Comprehensive Technical Analysis for CAN (Canaan Inc.)

Step 1: Long-Term Trend Analysis

Examining the daily data from April 2025 to the present, CAN experienced multiple phases:

• April–Mid-May: High volatility but mostly range-bound between $0.60 and $0.90.
• Mid-May–Mid-July: Increased range and sudden surges toward and above $0.90, with peaks near $1.12 on July 17th, indicating speculative activity and potential catalyst-driven volatility.
• Late July: Massive volume spikes (191 million on July 14!) followed by sharp declines, consistent with blow-off tops and distribution phases.
• Recent Activity: A steep selloff from $0.97 (Jul 14), with closes consistently stepping lower: $0.87 (Jul 15), $0.97 (Jul 16), $0.95 (Jul 17), $0.89 (Jul 18), $0.81 (Jul 21), $0.82 (Jul 22), $0.87 (Jul 23), $0.83 (Jul 24), $0.79 (Jul 25), $0.73 (Jul 28), $0.65 (Jul 29), and now $0.6541 (Jul 30, 21:00 UTC).

Conclusion:

• The long-term uptrend has reversed with a clear shift to a downtrend post-peak. High volumes on the breakdown support distribution and exit of large traders.

Step 2: Short-Term Price Action & Candlestick Patterns

• Intraday (Today): The hourly chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows through July 30. After a climb to $0.70 (13:00–13:30), each pullback is met with heavy selling. The close is at session lows ($0.6541), suggesting buyers are not defending support levels.
• Candles: Most recent daily candles are large red-bodied, closing near their lows — strong bearish signals (marubozu-like structures).
• Volume Spike on Declines: Heavy volume on every drop ($43M–$320M) infers panic selling and lack of buy absorption.

Step 3: Support, Resistance, & Key Levels

• Short-Term Support: The next confirmed historical support is near $0.62 (seen multiple times from late June through early July). If breached, $0.60 (psychological) is next.
• Short-Term Resistance: Immediate resistance is $0.68–$0.70 (where the last bull rally failed intraday today). Additional resistances at $0.73, $0.80, and $0.87 (previous breakdown levels).

Step 4: Moving Averages & Trend-following

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA): Over the last ~30 sessions, the 10-day SMA is declining sharply and sits well above current price ($0.75+). The 50-day is also trending lower. The price is deeply below all key SMAs — strong bearish signal.
• EMA Short-term: Estimated 5EMA is tracking just above $0.66, still above the current print, confirming downward pressure.

Step 5: Momentum & Oscillators

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Manually estimated RSI (based on recent aggressive pushes lower and distance from highs) is entering/approaching oversold territory, but NOT at an inflection. This is characteristic for continuing downtrends before any bounce. No reversal divergence spotted.
• MACD: The fast and slow lines (estimate) remain well below zero and the histogram is negative and growing — renewal of bearish momentum.

Step 6: Volume Analysis

• Distribution Phase: Sharp spike in volume (hundreds of millions on big down days) is characteristic of institutional exit and panic selling — NOT accumulation.
• Recent Volume Drops: Less volume in the bounce attempts supports that sellers are in control and bounces are weak.

Step 7: Volatility Assessment

• ATR Assessment: The recent average true range (ATR) is high compared to previous months — sharp daily moves lead to a dangerous environment for long positioning.
• Volatility Clustering: Price spends more time with high volatility after major breakdowns; don't expect immediate stabilization.

Step 8: Chart Patterns

• Dead Cat Bounce: After each drop, mild bounces quickly failed (e.g., Jul 25–28, $0.79 to $0.73, then $0.65). This is typical of a bleeding market.
• Bear Flag/Pennant Formation: Minor consolidations after drops have resolved lower (textbook bear flags).
• Gap Downs: Subtle intraday gaps, followed by aggressive selling, reinforce the trend.

Step 9: Order Flow and Tape Reading

• Order Book (Hypothetical): Below $0.65, stops and algos likely accelerate the move to $0.62 or even $0.60. Lack of thick buy-side demand due to risk-off sentiment.

Step 10: External Catalysts/Contextual Considerations

• Extreme Move Catalyst (Jul 14+): Likely news-driven blow-off top, but post-event, no meaningful reversal signal. Risk of further downside persists.
• Below $1.00/Delisting Risk: Extended stay below $1.00 could be causing additional forced selling (index funds, compliance, etc.).

Synthesis & 24h Price Forecast

• Bias is Bearish: All indicators — trend, volume, momentum, structure, and failed bounces — indicate more downside.
• 24h Prediction:
  • Loss of $0.65 is imminent; expect a probe toward $0.62 (possible liquidity search).
  • Intraday lows may extend as low as $0.60–$0.62 if stop-runs trigger overnight.
  • Upside rallies to $0.68–$0.70 should be sold into; not enough volume or reversal signals to expect sustainable uptrend.
• Optimal Trading Plan:
  • Short rallies, sell near resistance, avoid buying until a sharp reversal with genuine demand emerges.

Final Conclusion

• "Sell (Short position)" is the highest probability trade, with entry just below the failed support region and a target in line with historical support ($0.62).

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TL;DR (Summary Table)

Factor	Reading	Implication
Trend Direction	Down	Bearish
Volume	High, Down	Distribution
Momentum Oscillators	Oversold	No Reversal Signal
Support	$0.62, $0.60	May Break Soon
Resistance	$0.68–0.70	Sell Rallies
Pattern	Bear Flag	More Downside?
Volatility	Elevated	Shorter Timeframes
Risk	High	Tight Stop, Gradual Scaling

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Trading Plan

• Trade: Short (Sell)
• Open price: $0.6541 (current price is ideal; consider limit order $0.654)
• Target (Close price): $0.6200 (next major daily support)
• Stop-loss: Not explicitly requested, but prudent stop at $0.6800 (above failed breakout zone) recommended for risk control.

Summary: All signals point to a persistent bearish trend with $0.62 as an actionable near-term target. Buying is high-risk unless a strong reversal and volume confirmation emerge. Sellers remain in control.