BigBear.ai, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

BBAI: Inside-Day Coil After Capitulation—Setting Up a Tactical Bounce Toward 6.18

Instrument: BigBear.ai (BBAI) | Currency: $ | Current price: 5.81 Timeframe focus: Next 24 hours

Executive view

Bias: Short-term bounce within a broader downtrend
Thesis: After a massive breakaway gap down on 8/12, price printed a strong green recovery candle and then an inside consolidation day (8/13). Momentum is oversold on RSI(14) and price is hugging the lower Bollinger band while sitting near the 38.2%-to-50% Fibonacci retracement zone of the 8/11 close-to-8/12 low move. Expect a probe toward 6.00–6.20 if 6.03 (R1/inside-day high) is reclaimed. Immediate support rests near 5.64–5.70.
24h expectation: Range 5.60–6.10 with an upward skew; breakout extension risk to ~6.20 if momentum accelerates above 6.03.

Higher timeframe trend (June→July): Uptrend into early July highs (7.8–8.6) followed by distribution.
Recent trend (late July→now): Persistent lower highs/lows; 7/31–8/11 drift down to ~6.6–7.1, then a breakaway gap on 8/12 to 4.75–6.08 range; rebound closed at 5.97.
Current posture: Price is well below the 10/20/30-day SMAs (bearish), but exhibiting a reflexive mean-reversion bounce after an exhaustion gap.
Inside day on 8/13: High 6.03 < prior day 6.08; low 5.60 > prior day 4.75; a classic pause. Break of 6.03 favors upside continuation; break of 5.60 risks retest toward 5.40/5.00.

SMA5 ≈ 6.52; SMA10 ≈ 6.62; SMA20 ≈ 7.02; 30-day ≈ 7.08. Price (5.81) trades 12–17% below short/mid MAs (bearish trend). Mean reversion potential exists but overhead supply is heavy near 6.4–7.0.
Implication: Downtrend intact; short-term bounces likely to stall at moving-average clusters (6.2–6.6).

RSI(14) ≈ 28 (oversold). This reflects sharp losses culminating in 8/12’s gap down; supports a near-term bounce.
Stochastic (14) rising from near 0 to ~40 using 14-day high 7.39 and low 4.75; a constructive turn after capitulation.
MACD (qualitative): Negative and below signal, but histogram likely contracting after 8/12 rebound—early sign of downside momentum loss.

Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 7.02; price is pressing the lower band—typical for snapback rallies after high-volatility dumps.
ATR(14) (est.): ~0.70–0.90. Implies a 24h move of roughly ±0.7. A 5.6–6.5 day is feasible in a momentum scenario.

8/12 volume: ~238.5M (climactic). Close green after a deep gap-down suggests responsive buyers absorbed supply.
8/13 volume: ~85.8M—still elevated, consistent with consolidation/price discovery after a shock.
OBV (qualitative): Tick-up on 8/12 with a minor dip on 8/13—net supportive of a short-term bounce.

Key supports: 5.64–5.70 (intraday shelf, 38.2% retrace), 5.60 (S1/pivot math), 5.40 (S2 vicinity), 4.85–4.75 (gap day open/low; major line in the sand).
Key resistances: 5.92–6.03 (50% retrace + pivot R1 + inside-day high), 6.20 (61.8% retrace), 6.35–6.40 (late-July base), 6.61–6.72 (prior swing cluster / MA resistance).
Classic pivot levels for 8/14 session (derived from 8/13 H=6.03, L=5.60, C=5.81):
- Pivot P ≈ 5.813; R1 ≈ 6.026; S1 ≈ 5.596; R2 ≈ 6.243; S2 ≈ 5.383.
VWAP/POC (8/13 intraday, est.): ~5.72–5.75; price oscillated around this, creating a value node. A dip buy near 5.70–5.75 has tactical merit.

Using 8/11 close (7.09) to 8/12 low (4.75):
- 38.2% = ~5.64 (tested 8/13 and held intraday)
- 50% = ~5.92 (near R1/inside-day top)
- 61.8% = ~6.20 (next upside magnet if 6.03 breaks)
This confluence strengthens the 5.64–5.70 support and 5.92–6.20 resistance band.

Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud overhead ~6.5–7.5. Bearish layout but room for a mean-reversion tag toward Kijun (~6.2–6.4 est.) if momentum improves.

8/12: Large bullish wide-range recovery candle after a capitulation gap—potential bullish reversal day.
8/13: Inside day/harami. Typically a continuation pattern in the direction of the preceding impulse (here: bounce). Confirmation requires a break above 6.03 with expanding volume.

Sharp A down into 8/12, V-type B bounce into the close, 8/13 as B-wave consolidation. A C-up toward 6.18–6.24 is plausible before the larger downtrend reasserts.

Short-term linear regression slope still negative; however, z-score vs 20-day mean is stretched (> -1.5σ). Historically conducive to 1–3 session snapbacks in high-beta names.

Base case (60%): Chop above 5.64 with push to 5.95–6.05; settle 5.90–6.00.
Bull case (30%): Break and hold above 6.03 with extension to 6.18–6.24 (R2/61.8% fib). Squeeze risk into 6.35 if volume re-accelerates, but lower probability in 24h.
Bear case (10%): Lose 5.60 leading to 5.40–5.45 test; tail risk toward 5.00 if sentiment deteriorates.

Entry: Prefer a limit buy pullback into 5.70–5.74 (near VWAP/POC and above S1 cluster). If price gaps above 5.90 and flags, alternative momentum entry is a break/hold over 6.03 with tight risk.
Targeting: First scale 5.98–6.05 (R1/50% fib). Secondary target 6.18–6.24 (61.8% fib/R2). For one-number output, we set 6.18 as the profit-taking price.
Invalidation/stop (tactical): Below 5.55 (beneath S1/38.2% cluster and intraday shelf). Risk ≈ 0.15–0.20 vs reward ≈ 0.33–0.46 (R:R ~1.7–2.3 depending on fill/exit).

Despite a dominant short/mid-term downtrend (price well below MAs), the combination of: oversold RSI(14) ~28, inside-day consolidation after a climactic washout, strong fib/pivot confluences, and intraday value support near 5.70 argues for a tactical long with a 24h objective into 6.00–6.20. The plan depends on 5.60–5.70 holding. A failure there invalidates the bounce and reopens 5.40/5.00.

Bottom line for the next 24 hours

Expect range-bound trading with an upward skew. A measured push toward 5.95–6.05 is likely; 6.18 is achievable if 6.03 breaks with volume.