Breakaway Gap Coils: CDTX Poised for a Flat-Top Breakout Above 218.8

Step 1 — Context and data integrity check

• Instrument: Cidara Therapeutics, Inc. (CDTX), price in USD, current ~217.91.
• Data span: Daily OHLCV from 2025-07-21 to 2025-11-14, then intraday (hourly) prints for 2025-11-17. Notable regime shift on 2025-11-14 with a major gap up from ~106 to ~217–219 range on heavy volume (17.29M shares), followed by 2025-11-17 intraday consolidation between ~217.41 and ~218.77 with steady volume.
• Interpretation: A structural repricing event produced a breakaway gap and now price is compressing tightly, suggesting a “pause that refreshes.”

Step 2 — Price action and structure (multi-timeframe) Daily trend:

• July–Aug: Accumulation and base between ~60–67 with multiple tests; gradual higher lows.
• Sep: Breakout leg to ~90–100 with expansion in range and volume, confirming trend transition from accumulation to markup.
• Oct: Volatile uptrend with pullbacks to ~93–110 zone, establishing rising swing lows; trend remains intact.
• Nov 14: Major upside gap to ~217–219; close near the high, qualifying as a breakaway gap with wide range and a strong bullish body. This places price well above any medium/long-term moving-average proxies, signaling a powerful regime change.
• 11/17 session (intraday): Inside-type consolidation relative to 11/14 range; narrow true range (H 218.77 / L 217.41). Tactical structure looks like an ascending triangle/flat-top consolidation intraday with repeated tests of ~218.7–218.8 resistance, and higher intraday lows, typical of energy build for continuation.

Intraday microstructure (11/17):

• Value is building around 218.0 (Point of Control-like behavior). Repeated reversion toward ~218.0 suggests it’s the current fair value; pushes toward 218.7 were sold, while dips toward 217.4 were bought. This balance within a tight band after a huge gap is constructive—supply appears orderly, not aggressive.

Step 3 — Volume analytics

• Gap day volume (11/14): 17.29M vs prior days mostly <1.2M. On-Balance Volume (OBV) would show a sharp positive inflection, typical of initiation of a new markup phase.
• 11/17: ~5.49M shares reported in the dataset so far, smaller than gap day (as expected) but still elevated vs pre-gap history. Diminishing volume during consolidation is bullish (supply absorption) if followed by an expansion on breakout.
• Volume distribution: Most prints center around 218.0–218.3; buyers repeatedly defend ~217.4–217.8, implying passive bids absorbing supply.

Step 4 — Candlestick / pattern diagnostics

• Breakaway gap (11/14): Often does not fill quickly; instead, price consolidates above the gap and continues. The close near highs with tight follow-up day supports a bull flag/base-on-base.
• 11/17 candles: Doji-like/range-bound bars intraday near the top of the gap day: often a “rest” day after initiation. Multiple upper wicks near 218.7–218.8 define a clear trigger level for momentum.
• Pattern read: Flat-top consolidation/ascending triangle on intraday charts with resistance ~218.75–218.80; support shelf ~217.40–217.60 and secondary support ~216.80 (gap day low).

Step 5 — Moving averages (qualitative due to regime shift)

• All common SMAs/EMAs (10/20/50) lag far below price after the gap. The slope of shorter averages (e.g., 10–20 day) is now sharply positive; longer-term averages are catching up. When price is this extended above MAs after a structural gap, the higher-probability play is to buy strength on continuation rather than fade aggressively, provided volume confirms.

Step 6 — Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily): Post-gap RSI typically runs hot (>70) and then cools by time-based consolidation. With price largely unchanged since the gap, the overbought condition is more likely normalizing by time rather than price. That’s bullish.
• Stochastics: After an impulsive move, fast stochs often cycle down during sideways action; a turn up from mid-levels on a breakout would confirm momentum re-acceleration.
• MACD: Gap up creates a positive MACD histogram burst; consolidation likely reduced the histogram while the signal remains positive. A push through 218.8 should re-expand histogram bars.

Step 7 — Volatility and range structure

• ATR (daily): Jumped sharply on gap day; subsequent contraction indicates volatility compression/squeeze—the classic setup for a range expansion in the next 1–2 sessions.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Bands widened on gap; price is holding near the upper band without a reversal. Riding/walking the upper band after a breakaway often precedes further upside bursts once consolidation ends.

Step 8 — VWAP and intraday reference levels

• Session VWAP (11/17) hovers near ~218.0. Price repeatedly magnetized to VWAP, with mild premium/discount oscillations. Into the close, price remains near VWAP, suggesting fair value acceptance rather than rejection. A decisive move away from VWAP with volume (preferably upward through 218.8) signals initiative buying and trend day potential for the next session.

Step 9 — Support/Resistance map

• R1: 218.75–218.85 (intraday ceiling and gap-day high proximity)
• R2: 220.00 (psychological round number)
• R3: 221.50–222.00 (measured move from range height add-on; also round-number cluster and potential extension)
• S1: 217.40–217.60 (intraday demand shelf)
• S2: 216.80 (gap day low; pivotal for maintaining the breakaway gap integrity)
• S3: 215.00 (secondary cushion; loss of this suggests a deeper mean reversion)

Step 10 — Fibonacci context

• Using 11/14 low (216.80) to 11/17 intraday high (218.77):
  • 38.2% ~ 218.07
  • 61.8% ~ 217.50 Price oscillated between these Fibs most of the session, denoting balanced two-way trade. A break above 218.77 projects to a 100% measured move of about 220.7; 1.618 extension implies ~221.6—both align with R2/R3 zones.
• Larger swing Fibs are distorted by the structural gap, so near-term intraday anchors are more informative for the next 24 hours.

Step 11 — Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price far above the cloud with Tenkan > Kijun and a bullishly separated Chikou span (given the jump). Pullbacks toward Tenkan/Kijun are far below current price; hence momentum condition remains bullish. No immediate cloud resistance.

Step 12 — Wyckoff/Elliott framing

• Wyckoff: Phase E (markup) post sign-of-strength (gap). Current action resembles last point of support (LPS) forming just above the gap low, where demand absorbs supply before the next mark-up leg.
• Elliott: The gap can be interpreted as a wave-3 type thrust; present sideways drift resembles wave-4 flat. A minor wave-5 continuation often travels to modest new highs, consistent with 220.7–222.0 targets.

Step 13 — Probabilistic scenarios for next 24 hours

• Bullish continuation breakout (base case ~55%): Early trade pushes through 218.8 with volume > prior 60-min bars, targeting 220.7 first, then 221.6–222.0. If momentum persists, 223–224 is a stretch target, contingent on volume expansion.
• Range extension but unresolved (~30%): Price continues oscillating 217.4–218.8, closing near 218.0–218.5. Outcome neutral; directional trades risk whipsaw.
• Bear mean reversion (~15%): A decisive break below 216.8 opens 215.0 test. Would likely require news/supply shock or broader risk-off tape.

Step 14 — Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Thesis: The structural breakaway, tight two-session consolidation at highs, positive volume backdrop, and multi-tool confluence (VWAP balance, OBV surge, Bollinger “ride,” ATR compression) favor a continuation attempt. Entries should respect the well-defined trigger to avoid getting chopped in the range.
• Entry method: Buy stop above resistance to require confirmation.
  • Trigger/Entry: 218.90 (above intraday ceiling 218.77–218.80 to reduce false breaks).
• Profit target (next 24h): 222.60 (aligns with 1–1.5x measured move from range height and Fibonacci 1.618 extension cluster at ~221.6, adding a small overshoot buffer). This represents ~+1.7% from entry, appropriate for a low-volatility post-gap session.
• Risk control (not requested for output, but critical): Initial stop 216.60 (below 11/14 low 216.80 with small buffer). R:R from 218.90→222.60 vs stop at 216.60 ≈ 3.7 gain / 2.3 risk ≈ 1.6:1, acceptable given setup quality. If breakout stalls but holds >218.0, consider trailing stop below session VWAP or last higher low to protect gains.
• Contingency: If price fails to trigger (stays below 218.8) or breaks 216.8 first, stand aside; shorting a fresh structural gap without failure confirmation is lower expectancy.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Expectation: A modest bullish drift with a breakout attempt above 218.8 is favored. The most likely path is a push toward 220.7 initial, with 221.6–222.6 achievable if volume expands. Downside risk increases only on a decisive break below 216.8, which currently has not been threatened.
• Actionable decision: Buy on strength using a stop-entry at 218.90, target 222.60 within the next 24 hours, with disciplined risk management below 216.60.