COGT’s Breakaway Gap Sets Up a Day-3 Momentum Push: Buy the Dip for a Run at 36

Executive summary

• Signal: Strong momentum continuation after a breakaway gap on heavy volume. Day-2 hammer/recovery suggests demand absorption and higher odds of a Day-3 push toward prior gap-day high (36.15) and pivot resistance (≈35.66), with stretch targets toward 37.9 if momentum persists.
• Bias next 24 hours: Bullish with buy-the-dip preference into 33.0–32.8, add/hold through a 34.5 breakout. Expect early volatility and a trend attempt to the upside.
• Plan: Buy on a controlled pullback near 33.05. Primary profit objective 36.20 (just below prior high/round-number confluence). Invalidation on decisive loss of 31.7–31.5.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• July–August base: Price coiled in 10.8–12.5 range, building a multi-week base with rising participation into late August.
• September–October advance: Breakout toward 14–16 established a higher structural band, then a multi-week consolidation with shallow pullbacks—constructive prelude to a larger move.
• November 10 (gap day): Breakaway gap from ~14.8 close to a 32.76 open, 36.15 high, 31.00 low, closing 32.46 on 23.29M shares (massive volume climax). This is classic “event gap” behavior (likely clinical/biotech catalyst) and often precedes multi-day trend legs.
• November 11 (today): Open 31.11, flushed to 28.87, then buyers stepped in, driving a strong recovery to 33.42–33.64 into the close with 8.79M shares. Intraday prints show a hammer-like recovery and higher close versus prior day—bullish follow-through.

Interpretation: Structure transitioned from multi-month base to momentum regime. Breakaway gaps that hold above 50% of Day-1 range and print Day-2 recovery hammers are statistically skewed to continuation over the next 1–3 sessions.

2. Candlestick/price pattern analysis

• Day-1 gap candle: Large real body with long upper wick—typical of initial euphoria and profit-taking. Not a reversal alone given context and volume.
• Day-2 hammer/recovery: Deep early dip to 28.87 (testing fib and prior supply) reversed strongly to finish near highs. This is demand absorption and indicates responsive buyers below 32.
• Intraday micro-structure (11/11): • Opening drive lower into 28.87 found strong responsive buying. • Higher-lows sequence formed after 16:30–17:30 UTC with a sustained reclaim of 33. • Tightening late-day range closed strong near session highs, indicating buyers willing to hold risk overnight.
• Pattern takeaway: Bull flag/flagpole anatomy on the 60-min chart with a hammer as the pole’s consolidation end. A breakout above 34.5 unlocks measured move potential.

3. Support/resistance mapping

• Key supports: 33.0–32.8 (HVN/acceptance), 32.3 pivot (see pivots), 31.7–31.5 (intraday shelf and invalidation area), 31.1 (session sweep), 28.87 (Day-2 low; 38.2% retrace of the entire gap impulse—see below).
• Key resistances: 33.9–34.2 (late-day supply), 34.5 (intraday high/breakout trigger), 35.66 (R1 pivot), 36.15 (gap-day high/major reference), 37.9 (R2 projection), 40.0 (psychological/round number if momentum overextends).

4. Fibonacci levels and confluences

• Entire gap impulse (Nov 7 close 14.82 → Nov 10 high 36.15): range = 21.33. • 38.2% retracement: 36.15 − 0.382×21.33 ≈ 28.00. Day-2 low 28.87 held above this—bullish resilience. • 50%: ~25.99; 61.8%: ~23.83; price never approached—momentum intact.
• Day-2 swing (28.87 → 34.50): • 38.2% pullback ≈ 32.42; 50% ≈ 31.69; 61.8% ≈ 30.96. Midday supports clustered ~32.0–31.8 aligned with these levels. Current price 33.42 is above the 38.2%—healthy for continuation.
• Confluence: 34.5 breakout aligns with measured move toward 36.0–36.3 (prior high + pivot R1 corridor).

5. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Volume: 23.29M on gap day vs ~1–3M baseline = institutional participation. Day-2 at 8.79M remains elevated, typical of a developing trend leg.
• OBV/ADL (qualitative): Steep upshift consistent with accumulation; Day-2 did not show meaningful distribution into the close.
• Intraday VWAP (11/11): Price reclaimed and held above session VWAP into the afternoon and closed above—a classic “strong hands into close” tell.
• Volume profile: HVN around 32.7–33.0 indicates acceptance and a logical dip-buy zone. LVN around 33.6–33.9 suggests if reclaimed, price can traverse quickly toward 34.5.

6. Trend and moving averages

• Short-term: Price well above 5/8/13-EMA stacks (post-gap), indicative of momentum regime. Pullbacks to fast EMAs typically shallow and bought in this phase.
• Intermediate: 20/50-DMA likely clustered 15–16 and 13–14 respectively; price is far above—confirms trend but elevates mean-reversion risk if catalyst fades. In momentum runs, this distance can persist for several sessions.
• Long-term: 200-DMA likely ~11–12; powerful separation underscores regime shift.

7. Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily): Likely mid-80s after a two-session surge—overbought but overbought can persist in event-driven breakouts. Intraday RSI rolled from oversold (after morning flush) back to high-60s/70s—bullish intraday momentum.
• MACD (daily): Fast line well above slow with expanding histogram—trend confirmation. Intraday MACD crossed back up during the afternoon reclaim—continuation setup for next session.
• Stochastics: Embedded high on higher timeframes; intraday reset and re-embedded on the close—constructive for a gap-and-go or early push.

8. Volatility and bands/channels

• ATR(14) has expanded sharply (today’s true range 5.63). Expect 4–6 points of realized range near-term.
• Bollinger Bands: Post-squeeze expansion with price riding/near upper band—classic momentum continuation. Bands widening implies trend, not immediate mean reversion.
• Keltner Channels: Price above upper KC on daily—momentum regime. Pullbacks into upper channel midline often offer entries; that aligns near 32–33.

9. Ichimoku

• Price far above cloud; Tenkan above Kijun; bullish TK cross. Chikou span above price and cloud—strong trend state. Kijun baseline at a distance ~31–32 becomes dynamic support on dips.

10. Pivots for next session (based on 11/11 H=34.50, L=28.87, C=33.42)

• Pivot P ≈ (34.50+28.87+33.42)/3 ≈ 32.26
• R1 ≈ 35.66; S1 ≈ 30.03
• R2 ≈ 37.89; S2 ≈ 26.63
• R3 ≈ 41.29; S3 ≈ 24.40 Confluence: R1 (35.66) sits just below the prior gap-day high (36.15), creating a resistance band. Reaching R1/R2 is feasible within current ATR.

11. Gap dynamics and playbook

• Breakaway gap that holds above 50% of Day-1 range and prints a Day-2 recovery close tends to continue for 2–4 sessions. Failure patterns typically show a Day-2 close back below Day-1 low—did not happen here.
• Today’s deep early test to 28.87 likely shook out weak hands; the strong recovery indicates absorption. This improves odds of a Day-3 push.

12. Scenario planning next 24 hours

• Bullish continuation (base case ~60%): Early dip to 33.0–32.8 finds buyers; reclaim 33.9–34.2 leads to a 34.5 break, extension toward 35.6 (R1) and probe of 36.0–36.2 (prior high zone). Stretch: 37.9 (R2) on momentum if newsflow/volume remain elevated.
• Range/consolidation (neutral ~25%): 32.5–34.5 chop as market digests the gap. Time correction without price damage keeps the setup bullish for the following session.
• Bearish fade (risk ~15%): Early failure at 33.9–34.2 followed by a loss of 32.3 pivot and 31.7 shelf could invite a retest of 31.1 and, in a volatility spike, 30.0–29.5. A decisive close below 31.5 would undermine the momentum thesis near-term.

13. Trade plan and levels

• Entry: Prefer buy-the-dip near 33.05 (HVN/anchored VWAP adjacency, above pivot P=32.26). If no dip and price flags under 34.2, a breakout add/alternate entry is above 34.55 on volume expansion (>1.3× 1-min avg). Primary published entry: 33.05.
• Target: 36.20 (just below prior 36.15 high and within R1–prior-high confluence). This captures the likely Day-3 thrust while front-running obvious liquidity.
• Risk management (for context): Logical stop for active risk would sit below 31.7–31.5 (beneath 50% retrace of Day-2 swing and below intraday shelf). That yields roughly 1.3–1.6 points risk from 33.05 if using a tight stop, or ~1.5–1.8 if using 31.3 buffer, versus ~3.15 points reward to 36.2 (favorable R:R ~1:2). Though not included in execution fields, this is the risk framework.
• Timing: Expect first 60–90 minutes to set the day’s tone. Favor buying flushes into 32.8–33.1 that hold above VWAP/pivot and show positive delta.

14. Why not short?

• Breakaway gap strength with institutional volume, bullish Day-2 hammer close, and expanding bands argue against a short over the next 24 hours. Short setups generally require a failed breakout (close back below 31.7) or an exhaustion gap to 38–40 followed by a reversal signal—not present yet.

15. Risks and watchouts

• Event/biotech headline risk can override technicals; monitor news/ticker halts.
• Elevated IV/ATR implies wider swings; use size discipline.
• If liquidity dries up on a breakout attempt, failed push above 34.5 that reverses below 33.4 could force a deeper retest of 32.3.

Bottom line

• Momentum regime intact, with strong probability of a continuation attempt into 35.6–36.2 within 24 hours. Optimal approach is to buy a controlled pullback near 33.05 with a profit target at 36.20. Invalidation if the market loses 31.7–31.5 on a closing basis.