BULL: Sell the Pop Into 9.80—Fade to 9.20 as the Downtrend Reasserts

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Mildly bearish-to-range. Expect a reflex pop into 9.78–9.96 (classic R1–R2) to be sold, with intraday fade back toward 9.33–9.20 (S1–S2). Base case is a lower-high under 10.00 followed by weakness.
• Plan: Short strength near 9.80 (R1/pullback toward prior micro-supply), target 9.20 (just above S2), with risk managed above 10.05–10.10.

1. Market structure and trend (daily)

• Primary trend: Down. From late July’s 17–18 peak to current 9.64, price has made consistent lower highs/lows. Price resides below the 20/50/200-day moving averages – a bearish state.
• Regime shift day: 2025-10-08 saw a high-volume breakdown (164.7M shares) and large gap down, which re-anchored supply overhead and created a new value area lower. Subsequent rallies have stalled below successively lower resistance levels.
• Recent sequence: 11/03 close 10.35 → 11/04 9.71 → 11/05 9.94 bounce → 11/06 9.63 → 11/07 9.64. This marks a weak consolidation just above fresh lows (intraday 11/07 low 9.18), typical of a bear flag/pause.
• After-hours tape: 11/07–11/08 printed 9.70–9.78. Small premium to cash close suggests scope for a minor open pop, not a trend change.

2. Support/Resistance map (confluence-driven)

• Immediate supports: 9.50–9.55 (psych), 9.33 (classic S1), 9.20–9.02 (S2 band), 8.86 (S3), 9.18 (11/07 intraday low).
• Near-term resistances: 9.80 (classic R1 and prior intraday supply), 9.96 (R2), 10.00–10.05 (psych/round), 10.27 (R3/upper bound of plausible pop), 10.79–10.83 (10/30–31 closes), 11.29–11.61 (heavy supply and 38.2% fib of the larger swing).
• Volume memory: Heavy participation 10.8–11.6 from October’s consolidation; expect supply to reassert on tests into 10+.

3. Pivot levels (calculated from 11/07 OHLC: H 9.65, L 9.18, C 9.64)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = 9.49
• R1 = 9.80, R2 = 9.96, R3 = 10.27
• S1 = 9.33, S2 = 9.02, S3 = 8.86 These levels align with the plan to sell a push into R1/R2, targeting S1/S2.

4. Moving averages

• 20-D SMA ≈ 10.9–11.0 (price below) → bearish bias; potential mean reversion ceiling.
• 50-D SMA ≈ mid-13s; 200-D SMA materially higher. Full bearish alignment (price < 20 < 50 < 200).
• Implication: Rallies are countertrend; favor sells into strength until price reclaims and holds above the 20-D SMA.

5. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): low-to-mid 30s. Hovering near oversold but not extreme; typical of persistent downtrends where RSI rides the bear range (20–50). This supports selling rallies.
• Stochastics: Embedded in lower quadrant with occasional up-kinks that have failed under 10.0–10.3. Any stochastic uptick on a gap/pop is a fade candidate if price remains below 10.05–10.10.
• MACD: Negative and below signal; histogram contraction hints at waning downside momentum but no confirmed cross. A small positive divergence is possible versus the 11/04 swing, which typically yields short-lived bounces within a broader downtrend.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) est. 0.60–0.80. This supports plausible intraday range of ~±3–4% from the open; thus a 9.80 → 9.20 move is within 1–1.5x ATR.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 10.95; lower band likely high-9s. Price hugging the lower band indicates trend pressure; mean reversion pops toward the mid-band tend to fail early in strong downtrends—hence favoring a sell near the upper edge of the local micro-range (R1/R2) rather than chasing lows.

7. Volume and money flow

• 10/08 capitulation created a new supply overhang; subsequent down legs show declining but still-elevated volume. No classic selling climax + immediate reversal signature since; OBV would be making lower lows.
• CMF/MFI likely negative, confirming net distribution. Short interest behavior unknown, but price/volume suggests supply dominance.

8. Pattern work

• Bear flag/channel: Since late September’s 15.55, swings compressing downward with countertrend bounces topping at lower highs. The 11/05 pop to 9.94 followed by lower close points to a flag that broke lower on 11/06–11/07.
• Micro double-bottom attempt: 9.55 (11/04 low) vs 9.18 (11/07 low) is lower, not equal—so no valid double bottom yet. This argues against an imminent durable reversal.
• Gaps: The October break left overhead gap-supplies in the low 12s. Current action is well below; gaps often act as magnets later but only after base-building, which we do not yet see.

9. Fibonacci context

• Swing ref: 9/29 high 15.55 → 11/07 low 9.18.
• Retracement targets for any bounce: 38.2% ≈ 11.61, 50% ≈ 12.36, 61.8% ≈ 13.15. These are distant; the first meaningful fib supply sits well above current price, reinforcing the notion that the next 24h is unlikely to power through 10.3 sustainably.
• Near-term intraday fibs (micro swing 9.18 → 9.65): 61.8% pullback from 9.65 is ~9.40; confluence with S1 9.33 bolsters a downside magnet after a pop.

10. Ichimoku

• Price < Tenkan < Kijun; cloud overhead and likely thick from the October volatility. Bearish state. Even a push to 10.0–10.3 remains below Tenkan/Kijun on daily, which typically rejects initial rallies.

11. VWAP/anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP pop-and-fade setup expected if Monday opens near 9.75–9.85. In downtrends, intraday pokes above VWAP early often revert back below with afternoon weakness.
• Anchored VWAP from the 10/08 breakdown would reside materially above (est. > 11), highlighting continued overhead supply.

12. Wyckoff lens

• Distribution → markdown phase. No clear accumulation stopping action (no strong spring/shakeout and absorption). Current price behavior is a weak secondary test of lows—often followed by one more drive lower or a range extension down.

13. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• A 5-wave down from 15.55 into 9.18 looks plausible. If so, a modest ABC up could begin soon, but the first “A” typically stalls under former supports (~10.0–10.3) before a “B” retest lower. For next 24h, that suggests a sell-the-pop profile.

14. Market profile/volume nodes (approx)

• High-volume node: 10.8–11.6 (overhead supply). Low-volume pocket around ~9.9–10.1 which often acts as a rejection zone on first test. Below, a developing node 9.2–9.5 where price is attempting to build acceptance; breaks often probe 9.0–9.1.

15. Classical pivots and expected path for next session (11/10)

• Base case (45%): Early pop toward R1 (9.80) and probe R2 (9.96) fails; afternoon fades to S1 (9.33) with a settle 9.30–9.45.
• Bear extension (30%): Weak open, loss of 9.33 and 9.20 triggers stop runs to 9.02–8.95; late-day bounce back to ~9.15–9.25.
• Bull surprise (25%): Strong open, reclaim 9.96 and hold >10.00; squeeze to 10.20–10.27 (R3) before stalling. Sustainment above 10.27 would be needed to challenge 10.8 later, which is unlikely within 24h absent a catalyst.

16. Risk/reward, execution and validation

• Entry: Limit sell 9.80 (R1), allowing adverse excursion to 9.96–10.05 without invalidation. Best fills come on morning liquidity spikes.
• Target: 9.20 (just above S2) aligns with ATR and prior low cluster, offering ~6–7% move from entry and a positive R:R if stop is 10.10–10.20.
• Invalidation: Hourly close above 10.10 or daily close >10.27 (R3) reduces edge; reassess.
• Optional scale plan: Add 1/3 at 9.96 if tagged; cover 1/2 at 9.33 (S1), rest at 9.20.

17. Why Sell vs Buy here

• Trend, MA stack, and volume structure favor selling rallies. Oscillators are attempting to bounce but within a bear-range context. The confluence at 9.80–9.96 (R1/R2, LVN/round 10.00) is a technical magnet that typically rejects first tests in downtrends. Until a base forms and 20-D SMA is reclaimed, the path of least resistance is lower.

24-hour price prediction

• Expect an initial push into 9.78–9.96 followed by rejection and a fade into 9.33–9.20. Intraday extremes: 9.02–10.27 range has low probability but is feasible if volatility expands. Likely close: 9.30–9.45.

Trade summary for next session

• Action: Sell (short) a pop.
• Open (limit) at 9.80. Target 9.20. Suggested risk cap above 10.10 (not part of the requested output, but critical for risk control).