Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Avantor, Inc. (AVTR)

1. Long-Term Trend Analysis

• Daily Structure: The stock has experienced a dramatic downtrend since late January 2025, moving from highs above $22 to recent lows near $12. There was a particularly sharp decline in late April due to a significant volume spike, indicating a major breakdown (April 25th, 43 million shares traded, closing at $12.93).
• Volume Analysis: The sharp volume spike on breakdown days signals institutional activity and possible forced selling. The aftermath shows persistent weakness but with some attempts at stabilization.

2. Support and Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance:
  • $15.00–$15.50: Prior area of consolidation and subsequent breakdown (April 10–April 24).
  • $13.50–$13.60: Minor resistance from failed bounces on May 16, 19, 20.
• Major Support:
  • $12.00–$12.20: Multiple recent rebounds and high volume probes (May 6–8, intraday lows).
  • $11.80: Absolute low post-breakdown.

3. Recent Candlestick Pattern and Behavior

• After a strong downtrend, the price has formed a broad bearish flag/descending channel over the past three weeks: lower highs, but some stability above $12.50.
• The last three trading sessions (May 21–23) show declining intraday ranges, reduced volume, and inability to reclaim $13.00. This often signals a consolidation before another move, typically continuation in direction of preceding trend.

4. Moving Averages

• 50-day and 200-day MAs: With the sharp drop, even a 50-day average would be well above the current price. A rough calculation (using data since late March) puts the 50-day MA near $15, 200-day even higher. The price is well below all major averages—a classic bear market structure.

5. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Manual Estimate: Given the sharp, protracted downtrend and only minor reactive bounces, the RSI (14) likely sits in the 30–38 zone. There's no sign of sustained oversold reversal.

6. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Observation: MACD line remains negative, and recent failed bounces have not brought a bullish crossover. The MACD histogram is likely flattening but not reversing—signal of bear trend continuation.

7. Volume Profile

• Since the breakdown in late April, volume has been progressively decreasing on attempted bounces. Major rallies (May 8, May 12–13) quickly faded. Today's session (May 23) shows lower than average volume as price struggles near intraday lows—buyers showing little urgency.

8. Intraday Analysis (May 23rd):

• Price has traded mostly between $12.47–$12.83 intraday.
• Afternoon session shows a failure to sustain any bounce above $12.65.
• Last traded price is $12.649999, near session low.

9. Chart Patterns

• Bear flag/descending channel persists; failed bounce attempts at $13.40–$13.50.
• Repeated inability to hold gains on volume spikes confirms weak bullish conviction.

10. Wyckoff Phases & Distribution

• Late Stage Distribution: After a marked markdown phase in late April, there's evidence of weak and listless price action, typical before another leg down (Phase E in Wyckoff's method).

11. Order Flow & Tape Reading

• No aggressive buyer presence at $12.50–$12.65; sellers seem in control. On microstructure, most upticks are quickly sold off.

12. Options/Volatility Implication

• Although direct options data is unavailable, the sharply declining range and volume suggest implied volatility is compressing, which can precede a sharp move once the current flag is breached.

13. Sentiment & Overhang Factors

• With a 40%+ wipeout since January and persistent new lows, traders are likely hesitant to accumulate. Momentum/trend-following funds would be pressing shorts or awaiting further downside.

14. Probabilistic Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

• With no technical reversal signs and the bearish structure intact, a break below $12.50 is probable. Should this occur, the $12.20 and then $11.80 levels become immediate targets. Upside risk is capped at $12.90–$13.00 as sellers defend breakdown pivots.

Conclusion/Recommendation

• Bias: Strongly bearish for the next 24 hours.
• Strategy: Enter a short (Sell) position near the current price ($12.65), with optimal execution around $12.64 (to avoid the spread).
• Target: Cover at $12.15 (near prior support and psychological round number). More aggressive traders can target $11.85.
• Stop: A hard stop above $12.95 would contain risk, but current order is focused on maximizing reward within the developing bearish flag.

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Summary: Avantor, Inc. remains in a heavy downtrend with technicals and market structure suggesting further downside. No strong reversal signals are present; volume and order flow point to continuation lower. A short from $12.64, targeting $12.15, offers favorable risk/reward for the coming session.