Celsius Holdings, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

CELH: Fade the Gap-Window Rejection — Short Rallies Into 45.7–46.6 for a Move Back to Low-43s

Step-by-step multi-method technical analysis for CELH (next 24 hours)

Big picture: After a strong run through late summer into mid-October (mid-60s), CELH suffered a high-volume gap-down on 2025-11-06 from ~60 to the mid-40s, a regime shift from uptrend to downtrend. Subsequent sessions show an attempt to stabilize between ~40.5 and ~46.5 with heavy overhead supply.
Current state: Last trade ~44.91, inside a post-gap consolidation. Intraday 2025-11-12 spiked to 46.53 then faded, closing near 44.9, leaving a prominent upper wick—classic sign of supply absorption at resistance.
Key zones: • Support: 43.5 (11/12 and 11/11 intraday pivots), 41.5 (11/07 close), and 40.4 (11/07 low). • Resistance: 46.2–46.6 (today’s rejection zone), 47.6–47.9 (gap open + 38.2% Fib of the 59.92→40.43 drop), then 50.2 (50% Fib) if a squeeze occurs.

Daily trend: Down. Price is well below key moving averages (10/20/50-day), reflecting a dominant bearish regime.
Intraday (hourly snapshots provided): A countertrend rally attempt into 46.5 rejected; the late-day fade suggests sellers remain in control near the gap window.
Price memory: The unfilled gap (47.6+ region) acts as a magnet but also as formidable resistance; first test typically fails unless buyers overwhelm supply.

5-day SMA (approx): ~43.96. Price (44.91) modestly above—short-term bounce in a broader downtrend.
10-day SMA (approx): ~51.9. Price well below—medium-term still decisively bearish.
20-day SMA (computed from last 20 closes): ~57.41. Price is ~21.9% below—deeply below mean, indicative of a broken trend and post-event volatility regime.
50-day SMA (approx, given series mostly 58–63 pre-gap): ~59–60. Price far below—confirms longer-term downtrend.
Crossovers: Short MAs have rolled under longer MAs; a bearish stack (5 < 10 < 20 < 50) is likely in effect.

RSI(14) (qualitative estimate): Likely 30–35 after the gap shock and modest bounce—still near/just above oversold. This supports short-term mean-reversion pops but not a trend reversal yet.
Stochastics: Oversold region with a tentative cross-up early week, but today’s failure near resistance implies momentum waning again at the 46–47 band.
MACD (12/26/9): Negative after the gap. Histogram likely improving from worst levels (bullish divergence vs. 11/07 low), but signal remains below zero—bear market rally behavior rather than a new bull leg.

ATR(14) (approx): 2.5–3.5 given the post-gap daily ranges. Expect a 24-hour realized range around ±$3 from the entry pivot.
Bollinger Bands(20,2): With 20-day mean ~57.4 and elevated standard deviation, the lower band likely sits in the mid-40s. Price is hugging the lower band area—typical of a bearish trend with occasional snapbacks; expands risk but still favors rallies being sold.
Keltner Channels: Would also show price riding lower envelope—bearish bias consistent with BB observation.

Volume spike diagnostics: 11/06 (≈38.9M) and 11/07 (≈23.7M) indicate an event day with institutional repositioning (likely earnings-related). Such days often set an Anchored VWAP gravity point.
Post-event volume: Elevated but declining—distribution transitioning into range trading. Today’s intraday surge into 46.53 occurred with volume, then immediate rejection—clear overhead supply.
OBV (qualitative): Downtrend since 11/06, marginal improvement only on bounces—accumulation not evident.

Given the heavy turnover 42.9–49.1 on 11/06 and follow-through, anchored VWAP likely resides near mid-45s to mid-46s. Today’s action around 46 and failure to hold above fits the idea that price met the AVWAP and was rejected—bearish for the next session unless reclaimed decisively.

Shock leg: 59.92 (pre-gap close 11/05) to 40.43 (11/07 low) = range 19.49.
38.2% retrace: 40.43 + 0.382*19.49 ≈ 47.87. Confluence near the gap open at 47.6—potent resistance band.
50% retrace: ≈ 50.18. Would require a strong squeeze—only relevant if 47.9 breaks.
61.8% retrace: ≈ 52.47. Low probability in 24h absent a major catalyst.

Post-gap consolidation resembles a bear flag / rectangle (40.4–46.5). Today’s upper wick into the top of the range followed by fade supports the notion that the flag’s upper boundary is intact.
Candlestick: 2025-11-12 intraday prints a long upper shadow (shooting-star-like), often preceding near-term weakness.

Elliott framing: Impulsive wave down (gap leg) followed by an ABC corrective bounce with B/C topping attempts around 46–47. Failure to exceed 47 suggests another minor leg lower (C of a larger corrective, or a continuation in the primary downtrend).

Base case (55%): Mean-reversion bounce attempts stall below 46.2–46.6; price drifts lower to retest 43.5 support. If 43.5 gives, quick probe toward 42.5–41.8 possible but 41–42 bids likely defend on first touch.
Bear extension (25%): Early weakness breaks 43.5 convincingly and vol expands; 41.5 then 40.5 tested. Requires risk-off tape or negative headline.
Bull squeeze (20%): If early tape reclaims 46.2 and holds above 46.6, a momentum squeeze could press to 47.6–47.9 (gap/38.2% Fib). Expect heavy supply there. A sustained close above ~48 would be the first technically meaningful victory for bulls.
Expected 24h range: ~43.0 to ~46.2, skewed slightly downward; tails to 42.0 or 47.0 possible on outsized flows.

Bias: Sell strength (short into resistance) in a dominant downtrend with overhead supply and a fresh rejection at the gap window.
Entry: Prefer a patient limit entry on a bounce toward resistance rather than chasing at 44.9. The 45.6–45.9 pocket offers a favorable R:R given repeated sellers near 46–46.5 and the AVWAP confluence.
Target: First target 43.2–43.5 (support cluster and recent intraday lows). This captures ~2.2–2.7 points from a 45.7 entry—roughly 0.7–1.0x ATR, realistic within 24 hours.
Invalidation (for risk control; not part of TP): A decisive push and hold above ~46.7–47.0 would indicate sellers losing grip; above 47.6–47.9 opens a gap-fill attempt. A tactical stop slightly above 46.8–47.0 is prudent for short-term trades.

Trend/MAs: Strongly bearish (Sell).
Momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch): Oversold but failing at resistance; momentum upswings being sold (Sell rallies).
Volume/AVWAP: Supply at AVWAP/gap zone dominates (Sell).
Volatility/ATR/BB: Elevated vol favors fading extensions; lower-band hugging continues (Sell).
Fibs/Levels: 46.6–47.9 is a confluence cap; expect rejection unless exceptional flow (Sell into that zone).

Expect a choppy-to-lower session with rallies failing below 46.2–46.6 and price gravitating back to 43.5. Probability-weighted path favors a retest of the low-43s. Only if 46.6 is reclaimed and held do we consider a squeeze toward 47.6–47.9—less likely in the immediate 24-hour window.

Trade plan summary

Position: Short on strength.
Optimal open (limit sell): 45.70 near intraday resistance/AVWAP pocket.
Profit-taking: 43.20 (above deeper support 41.5–40.4, aligned with recent intraday pivot ~43.5). This seeks a timely 24h capture without over-staying.
Note: If no bounce to entry zone occurs, an alternative is to scale from 45.2–45.7; however, the primary optimal print is 45.70.