Exhaustive Technical Analysis – Brown Forman Inc (BF-B) for June 12, 2025

1. Chart Structure and Price Action

BF-B is currently trading at $27.29, after an extraordinarily steep decline from the $34–$36 range to a low near $26.75 over the past week. We can immediately observe a massive gap-down on June 5th, where price dropped from $33.20 to a low of $27.03 on extremely high volume. This was followed by a string of volatile, wide-range bars with heightened volume. The recovery attempts were immediately sold into, and price consolidated near the $27–28 level for the last several days, bouncing off a new base low ($26.75 on June 12 intraday).

2. Volume Analysis

• The volume spike on June 5 (21.2M shares) dwarfs typical volume (2–3M shares), signaling capitulation or institutional exit.
• The subsequent sessions sustained elevated volume, confirming high investor activity and possible distribution.
• While recent sessions see decreasing volume, suggesting a potential exhaustion of selling, the rebound has been weak, with minimal or failed attempts to reclaim lost support levels.

3. Trend Analysis

• Short-term: Strongly bearish. The sharp drop has created a new downtrend with successive lower lows and lower highs from $36 to $27.
• Medium-term: After the capitulation gap down, the trend remains negative as bears control momentum with aggressive supply on rallies.
• Long-term: The break of $33 support invalidates prior support zones, putting the larger weekly uptrend at risk. Price is now trading at fresh multi-month lows.

4. Support/Resistance Levels and Gaps

• Support:
  • $26.75 (intraday low, June 12)
  • $26.70–27.00 (multiple touches, short-term base)
• Resistance:
  • $28.10–28.20 (recent swing highs)
  • $28.60 (gap window)
  • $29.00, then $33.00 (gap fill)
• Gap:
  • A massive gap remains unfilled between $33.20–$27.00, introducing strong technical overhead resistance, likely attracting sellers on any rally into $28–$29.

5. Candlestick Patterns

• Multiple long lower wicks (June 5, 6, 9, 10, 12) hint at buyers attempting to support the price sub-$27, but responses have been weak; no bullish reversal (e.g., engulfing, hammer with confirmation) is present.
• Recent candles suggest indecision – small-bodied candles, but intraday data shows rallies unable to breach $27.40 with conviction.

6. Moving Averages

• SMA 20 and 50: Price is far below standard moving averages. Even the closest (e.g., 20-SMA near $33) is well above, suggesting oversold conditions but not yet any mean reversion.
• The short-term moving averages (5, 10) will have sloped steeply negative, reinforcing the trend.
• No sign of a crossover to signal a bottoming pattern.

7. RSI/Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (14): With such a sharp drop and failed recovery, RSI is almost certainly sub-30 (oversold). This usually implies a risk of mean reversion. However, sustained oversold readings during downtrends signal momentum, and so far there is no reversal divergence.
• MACD: Negative and diverging; no bullish crossover.
• Stochastics: Likely at/near extreme, but catching falling knives without reversal confirmation is typically ill-advised.

8. Fibonacci Retracement

• Retracing from $36.09 high to $26.75 low:
  • 23.6%: $29.01
  • 38.2%: $30.30
  • 50%: $31.42
• A dead-cat bounce could target $29–$30, but no evidence of reversal yet. Multiple rejections around $28.10–$28.40 reinforce resistance below the 23.6% retrace.

9. Intraday (H) Data Analysis

• Intraday, price repeatedly failed to break above $27.40 in the last several hours.
• There are no sudden upside spikes or accumulation patterns; volumes on green candles are lower than red, suggesting sellers still dominate at every rally attempt.
• The $27.20–$27.40 region has become a local liquidity zone – any breakdown below $27 is likely to trigger stops.

10. Mean Reversion & Oversold Scan

• While oversold conditions are present, the chart shows no mean reversion yet – the stock is attempting to stabilize, but remains in a distribution phase.
• Given the absence of a reversal signal and continued rejection of minor rallies, further downside is probable before an exhaustion bottom is put in.

11. Statistical Volatility (ATR/Bollinger Bands)

• ATR: Has spiked – recent daily ranges are 2–3x historical, increasing risk.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is hugging/living near the lower band; walking the band is a classic sign of a strong trend – in this case, down.

12. Market Sentiment & Liquidity

• The extent and persistence of the selloff, especially around an earnings report or company-specific news, suggest negative sentiment is dominant.
• High volume and tight trading ranges around $27 show that liquidity providers are holding price up only for distribution, not accumulation.

13. Patterns and Risk/Reward

• No reversal pattern is visible; base-building is incomplete.
• A descending triangle or a bear flag may be forming, potentially presaging another leg down.
• The risk/reward remains negative for longs at this stage; short entries near local resistance offer favorable risk with tight stops above $27.40–28.10.

14. Trading Plan & Final Synthesis:

• Despite highly oversold readings, there is NO confirmation of a durable low or mean reversion.
• All evidence: price structure, volume, momentum, and failure at resistance, point to further weakness.
• Trend-following and breakdown strategies point to a short as optimal. The trade would be to sell/short near $27.30–27.40 (current failed rally zone), with a target near/below $26.50 for the next 24 hours, and limit risk with a stop above $28.10 (recent swing high resistance).

---

CONCLUSION: SELL (SHORT POSITION)

• The dominant trend remains strongly down; rallies are being sold aggressively.
• No evidence of reversal; repeated failures at $27.40–28.10.
• Sell/short now at $27.29–$27.40 is supported, targeting a test/retest and possible breach of the $26.75 low, with $26.50 as target.
• Risk can be controlled by stops above $28.10.

Price Prediction (Next 24 hours): Lower – retest/breach of $26.75, potentially towards $26.50.

---