ATNF: Pop-Into-Supply, Then Fade — Short the 12 Zone, Target the 9s

Summary and context

• Ticker: ATNF (180 Life Sciences Corp.)
• Currency: USD
• Current price reference: ~10.70
• Regime: Event-driven, extremely high volatility micro-cap biotech. Two-session parabolic expansion (8/12–8/13) with massive volume and wide intraday ranges, followed by intraday distribution and lower highs.

What happened the last two sessions

• 2025-08-12 (Day 1 of the move): O 5.98, H 12.74, L 4.88, C 10.24 on ~224.4M shares. Large-range breakout day with a strong close but sizable tail—classic “news spike.”
• 2025-08-13 (Day 2): Extreme gap/extension. Intraday H 19.24, L 9.72 with persistent lower highs through the day and a late wash to 9.72, then a weak bounce. Hourly volumes totaled ~85M.
• Intraday VWAP (8/13 only, hour-weighted approx.): ~14.05. Current price (~10.7) sits ~24% below today’s VWAP—indicative of distribution with trapped longs overhead.

Structure, levels, and confluence

• Key supports
  • 10.24: 8/12 close; first major reference support and a magnet.
  • 9.72: 8/13 session low; first downside target if weakness persists.
  • 7.72: extreme liquidity vacuum wick; panic/air-pocket zone if 9.72 breaks on volume.
• Key resistances
  • 11.95–12.20: 23.6% Fib retrace of 8/13 range (H 19.24 → L 9.72) sits near 11.97; also a notable hourly supply shelf where a large distribution candle closed (11.98). Expect sellers on pops here.
  • 13.35–13.40: 38.2% Fib; midpoint supply cluster.
  • 14.48–14.50: 50% Fib and near classical daily pivot P ≈ 13.22 plus mid-supply—heavy overhead.
  • 15.6–15.7: 61.8% Fib; aligns with the day’s mid-session failed bounce peak (~15.65).
  • 16.7: Classic R1 pivot from 8/13 (P ≈ 13.22, R1 ≈ 16.72). A squeeze level if shorts get trapped, but probability currently lower given distribution below VWAP.
• Classical pivots (based on 8/13: H 19.24, L 9.72, C ~10.70)
  • P ≈ 13.22; price below P is bearish bias.
  • S1 ≈ 7.20; R1 ≈ 16.72. Wide bands reflect extreme ATR.
• Fibonacci map (H 19.24 → L 9.72)
  • 23.6%: ~11.97 (first expected fade zone)
  • 38.2%: ~13.36 (secondary fade)
  • 50%: ~14.48 (major supply)
  • 61.8%: ~15.61 (cap on bounces yesterday)

Momentum and trend read

• Daily momentum: After a >+200% day, 14-period RSI is typically in the mid-80s to low-90s; the second day failed to sustain highs and closed near session lows intraday—a classic “exhaustion + distribution” signature.
• Hourly momentum: RSI peaked at extreme overbought on the morning spike, then trended into neutral/sub-50 by the close, consistent with a sequence of lower highs and continued supply on pops.
• MACD (hourly, qualitative): Bearish slope with signal crossover after midday; histogram contracting negative but not yet basing—momentum remains down/fragile.
• Moving averages (contextual): Price is multiples above longer-term MAs (massive extension) but currently trades below intraday short MAs/VWAPs—short-term downtrend within a hyper-extended longer-term regime.

Volatility and bands

• ATR expansion: Daily ATR exploded from sub-0.20 to multi-dollar range. The 2-day realized range spans ~4.88 → 19.24. Expect 20–40% intraday swings possible.
• Bollinger (hourly, qualitative): Band expansion during the morning spike followed by contraction and price riding the lower band into the close. Mean reversion pops toward the mid-band (~12 area) are likely to meet supply.

Volume analytics and VWAPs

• 8/13 intraday VWAP ≈ 14.05 with heavy early-hour prints at 14–17. That creates significant overhead supply as trapped participants seek exits on bounces.
• Two-day anchored context: 8/12’s enormous volume mostly transacted below 11; 8/13 was largely above 12 early and then liquidated. The blended, event-anchored VWAPs are likely hovering around 10.5–11.5. Current price near that zone suggests tug-of-war, but position below 8/13 VWAP still biases pops to be sold.

Tape and pattern diagnostics

• Pattern: Blow-off top + gap-and-fade day two, with long upper wicks and lower highs—classic second-day fail pattern.
• Microstructure: Repeated volatility halts possible; liquidity vacuums showed (7.72 wick). Round-number psychology at 10 and 12 is strong; first bounce sellers likely cluster 11.9–12.2.

Scenario map for the next 24 hours

• Base case (≈60%): Range trade 9.2–12.5. Early bounce toward 11.9–12.2 fades; retest of 10.2–9.7 support. Close in the 9.8–10.6 zone.
• Bull squeeze (≈25%): Strong reclaim of 12 leads to a squeeze toward 13.3–14.5 (Fib 38.2–50%), then likely fades unless sustained accumulation pushes above 15.6.
• Bear extension (≈15%): Failed bounces under 11 → breakdown through 9.7; stops accelerate toward 8.3–7.9 with halts possible; reflexive bounce later.

Risk management notes (important for execution)

• Shorting micro-cap squeezers carries gap/halt risk. Use hard stops and sized risk (0.5–1.0R). Consider using bracket/OTO orders given halts.
• Ideal risk framework for the setup below: Entry ~11.95, stop ~12.90 (above supply shelf), target 9.50 (just above 9.72 low) gives roughly 1:1.6–1.8 depending on fill; extension target 8.80 offers >2.5R if momentum accelerates.

Trade thesis and plan (next 24h)

• Thesis: The stock is in short-term distribution below today’s VWAP (~14.05), with overhead supply concentrated at 11.9–15.6. Price is failing at successive Fib retraces and making lower highs. Expect mean-reversion pops to be sold, with a retest of 10.24/9.72 likely in the next session.
• Setup: “Pop-and-fade” into first resistance.
  • Entry: 11.95 (sell/short on bounce into the 23.6% Fib/supply shelf).
  • Protective stop (not in fields, but critical): 12.90–13.05 (above intraday micro-structure and to avoid stop hunts under 12.8–12.9).
  • Primary take-profit: 9.50 (above 9.72 low to avoid front-running).
  • Secondary/runner (optional): 8.80 if momentum accelerates through 9.7.

Bottom line

• Bias: Bearish for the next 24 hours. Favor selling pops into 11.9–12.2 with targets back to 9.5–10.
• Why: Below day’s VWAP, heavy overhead supply, lower-highs sequence, fib/supply alignment at ~12, and psychological gravity toward 10/9.7.