APLT: Capitulation Flush Sets the Stage for a 24-Hour Relief Bounce Toward 0.33

Summary view

• Instrument: Applied Therapeutics, Inc. (APLT)
• Currency: USD
• Current price reference: 0.2842
• Regime: Ultra–high-volatility micro-cap biotech, post-capitulation with massive gap-down and heavy overhead supply. Prime conditions for short-horizon mean reversion bounces but with extreme tail risk.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure and context

• Daily trend: Strong downtrend since late October. After a September squeeze to ~1.24 and an October range 1.00–1.50, price collapsed 11/13–11/14 to 0.27/0.218 on extraordinary volume. This is a classic capitulation flush. Price now trades 70–80% below October values, indicating a broken longer-term structure, but near-term is dominated by liquidation/short-covering dynamics.
• Recent extremes:
  • 11/13: Close ~0.27 on 44.8M shares
  • 11/14: Low ~0.218, close ~0.218 on 42.7M shares (selling climax)
  • 11/17 (intraday): Range 0.2211–0.4000 with successive waves of buying and profit-taking; heavy volume blocks concentrated 0.27–0.33 and 0.34–0.39; last print ~0.2842–0.3182 range late session.
• Immediate structure (Wyckoff lens):
  • SC (Selling Climax) ~0.218 on 11/14
  • AR (Automatic Rally) to ~0.4000 intra on 11/17
  • ST (Secondary Test) intraday back to ~0.27–0.29 zone
  • Current: Oscillating within 0.22–0.40 developing range; midrange ~0.31
  • Expect continued price discovery inside this box until a clear sign of accumulation or a fresh fundamental shock.

2. Volume, liquidity and order flow

• Volume expansion: 11/13–11/17 printed multiple nine-figure share blocks intraday (e.g., 98M+ at 14:30, 142M+ at 15:30, 111M+ at 16:30, 143M+ at 17:30 on 11/17). This indicates forced deleveraging, possible deal/offering supply, and opportunistic short-term trading.
• Volume profile (11/17 session): Pronounced volume shelves at 0.27–0.30 and 0.33–0.36. The 0.29–0.31 “node” likely acts as a VWAP magnet/resistance-turned-balance area near term; 0.27–0.28 acts as responsive dip-bid area; 0.34–0.36 is where late chasers got trapped.
• Overhead supply: Enormous from 0.30–0.50 and again 1.00+ (legacy bagholders). Any push into 0.33–0.36 should meet supply.

3. Key levels

• Support: 0.221–0.228 (11/14 and 11/17 extremes), 0.258–0.262 (intraday pullback shelf), 0.276–0.288 (61.8% retrace of 0.218→0.400 and high-volume node)
• Pivot/mid: ~0.301–0.305 (classical PP from 11/17 and session mid)
• Resistance: 0.330–0.335 (38.2% retrace and volume shelf), 0.348–0.360 (shelf/failed breakout zone), 0.382–0.400 (R1/AR high; strong supply)

4. Classical pivots (using 11/17 H/L/C ≈ 0.4000/0.2211/0.2842)

• PP ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.3018 (expect mean reversion toward PP)
• R1 ≈ 0.3825; S1 ≈ ~0.2036 (below recent low, unlikely unless fresh shock)
• R2 ≈ 0.4807; S2 ≈ 0.1229 (improbable in 24h absent new negative catalyst)

5. Fibonacci mapping (swing 0.218 → 0.400)

• Range R = 0.182
• 61.8% from high: 0.400 − 0.618×0.182 ≈ 0.2875 (proximate to current price; acts as support)
• 50%: ≈ 0.309 (near PP and session VWAP magnet)
• 38.2%: ≈ 0.3305 (first resistance/shelf)
• Implication: Price hovering at 61.8% encourages bounce attempts back to 0.309–0.331 if sellers pause.

6. Moving averages (approximations from visible series)

• Daily: Price is far below 20/50/200-DMA; trend is decisively down. However, distance from 20-DMA is extreme (likely >3 ATR below), historically increasing odds of short-term mean reversion.
• Intraday (15–60m): Price oscillated above/below session VWAP with late-day fade; short MAs curling on low timeframes with wide dispersion—typical of post-capitulation basing attempts.

7. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Deeply oversold (estimated sub-20 after multi-day collapse). RSI(2–5) extremely washed-out with snapback propensity.
• Intraday RSI/MACD: Bullish momentum burst from ~0.28 to 0.40, then consolidation. Pullback to ~0.28 printed higher-momentum lows versus 11/14 absolute low—constructive bullish divergence on short timeframes.
• Stochastics: Likely crossing up from oversold on 15–30m, supportive of a tactical bounce.

8. Bollinger Bands and volatility

• Daily Bands: Massive expansion; closes below lower band on 11/13–11/14 indicate statistically rare stretch. Reversions toward the band midline are common once selling pressure relents; in the very near term, that midline is far away, but intraday reversion toward PP/VWAP is probable.
• ATR: 14-day ATR ballooned (rough est. 0.20–0.30). Expect 24h realized range of ~0.08–0.12 around the mean, equating to 28–40% swings on a 0.28 base—risk management is paramount.

9. VWAP and Anchored VWAPs

• Session VWAP (11/17) likely ~0.30–0.31 given trade distribution. Price below VWAP into the close but not far; typical next-day behavior is an early test of VWAP if overnight news is quiet.
• Anchored VWAP from 11/14 SC: would sit around low 0.29–0.31 given subsequent distributions—again emphasizing the 0.30–0.31 magnet zone.

10. Candlestick and pattern read

• 11/14 daily: Potential hammer/long lower shadow at 0.218 suggests capitulation.
• 11/17 intraday: Large bullish impulse (0.28 → 0.40) followed by orderly retracement into the golden zone (50–61.8%). That three-leg sequence is characteristic of a dead-cat bounce setup; often there’s a secondary push toward 0.31–0.34 the next session before fresh decision.

11. Elliott/Wave structure (tactical)

• Wave A: 11/13–11/14 crash to 0.218
• Wave B: 11/17 bounce to 0.40
• Wave B retrace: Now near 61.8% of the B impulse, which favors a B continuation toward 0.33–0.36 before a potential Wave C fade later (beyond 24h horizon).

12. Market profile view (11/17)

• Value Area Low (VAL) est.: ~0.27–0.28; Point of Control (POC): ~0.30–0.31; Value Area High (VAH): ~0.33–0.34.
• Playbook: Responsive buyers at VAL; rotation toward POC; initiative sellers likely at VAH.

13. Risk factors and catalysts

• Unknown fundamental overhang (trial readout/CRL/offering risk). Any RNS/8-K can invalidate technicals.
• Microcap dynamics: Halts, gaps, and liquidity pockets. Tight risk controls required.

14. Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Mean reversion from 0.28–0.29 toward PP/VWAP 0.302–0.315 and tests of 0.33. Range expectation 0.27–0.34; intraday high-probability magnet 0.30–0.31.
• Bull case (20%): Squeeze through 0.331 holds above 0.335, quick extension to 0.35–0.38 as shorts cover; 0.40 retest possible only with fresh flows.
• Bear case (25%): Early bounce fails below 0.309 and breaks 0.276 support, probing 0.258 then 0.23–0.24; 0.221 low only if new negative catalyst hits.

15. Trade plan rationale (tactical long)

• Thesis: Price sits at 61.8% retracement of the 0.218→0.400 bounce, above the 11/14 SC, and near a high-volume node. With daily momentum washed out and 11/17 printing an AR, odds favor a reflex bounce toward the PP/VWAP magnet (~0.30–0.31) and resistance band (0.33–0.34) within 24h.
• Entry optimization: Staggered/limit entry near 0.276–0.286 zone improves R:R. Using 0.276 as optimal tag (beneath 61.8% support at ~0.2875) increases fill odds on a liquidity sweep.
• Take-profit: First objective 0.309–0.315 (PP/VWAP), second objective 0.33–0.34 (38.2% retrace and VAH). For this single-target plan, set TP at 0.338 to monetize the fuller rotation while staying below heavy 0.35–0.36 supply.
• Invalidation/stop (not requested but prudent): Below 0.258 (loss of VAL shelf), or hard fail through 0.248 if spreads widen. Expect slippage in extremes.

16. Bottom line

• Tactical bias: Buy-the-dip for a 24-hour relief bounce toward 0.31–0.34.
• Key magnet: 0.301–0.305.
• Strong resistance/sell zone: 0.33–0.36. Take profits into that band.
• Risk: A fresh negative headline or an at-the-market supply wave could force a 0.24–0.26 retest.

Prediction for the next 24 hours

• Expected path: Early chop 0.27–0.29, then rotation toward 0.30–0.31; if buyers sustain above PP, extension to 0.33–0.34. Probabilistic range: 0.26–0.35, with a closing bias near 0.31–0.33 barring news.