BAX coiling for a push toward 25.3 — short-term bulls in control after a high-volume regime shift

BAX | Multi-timeframe technical playbook and 24-hour outlook

1. Market structure and context

• Regime shift: On 2025-07-31, BAX experienced a high-volume gap-down (47M shares) from the upper-20s to the low-21s, resetting the trend and creating a new trading regime with heavy overhead supply. Since then, price carved a base between roughly 21.3 and 24.5, with an emerging series of higher lows from 8/1 onward.
• Current placement: 8/14 close at 24.45 (with an after-hours print at 24.65) is above the 8/13 high (24.39) and near the top of the three-week consolidation range. Intraday high today reached 24.76, indicating buyers pushed into a local resistance pocket before a minor late pullback.
• Timeframes used: Daily for primary trend and momentum; 60-minute for short-term path and timing; some intraday prints to gauge closing drive and liquidity.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Immediate resistance: 24.76 (today’s intraday high); 25.00 (psychological round); 25.31 (38.2% retrace of the 31.75→21.33 downswing); 25.60–25.90 (minor supply shelf); 26.54 (50% retrace); 27.77 (61.8% retrace).
• Immediate support: 24.28–24.33 (today’s intraday pivot and VWAP vicinity during the NY session); 24.10–24.15 (8/13 close and today’s early consolidation floor); 23.98 (today’s open); 23.70 (intraday pullback shelf from midday range); 23.28–23.46 (volume node from 8/8–8/12 cluster); 22.84; 22.44; 21.96; 21.33 (post-gap swing low).
• Volume/liquidity context: Dense volume nodes built around 23.2–23.8; a thinner “shelf” appears 24.3–24.8, where price tends to move faster, followed by thicker supply into 25.3+ from prior ownership pre-gap.

3. Trend, momentum, and mean reversion

• Daily trend: Primary trend remains down relative to the 50/200 SMAs (still far above price and declining), but the short-term trend post-8/1 is up (higher lows/highs). Think “bearish-turned-range with a short-term bullish swing inside it.”
• Moving averages (estimates based on recent closes):
  • 5-EMA and 10-EMA: Rising, likely clustered ~24.0 and ~23.7–23.9, respectively; price above both → bullish short-term bias.
  • 20-SMA: Still declining and likely above current price (~mid-25s), implying the medium-term downtrend is not yet fully repaired.
  • 50-SMA/200-SMA: Well above price (~30s), confirming overhead supply remains for swing horizons.
• Mean reversion: After a two-session push (23.98 → 24.45 close), price is leaning to the upper side of its short-term range. Expect shallow give-back to rising intraday averages (24.2–24.3) before another attempt higher if buyers maintain control.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (Daily): Recovered from post-gap oversold, now likely mid-to-high 50s. This reflects constructive momentum without being overbought; room remains to advance toward ~60–65 if resistance breaks.
• RSI (60-minute): Likely in the 60–65 zone after today’s steady grind; a small dip to reset toward ~50–55 on a pullback would be healthy prior to a new push.
• Stochastics (1H): Near upper band; a minor consolidation/pullback would relieve pressure and set up a cleaner continuation.
• MACD (Daily): Histogram improving, signal lines curling up; momentum basing and turning positive in the short-term, consistent with a recovery swing. On 1H, MACD crossed up days ago and remains supportive, albeit extended intraday.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Price is riding toward the upper band; bands are beginning to re-expand from a post-gap contraction. Early-stage “band walk” potential if buyers press through 24.76–25.00; near-term dips likely meet demand near 24.2–24.3 where mid-band on shorter frames aligns with intraday VWAP zones.
• Keltner Channels (1H): Price hugging upper channel for much of the session, indicative of trend behavior. Pullbacks to middle channel often attract buyers in trend phases.

6. Ichimoku (trend + structure snapshot)

• Daily: Price remains below the cloud (longer-term bearish context), but Tenkan is crossing or above Kijun with lagging span starting to free itself from the deepest post-gap prints. This is early repair, not a full trend change.
• 1H: Price is above cloud; cloud angle is modestly positive; pullbacks toward the conversion/base line cluster (~24.2–24.3) are tactical buy zones barring a sharp risk-off shock.

7. Volume analytics

• Post-gap volume has normalized, with 8/14 finishing below 8/13’s volume but showing notable accumulation during the final two hours (rising participation into the close). The closing drive and after-hours uptick to 24.65 suggest follow-through interest.
• OBV (qualitative read): Stabilized and has been tilting higher since 8/1, consistent with accumulation on up days.

8. Anchored VWAPs and positioning

• AVWAP from the gap day (7/31): With that day’s massive turnover, many participants are anchored there; price trading above an AVWAP anchored to 7/31 (likely mid-23s) indicates bulls have regained near-term control over the post-gap supply.
• AVWAP from the 8/1 swing low: Likely below current price; as long as price holds above this rising VWAP, the structure supports buy-the-dip behavior.

9. Fibonacci mapping (swing 31.75 high on 6/10 to 21.33 low on 8/1)

• 38.2%: ~25.31 (first meaningful retracement and a magnet once 25 is cleared).
• 50%: ~26.54 (deeper recovery target if strength persists beyond 24 hours).
• 61.8%: ~27.77 (unlikely in 24 hours, but key medium-term resistance if a multi-week repair continues).

10. Candlestick and price action reads

• 7/31: Wide-range gap-down candle set the regime.
• 8/1–8/7: Stabilization and early basing.
• 8/12–8/14: Three-session constructive advance with 8/14 closing above 8/13’s high—bullish short-term continuation signal.
• 8/14 intraday: Steady upward bias with higher lows; late-session probe to 24.76 followed by controlled pullback and a close near the upper quartile of the day’s range—healthy consolidation after expansion.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Short-term ascending channel (1H) off 8/1 low: Price near upper boundary; a minor pullback toward channel midline (24.2–24.3) is the highest-probability springboard for continuation.
• Breakout pivot: 24.39–24.45 zone (prior day high and today’s close). Reclaiming and holding above this band preserves breakout integrity.

12. Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Early dip toward 24.20–24.35; buyers defend rising intraday averages; subsequent push through 24.76 unlocks 24.95–25.10, with an extension to 25.30 (38.2% retrace) if momentum persists.
• Bearish fade (25%): Failure to hold 24.10–24.20 leads to a test of 23.98 and possibly 23.70; structure remains intact above 23.70, but timing of a breakout delays.
• Bull breakout (20%): Strong open or gap above 24.80–24.90 triggers a fast move through the 24.3–24.8 low-volume shelf, tagging 25.30 swiftly; stretch targets 25.50–25.60 if volume expands and tape stays one-way.

13. Risk considerations

• Overhead supply still substantial from pre-gap holders; rallies into 25–26 can meet profit-taking.
• Short-term momentum is extended on intraday oscillators; a shakeout to refresh momentum is normal.
• Broader market beta: If indices risk-off overnight/next open, the 24.10–23.98 shelves are vulnerable.

14. Synthesis and trading plan

• Bias: Bullish for the next 24 hours within a short-term uptrend, targeting the 25.00–25.30 zone.
• Tactics: Favor buy-the-dip at rising supports rather than chasing into 24.7x unless momentum/volume confirm a clean breakout.
• Optimal entry: 24.30 limit aligns with intraday support/VWAP region and 1H Ichimoku/Tenkan-Kijun vicinity.
• Profit objective: 25.30 (first major Fibonacci retracement, logical spot for responsive sellers and partial profit-taking).
• Optional risk guide (not required but prudent): A protective line in the sand near 23.70 keeps the short-term higher-low structure intact; that implies a favorable reward-to-risk (~1:1.7+) from 24.30 to 25.30 vs. 23.70.

Bottom line: The path of least resistance over the next 24 hours is a shallow pullback into 24.2–24.3 followed by a push to 25.0–25.3. A decisive break/hold above 24.76 accelerates this scenario; conversely, losing 24.10 would defer it and invite a test of 23.98–23.70 support first.