BITF Coiling on the Pivot: Setups Favor a Push to R1 (≈1.31)

Not financial advice. Do your own research and use risk management.

Executive summary

• BITF has been consolidating for ~3 weeks between 1.23–1.33 after a July breakout. Price closed 1.26 on Aug 15 and sits just above the 20-day MA (~1.24) and well above the 50-day MA (~1.08–1.10). Momentum is neutral-to-slightly positive, volatility is contracting, and volume has tapered — classic coil before direction. Into the next session, odds favor a push toward 1.30–1.31 (R1 area) as long as 1.23–1.25 holds.

Price action, structure, and levels

• Trend context: From late June lows (~0.70–0.80) BITF staged a sustained rally to a 1.35 peak (Jul 22), then entered a sideways consolidation (1.23–1.33). Structure shows higher swing lows (Aug 1 ~1.16 → mid-Aug ~1.23–1.25) against a relatively flat resistance near 1.30–1.33 — an ascending triangle variant.
• Key supports: 1.23 (61.8% Fib and range floor), 1.25–1.26 (pivot zone/anchored VWAP area), 1.20–1.22 (top of July gap). Sellers repeatedly failed to sustain breaks below 1.23; Aug 15 intraday low 1.22 was bought, closing back near 1.26.
• Key resistances: 1.30–1.31 (R1 cluster and recent swing highs), 1.33–1.35 (prior breakout highs and Bollinger upper band region). A daily close above ~1.33 would confirm a continuation breakout.
• Candlesticks: Recent sessions show small bodies/upper-lower wicks (indecision) but with consistent demand emerging on dips to 1.22–1.25 (lower tail rejections). Aug 15 resembles a spinning top around the daily pivot — constructive in context after testing S1.

Moving averages and trend indicators

• 20-day SMA ≈ 1.24: Price currently above, indicating short-term bullish bias.
• 10-day EMA ≈ 1.26: Price is tracking the fast average; holding above suggests buyers maintaining control on shallow dips.
• 50-day SMA ≈ 1.08–1.10 (est.): Price well above, confirming a medium-term uptrend remains intact.
• ADX (14) ≈ ~20: Trend strength modest; consolidation rather than strong trend, which fits a coil scenario where direction can emerge after compression.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (14) ≈ low-to-mid 50s: Neutral, slightly bullish; ample room to move up before overbought.
• MACD (12,26,9): Histogram nearly flat to slightly positive; lines close to zero, consistent with a base and potential bullish re-acceleration on a push through 1.30–1.31.
• Stochastic (14,3,3): Around mid-range and curling up — favoring a test of range highs if support holds.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR (14) ≈ 0.07–0.09: Implies typical daily range of ~6–7% around current price. From 1.26, an ATR move projects to ~1.19–1.33 extremes; within a mean-reversion coil the next session likely lives inside 1.23–1.31.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Mid-band ~1.24; estimated upper ~1.32–1.33, lower ~1.16. Bands have narrowed (volatility contraction), increasing the probability of a directional expansion. Current price sits slightly above mid-band with headroom to the upper band.

Support/resistance confluence and pivots

• Classic pivots (calculated from Aug 15: H=1.31, L=1.22, C=1.26):
  • Pivot P ≈ 1.263
  • R1 ≈ 1.307; R2 ≈ 1.353
  • S1 ≈ 1.217; S2 ≈ 1.173
• With price hovering near P, a sustained bid above the pivot biases a move toward R1 (~1.30–1.31). Rejection at the pivot risks a probe of S1 (~1.22), but buyers have repeatedly defended this zone.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• From the July high (1.35) to the Aug 1 reaction low (1.16):
  • 38.2%: ~1.277
  • 50%: ~1.255
  • 61.8%: ~1.232
• Price oscillates around the 50% retracement and recently bounced just above the 61.8%. That clustering (1.23–1.26) is robust support. An ascending-triangle measured move (1.33 top – 1.16 base ≈ 0.17) targets ~1.50 on a confirmed breakout; near-term (24h) the practical objective is the R1/upper-band retest (1.30–1.32).

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price likely at/above the Kumo with Tenkan ~1.27 and Kijun ~1.25. The Tenkan≈Kijun pinch around current price indicates equilibrium; a close above Tenkan and through recent highs would reassert trend. Kijun at ~1.25 is a natural pullback buy zone.

Volume/flow analysis

• Volume peaked on the breakout (Jul 22 ~60M) then tapered to ~20–31M — textbook post-breakout consolidation. No clear distribution: OBV has flattened rather than trending down, and dips are met with demand near 1.23–1.25. Volume-by-price suggests a shelf in the 1.24–1.26 area and a lighter zone above 1.30, implying relatively low resistance once 1.31 is cleared intraday.

VWAP/Anchored VWAP

• Anchored to the Jul 22 breakout, AVWAP likely traverses ~1.25–1.27 currently. Price holding near/above anchored VWAP is constructive; pullbacks to AVWAP have been bought.

Regression channel and mean reversion

• A short-term linear regression channel since late July slopes mildly upward; price is near the channel midline, favoring a drift toward the upper rail (~1.30–1.31) if buyers maintain control.

Catalysts and correlations (context-only)

• As a Bitcoin miner, BITF often correlates with BTC beta. While not modeled here, the chart’s resilience above 1.23 suggests dip buyers step in regardless of brief crypto volatility spikes. Absence of distribution in volume supports constructive beta exposure.

24-hour outlook and scenarios (next trading session)

• Base case (~55–60%): Hold 1.25–1.26 on open → push to test 1.30–1.31 (R1) with potential wicks toward 1.32. Close near 1.29–1.31.
• Bull case (~25–30%): Quick bid through 1.31 with momentum carry to 1.32–1.33; daily close ≥1.31 sets up a stronger breakout attempt later in the week.
• Bear case (~15–20%): Early rejection at pivot → probe to 1.23–1.24; buyers defend; close 1.25–1.27. Only a firm break and hold below 1.23 would open 1.20–1.22 (S1/S2), which is lower probability in this window.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy dips into the 1.25 zone (Kijun/50% Fib/pivot cluster) for a push toward R1 1.30–1.31.
• Entry: Buy limit ~1.255 (slight undercut of pivot to increase fill probability on a routine opening dip). If momentum gap-up >1.28 at open, an alternative is a pullback buy to ~1.27; however, primary plan remains 1.255.
• Profit target (24h): 1.31 (R1/near upper rail); optional stretch 1.32 if tape is strong.
• Risk management (not part of the schema, but essential): Consider a stop below 1.23 (below 61.8% Fib and recent defended floor) to keep risk ~0.025–0.03 vs reward ~0.055, roughly 1.8–2.2:1 R:R.

Why this should work

• Confluence: 50%–61.8% Fib cluster, pivot P, anchored VWAP, Kijun, and volume shelf all align 1.23–1.26, repeatedly defended. Momentum indicators are neutral with room higher; Bollinger squeeze favors an expansion move, and R1 aligns with recent swing supply (1.30–1.31). The path of least resistance in the next session is a test of that band.

Risks to thesis

• A decisive break and hold below 1.23 (with expanding volume) would shift control to sellers toward 1.20–1.22 quickly.
• Macro/crypto headline risk could amplify gaps; if a gap opens below 1.23, reassess — the setup degrades.