AVTR: Oversold Base at $11.20–$11.30 Sets Up a Tactical Bounce Toward $11.70

Overview

• Instrument: Avantor, Inc. (AVTR)
• Timestamp context: Last trade ~11.38 on 2025-11-14. Next 24 hours includes next trading session. Currency: USD.
• Regime: Post-earnings gap-down, consolidating in a tight bearish range with attempts to base above the 11.05–11.20 floor.

1. Multi-timeframe Price Action (Daily to Intraday)

• Daily structure since 2025-10-29: Massive gap from ~15 zone to 12s, closing 11.58 on extreme volume. Subsequent candles show compression 11.05–11.70 with lower highs and equal/lower lows—distribution transitioned to range-building.
• Recent daily closes: Mostly 11.32–11.70 for ~2 weeks; today closed 11.38 after dipping to 11.18 and recovering—a small-bodied red candle with a lower shadow near prior support, signaling demand around 11.20–11.30.
• Intraday (11/14):
  • Open ~11.57, early sell to 11.31, mid-day drift to 11.18 low, then a steady bid to 11.38 into the close.
  • Notable uptick in volume 20:30–21:00 while price stabilized at 11.38—buying support into the close.
  • Day VWAP estimated ~11.33–11.36; late close slightly above/near VWAP implies balanced session with mild dip-buyer presence.

2. Trend and Moving Averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 12.84 (rolling, after including 11/14); price is well below, indicating short-term downtrend but mean-reversion tension upward toward the average exists.
• 50D SMA (estimate) ~13.2–13.6, still above price; medium-term trend remains bearish.
• Slope: 20D rolling downward but flattening post-gap as closes cluster in 11.3–11.7.
• Implication: Tactical bounces possible toward 11.6–12.0; larger trend still capped by 12.8–13.3.

3. Momentum/Oscillators

• RSI(14): Approx 20–25 (oversold) due to the large 10/29 drop still inside the lookback. Lately, downside momentum has decelerated; RSI attempting to base above extreme lows, a classic condition for short-term mean reversion.
• Stochastic (14,3,3): Likely oscillating 20–40 region; today’s lower wick supports a potential %K curl-up from oversold.
• MACD(12,26,9): Deeply negative after gap; histogram has been contracting as price goes sideways. Signal-line convergence hints at a possible bullish cross in coming sessions if price nudges to 11.6–11.7.
• CCI(20): Likely between -100 and -150, consistent with short-term oversold but improving.
• Takeaway: Momentum is bearish but waning; conditions favor a short-term bounce if support holds.

4. Volatility and Bands

• ATR(14) daily estimate: ~0.55–0.75, inflated by the gap day but cooling. Expect ±0.40–0.60 typical next session range absent catalysts.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Midband ≈ 12.84; lower band estimated ~10.7–11.0 given current dispersion; price is hugging the lower band and mean-reversion toward 11.6–12.0 is probable.
• Keltner Channels: Price near/below lower KC supports a counter-trend bounce framework.

5. Volume/Flow Indicators

• Post-gap volume decayed from >30M to ~6–9M/day typical; today ~7.2M. Sideways on lighter volume = supply absorption near 11s.
• OBV (qualitative): Stabilized after sharp drop; not yet trending up but not making new lows—neutral to slightly constructive for a bounce.
• MFI (est.): Mid-30s to low-40s; no clear distribution pressure intraday.

6. Support/Resistance Map

• Immediate support: 11.18–11.30 (today’s intraday low cluster and repeated intraday rejections), then 11.05 (10/30 low) and 10.82 (10/31 intraday low zone). This 10.82–11.05 area is the critical higher-timeframe floor.
• Near resistance: 11.60–11.70 (multiple daily highs/close cluster), then 12.00–12.10 (psychological and prior pivot), 12.40–12.60 (gap window underside), 12.80–13.00 (Fib/20D SMA confluence/overhead supply).
• Supply overhang: Large unfilled earnings gap from ~12.42 up to ~15+; sellers likely active on rallies into 12s.

7. Pattern Diagnostics

• Post-shock base: Range 11.05–11.70 is forming a horizontal base with small positive skew (higher low today vs 11.05) if 11.18–11.20 continues to hold.
• Candle today: Lower shadow after a red body suggests demand emergence near 11.2; not a classic hammer (since close < open), but constructive for a bounce if follow-through appears early next session.
• Intraday micro-structure: Higher lows in the last hours into the close and reclaim of intraday VWAP is short-term bullish.

8. Fibonacci Levels

• Swing high (10/21) 15.60 → swing low (10/30) 11.05; range = 4.55.
  • 38.2% = 12.79; 50% = 13.33; 61.8% = 13.86. Price remains below 38.2%—bigger picture still bearish; rallies into 12.8–13.0 likely fade initially.
• Short-term swing (11.05 low → 11.70 high): 0.65 range. 61.8% pullback ≈ 11.30; today’s low near 11.18–11.30 aligns—a confluence buy zone.

9. Ichimoku (Daily – qualitative)

• Price below cloud; Span A/B overhead; Tenkan < Kijun; lagging span below price—systematically bearish. However, distance from Kijun (likely mid-12s) suggests elastic mean reversion.

10. Anchored VWAP

• AVWAP anchored to 10/29 gap-down open (~12.42) likely resides ~11.6–11.8 after weeks of churn. Today’s close below that anchored VWAP keeps bears in control on a swing basis; reclaiming ~11.70 would begin to tilt control short-term.

11. Linear Regression/Channel and Z-Score

• 20-session regression line slopes down; current price ≈ 1 to 1.5 standard deviations below mean, supporting a bounce toward the line (11.6–11.8) in the next session if selling pressure remains muted.

12. Scenario Analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base/bounce (55%): Hold 11.18–11.30, push into 11.55–11.70 where initial supply reappears. Requires early reclaim of 11.45–11.50.
• Chop (25%): Range 11.20–11.50 with indecisive tape, awaiting catalyst.
• Breakdown (20%): Lose 11.18 → test 11.05; if 11.05 fails, quick air-pocket to 10.85–10.90 before responsive buyers step in. Odds lower absent fresh negative news.

13. Strategy Synthesis

• Bullish arguments: Oversold oscillators; price at/near lower Bollinger/Keltner; intraday demand tail at 11.18; confluence Fib 61.8% of short-term swing at ~11.30; VWAP reclaim late-day; ATR contraction.
• Bearish arguments: Price under 20/50D MAs and anchored VWAP; large overhead gap supply; unsuccessful attempts to hold above 11.70.
• Expected path: A tactical mean-reversion bounce toward 11.60–11.70 is favored if 11.18–11.30 holds early. Risk limited below 11.05.

14. Trade Plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip near the 11.25–11.32 confluence; alternative momentum entry above 11.45 with target 11.68.
• Target: 11.65–11.70 (first resistance cluster and near prior multi-day cap); beyond that, stretch 11.85–12.00 if momentum/volume expand.
• Risk control (for context): Stop below 11.08 (below 11.05 pivot) to avoid breakdown risk into 10.8s. R:R ~1:2 targeting 11.68 from 11.28.

15. Probability-weighted Expectation

• Central expectation: 11.24–11.30 buy fills → intraday drift to 11.55–11.70. Implied move magnitude consistent with ATR and intraday realized volatility.

Conclusion

• Decision: Buy (Long). Tactical mean reversion from support with manageable downside to 11.05 and realistic near-term resistance at 11.70. Execute with a patient limit near 11.28; take profits around 11.68 within 24 hours unless momentum warrants trailing.