-term sentiment
• 50-day SMA (estimated): ~$191.50 — strong overall trend support

RSI (14, Daily):

• Estimated at ~62 — approaching, but not over, overbought territory, allowing for further upside

MACD:

• Crossing bullish recently, indicating resumption of upward momentum after consolidation

5. Chart Patterns

• Ascending Triangle (mid-May to current): Repeated highs at $206–$207 with rising lows from $200 — bullish continuation setup
• Rounded bottom (April 7-April 29): Signaled a durable reversal after prolonged selloff

6. Candlestick Analysis

• Recent daily candles show minimal upper wicks, healthy closes near highs: buyers in control
• No evidence of major reversal patterns (no shooting stars, no gravestone dojis, etc.)

7. Gap Analysis

• Large gap up post-earnings (May 12), holding most of the gains and trading in higher range since then (> $200). Gaps have not filled, underscoring strength

8. Volatility Measures (ATR)

• 14-day ATR: ~$4.60 — moderate intraday range, but presently squeezing tighter. Implies a potential impending breakout from range

9. Sentiment and Positioning

• Institutional volume and price structure show little distribution. Periodic spikes in volume on advances. Strong hands present.
• Possible upside catalyst if $207 breached with volume; weak hands could exit if price dips below $200.

10. Fibonacci Retracement (from 2025 February high ~$239 to April low ~$162):

• Key levels:
  • 38.2%: ~$191.60 (already cleared)
  • 50%: ~$200.50 (support)
  • 61.8%: ~$209.30 (next upside target)

Combined Conclusions

• Overall Bias: Bullish continuation in play — consolidation at higher range above major support, coiled for further upside.
• Short-term Catalyst: Break of $207 will attract momentum traders, with $209-211 as initial extension targets (Fibo, recent highs, round number).
• Downside structure strong near $203–204; tight stops emerge below $202 for bulls, suggesting relatively low immediate risk.

Trade Plan

• Buy (Long Position) favored:
  • Enter on slight retracement near $204.00–204.30 for optimal risk/reward
  • First profit target: $209.00 (Fibo 61.8% + extension range)
  • Stop: Below $202.00

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Summary: Amazon is in a healthy technical uptrend, consolidating above near-term support in a bullish continuation pattern. The preconditions for a breakout are visible, and upside targets have further room (to $209–211) with manageable risk under current support levels. Waiting for a minor dip to enter long offers best reward-to-risk; momentum traders will chase a $207 breakout but optimal entries are found pre-break at support.