Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) – Short-Term Price Action

1. Trend Analysis (Daily Time Frame)

Examining the daily closing prices from March through July 1, 2025, we observe a broad downtrend:

• The March highs above $7.50 reversed sharply by early April to lows below $5.70, reflecting significant bearish momentum.
• After a rebound in April and May, a secondary leg down formed. Since late May, the trend is persistently negative: lower highs ($6.24, $5.57, $5.42, $5.24) and lower lows ($5.46, $5.32, $5.22, $5.12).

Moving Averages:

• The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) has rolled over in late May and remains above price, acting as dynamic resistance. Estimated SMA(20) ≈ $5.56, well above the current price, confirming bearish control.
• The 50-day SMA has also turned negative and sits above the 20-day, confirming the medium-term downtrend.

2. Volume Analysis

• June 27 shows a massive volume spike – 162M+ shares versus the average 20-40M. This likely represents a capitulation washout or major institutional activity.
• Despite the high volume, price failed to establish a true reversal (June 27 close: $5.17, June 30 close: $5.24). This weighed price down, hinting supply still overwhelms demand.
• More recent sessions (July 1) show low, consolidating volume – typical in late-stage bear swings, but lacking real accumulation.

3. Intraday (Hourly) Insights

• Short-term hourly data from June 30–July 1 reveals consolidation between $5.09–$5.27, with volatility compressing especially post-9:00am July 1.
• No clear V-bottom formation. Rather, a series of minor bounces and quick fades. Support marginally holds around $5.12–$5.13, but repeated tests make it vulnerable.
• Sellers consistently cap upside attempts at $5.19–$5.22.

4. Price Patterns & Chart Structures

• Descending Channel: From May to July, price action is contained in a broad descending channel (highs consistently declining, failed attempts to break channel top).
• Lower Highs / Lower Lows: Recent pivots – $5.42 (June 23), $5.45 (June 24), $5.23 (June 30), $5.14 (July 1) – offer classic confirmation of trend exhaustion and progressive price deterioration.
• Failed Bounce Setups: All recent rally attempts have been quickly sold into, suggesting little conviction on the long side.

5. Momentum and Oscillators

• RSI (14): Estimated in the 37–41 range (mildly oversold, but not extreme), indicating negative momentum with room for further downside.
• MACD: Both lines trending well below zero since mid-May, with only weak, failed bullish crossovers, confirming persistent downward momentum; histogram red.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Likely rebounding off deep oversold but yet to cross above 30 decisively, no buy signal evident.

6. Support & Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Resistance: $5.19–$5.22 (recent hourly highs), then $5.27 and former lows $5.33–$5.42.
• Immediate Support: $5.12 (intraday), critical at $5.09–$5.10. A break below this zone exposes psychological and historical support at $5.00 and then $4.85.

7. Supply/Demand Imbalance

• Volume at Price analysis shows heavy volume and failed recovery attempts near $5.15–$5.20, indicating large sellers saturating supply.
• Lack of large bullish candles on heavier-than-normal volume supports sell pressure.

8. Volatility Assessment

• ATR (Average True Range) has compressed from May's >$0.70 swings to $0.17–$0.23, a sign of lethargic price action but often a precursor to a new expansion leg, likely in the direction of the prevailing trend (down).

9. Market Sentiment and Trade Positioning

• No sign of positive divergence or accumulation. The post-volume capitulation bounce is weak. Bearish sentiment dominates with no significant reversal signals.

10. Statistical Bias & Probability Weighting

• 80% probability of a downside break with a $5.00 target over the next 24 hours. Minor probability for a relief bounce, but resistance is strong and supply dominant.

Final Conclusion and Prediction

• The overall technical environment is decisively bearish with little evidence of sustained buying or accumulation. Every bounce is met with immediate supply, and support around $5.12 looks increasingly weak.
• Given the well-established downtrend, failed recoveries, and compressing volatility (potential for breakdown expansion), a short position is favored.
• Strategy: Sell into minor upticks for optimal entry; target the next major psychological support at $5.00 or just below.

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Summary Table

Indicator/Method	Signal	Implication
Trend/SMA	Bearish	Favor shorts
Volume	No accumulation	Supply>Demand
Oscillators	Negative	No reversal
Support/Resistance	Weak/Heavy	Easy path lower
Pattern/Channel	Descending	Short the bounces
Sentiment	Bearish	Sell bias
Volatility (ATR)	Tight, may expand	Downside breakout risk

Action: SELL (Short) at $5.14–$5.16 (on slight uptick/failed rally). Target $5.00-$4.98 for profit-taking.

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Prediction: AUR likely breaks down to test $5.00 within the next 24 hours unless unexpected news or extraordinary buying appears. Probability of further downside exceeds odds of reversal at this juncture.