Applovin Corporation (APP) Technical Analysis & 24-Hour Price Forecast

1. Trend Analysis

Daily Trend (Medium-Term)

• Uptrend from late Jan to mid-February, marked by large price surges and volume spikes (see Feb 13–14) before correcting sharply down through March and April (trend reversal).
• Recent weeks show consolidation and base-building above $350, with a failed retest of highs near $380 and rejection.
• Current Price ($363.06) is below recent highs and near the middle-to-lower part of the May range, suggesting indecision and a fragile uptrend.

Intraday Trend (Short-Term)

• Hourly chart (past 24 hours) shows lower highs and lower lows, drifting from $370–$371 range down to $360–$363. This is a clear, minor downtrend.
• Momentum decline: Unable to reclaim $371–$372, with small volume rallies quickly faded.

2. Volume Profile

• Recent drops (May 20–21) happened on above-average volume during the US session, signaling distribution by larger players at higher levels.
• No significant buying footprints in the last 12 hours, confirming selling pressure dominates.

3. Support & Resistance

• Support: $358–$360 (tested multiple times in past 24 hours and held as an intraday floor); $350 (more significant, longer-term floor from March–April consolidations).
• Resistance: $370 (recent high attempt on May 20 failed); $380 (strong resistance from earlier in May).

4. Candlestick Patterns

• Intraday long upper wicks (esp. 13:00, 16:30, and 17:30 bars) show rejection of rallies.
• Bearish closes: Multiple hourly candles closing in the lower portion of their range, indicative of weak bull control. No bullish reversal hammer/spinning top in the most recent sessions.

5. Moving Averages

• Simple 20-period, 50-period on hourly: Both are above current price ($363), pointing down and acting as dynamic resistance.
• Perspective: Price failing to regain/hold above these MAs is bearish short-term.

6. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (14H): Estimated at 42–45—just above oversold, trending lower. Application: Bearish development, but not deeply oversold (room to drop further before reversal).
• MACD (Hourly): Negative histogram since past day, with the signal line below the baseline—momentum bearish and no cross foreseen yet.

7. Chart Patterns

• Falling Wedge: No reliable wedge or reversal base forming in hourly/daily—price action is more of a soft channel down.
• No double bottom nor V-shaped recovery pattern— consolidation likely to break lower, not higher.

8. Volatility Measures

• ATR (Average True Range): Elevated over prior days (esp. from May 8 onward), but has started to contract, suggesting potential for a fresh directional move as consolidation resolves.

9. Order Flow/Price Action

• Failed rallies above $370 over past sessions—supply appears between $370–$373.
• Multiple failed attempts to defend $363–$364, with price dropping toward $360 in pre-market. Suggests a likely retest and possible breakdown of that support soon.

10. Sentiment & Contextual Factors

• After a strong run-up and spike in volatility, the tape suggests exhaustion among buyers with sellers steadily gaining ground—a textbook setup for a short-term breakdown.

Synthesis/Probability-Weighted Forecast

• Short-term bias (next 24 hours): Bearish. Lags in rally attempts, fading momentum, and failed support retests predict a higher chance of further decline.
• Downside target: Next support at $358, then possibly $350 in a steeper drop.
• Upside risk: Could bounce to $370 (minor resistance), but odds less likely without a bullish catalyst or reversal candle.

Trade Plan

Strategy: Short/Sell.

• Open short/sell position as close to current price ($363) as possible (aiming for breakdown after pre-market weakness).
• Set initial profit target at $350 (historical strong support and oversold bounce area).
• Consider stop loss above $370 (recent resistance and intraday supply).

Rationale:

• Multiple technical tools (trend, momentum, price action, moving averages) point bearish.
• Favorable risk/reward: $13 risk (entry to $370) vs. $13+ reward (entry to $350).

If conditions change (e.g., strong reversal candle on hourly or bullish news), reassess bias, but currently sellers dominate.