ASST: Rejection At 1.45 Turns Tape Heavy — Fade Bounces Toward 1.30

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish to range-down. Expect a reflex bounce into 1.37–1.41 to be sold, with pullbacks probing 1.33 first and a fair chance to test 1.30–1.31; tail risk to 1.28 if momentum accelerates.
• Thesis: A failed retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement around 1.44–1.45 and repeated rejection near 1.50–1.52 has produced a sequence of lower highs. Today closed below the daily pivot S1 derived from Monday’s range, signaling supply dominance. Intraday VWAP resistance capped bounces. Multiple indicators (RSI, MACD, OBV, Ichimoku, Bollinger midline) lean risk-off. Optimal plan is to short a pop into nearby resistance.

Market structure and trend

• Higher-timeframe context: After the late-October gap-and-run from 1.10 to 1.64, price has been consolidating in a volatile range. The structure since the 1.72 spike on Nov 10 shows lower highs: 1.72 → 1.62 → 1.51 → 1.48 → 1.45 → 1.36 close. Support shelf persists at 1.25–1.33 (multiple daily pivots: Oct 29, Oct 30, Nov 3–4, Oct 31). This is a classic descending channel pressing into a demand zone.
• Daily trend: Mixed-to-down. Price sits below a falling 50-DMA and roughly around or slightly below the 20-DMA. Trend integrity favors a controlled drift lower until demand reasserts near 1.28–1.33.
• Intraday (Nov 11): Opened 1.44–1.45, sold to 1.33, bounced, and settled 1.36. Lower highs throughout the day; bounces consistently failed near VWAP/mid-zone. Tape shows distribution with heaviest prints on down legs (e.g., 19:30Z heavy volume dump toward 1.339).

Key levels

• Resistance: 1.37–1.41 (intraday VWAP/midday supply), 1.44–1.46 (daily 50% Fib and Monday’s breakdown zone), 1.50–1.52 (61.8% Fib cluster and repeated failure zone), 1.58–1.62 (swing lower-high region).
• Support: 1.33–1.35 (today’s defended lows), 1.30–1.31 (prior reaction low cluster), 1.28 (classic S2 pivot and demand edge), 1.25–1.27 (multi-day base), 1.21 (Oct 30 pivot and lower-band risk).

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (14, daily): Estimated high 30s to low 40s; below midpoint, consistent with sellers in control but not deeply oversold. Room remains to push into low 30s on another leg down.
• Stochastics (daily): Rolling over from mid-zone, confirming loss of momentum after the failed 1.50 retest.
• MACD (daily): Near flatline but curling negative; the histogram contracting below zero favors a continuation drift lower rather than a fresh impulse up.

Moving averages and mean reversion

• 9/20-EMA: Price lost the 9-EMA and is orbiting the 20-EMA; intraday inability to reclaim the fast EMA suggests sellers control rallies. Expect the 9-EMA to act as dynamic resistance on bounces.
• 50-DMA: Above price and declining; typical rally cap. Mean reversion toward the mid-Bollinger was achieved; the next move is often a tag of the lower band if VWAP supply persists.

Bollinger Bands and volatility

• Bands are moderately wide from prior spikes; price closed near the middle band. Rejection from upper band region on Nov 10–11 suggests probability skew toward a mid-to-lower band test. Daily ATR is roughly 0.14–0.18, consistent with a 24h envelope of 1.28–1.50, with the path of least resistance lower given the intraday distribution.

Volume, flow, and Wyckoff read

• Distribution day: Heavy selling prints during down-swings, especially the 19:30Z candle. OBV rolled over the past two sessions. Money Flow Index likely sub-50 and falling, indicating net outflows.
• Wyckoff: After an October Sign of Strength, the current phase resembles a distributional upthrust failure around 1.50, followed by a test back into the 1.30s. No clean spring has occurred; thus, continuation into support is the higher-probability path.

VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP: Intraday price repeatedly failed near VWAP around the mid 1.37–1.38 area. Closing near VWAP but below key mid-levels favors fade-the-bounce tactics.
• Anchored VWAP from Oct 27 gap day: Sits above current price, implying longs from the gap remain underwater on average; propensity to sell strength.

Fibonacci map

• From Oct 27 high 1.64 to Nov 4 low 1.25: 38.2% ≈ 1.39, 50% ≈ 1.45, 61.8% ≈ 1.50. Price failed 61.8% on Nov 10 and lost 50% on Nov 11, now hovering around 38.2%. A decisive intraday rejection of 1.39–1.41 typically opens a path to 1.33 then 1.30–1.31. Below 1.25, the -27% extension projects ≈1.12, but that is a tail-risk for this 24h window.

Ichimoku

• Price below conversion and baseline, cloud above in the 1.48–1.55 band. Lagging span below price and cloud, reinforcing a bearish short-term bias. Expect rallies into conversion line to stall first.

Pivot points (from Nov 10: H 1.72, L 1.45, C 1.48)

• P ≈ 1.55; S1 ≈ 1.38; S2 ≈ 1.28; R1 ≈ 1.65. Today closed below S1, suggesting a magnet toward S2 if bounces fail.

Candles and patterns

• Today printed a red body with long upper wick from 1.45 to 1.36 and a lower tail to 1.33. This is a classic rally-failure candle within a descending channel. The recent series of lower highs forms a bearish staircase; intraday 5m–15m charts show bear flags resolving lower.

Market microstructure and liquidity

• Liquidity heavy but skewed to sell pressure on upticks. Volume nodes: 1.34–1.36 and 1.44–1.46; the former is a battle zone, the latter a supply shelf. Thin pocket 1.30–1.33 can accelerate quickly on breaks.

Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Early bounce toward 1.37–1.41 stalls at VWAP/EMA cluster; sellers push it to 1.33 with a late-day probe into 1.30–1.31. Close near 1.32–1.35.
• Bear extension (25%): Quick failure under 1.34 leads to a momentum sweep to 1.28 S2, then a reflex bounce to 1.31–1.33 by the close.
• Bull rescue (20%): Strong reclaim and hold above 1.41–1.45 negates immediate downside, allowing a squeeze attempt into 1.50–1.52. This requires breadth and volume confirmation and is not the base expectation.

Risk management notes

• Invalidation for shorts: Sustained acceptance above 1.46 (session close basis) would signal a failed short thesis, risking a fast squeeze to 1.50–1.52.
• Take-profit preference: Scale-out into 1.33 and 1.30; consider leaving a runner for 1.28 if momentum improves.

Conclusion and trade plan

• Edge favors fading strength into 1.37–1.41 with a target back into the 1.30 handle. The technical confluence of failed 50–61.8% retracements, VWAP resistance, lower highs, and pivot positioning under S1 supports a short-biased plan for the next session.