Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Coursera, Inc. (COUR) as of July 30, 2025

1. Overview of Recent Price Action

• Current Price: $11.96 (as of July 30, 2025, 20:00 UTC)
• Previous Session Close: $12.01
• Intra-day Range (latest full session): $11.78 (low) to $12.24 (high)
• 3-Day Trend: After a dramatic gap-up on July 25 ($9.08 → $12.37, ~36% surge on very high volume), COUR stabilized near $12.5 before a slight retracement to $11.96, exhibiting high intraday volatility and heavy volume.
• Prior Weeks: A steady range between $8.5 to $9.2 was violently broken to the upside.

2. Volume and Price Correlation (Volume-Price Analysis)

• Volume Spike: July 25’s 26.7M shares was more than 10x average daily volume, suggesting major news or catalyst and strong supply absorption.
• Sustained High Volume: Subsequent sessions saw declining volume (16M → 5.1M → 4.7M), signaling initial profit-taking but no panicked exit.
• Interpretation: New institutional interest has likely entered, but some froth is being settled.

3. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (5-EMA): Now near $12.10—price currently fluctuates around this, showing indecision but no decisive breakdown.
• Medium-Term (20-SMA): Approximately $9.30, well below current price due to the recent blast-off.
• Long-Term (50-SMA): Estimated near $8.80.
• Analysis: Price surge far above all MAs establishes a major breakout. Mean-reversion is possible, but no support retests yet.

4. Trend Analysis

• Daily Trend: Rocket move triggered a new uptrend with higher highs and higher lows post-breakout. The last two days shows consolidation.
• Price Structure: After initial breakout and extension, stock now oscillates above new support ($11.60–$12 area).
• Intraday: Several attempts at $12.23 high failed, but $11.78–$11.89 region is being defended.

5. Chart Patterns & Candlestick Analysis

• Gap: Huge gap up July 25, not filled in subsequent days, indicating strength.
• Candlesticks: Long wicks both up and down in recent intraday periods signal indecision but also absorption rather than aggressive selling.
• Pattern: Flag/pennant forming (sideways digestion after vertical move), commonly a bullish continuation setup.

6. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Estimation: Given the parabolic run and recent $12 consolidation, RSI likely cooled from extreme overbought (>80) toward neutral (50–60).
• Interpretation: No obvious overbought signals now, but not yet oversold—bulls still in moderate control.

7. MACD

• Fast line well above slow & zero, but histogram contracting.
• Interpretation: Bullish momentum fading slightly, transitioning into consolidation phase, but no confirmed bearish crossover yet.

8. Support and Resistance Levels

• Nearest Support: $11.75–$12.00
• Major Support: Previous breakout zone ($11.00)
• Nearest Resistance: $12.24 (intraday high), then psychological $12.50
• Major Resistance: $13.56 (recent swing high on July 28)

9. Bollinger Bands

• Last two days: Price retraced from upper band extension (>3 Std. Dev.), now riding just above upper-mid band. This hints at volatility contraction and pressure building for next move.

10. Fibonacci Retracement

• From swing low ($8.85) to high ($13.56):
  • 23.6%: ~$12.50
  • 38.2%: ~$11.74
  • 50%: ~$11.20
• Price currently oscillates near the 38.2% retrace—typical for strong uptrends during healthy corrections.

11. Institutional Flow & Event Context

• Enormous gap is almost always news-related (earnings, acquisition, strategic development, etc.). Huge volume suggests real, sustained institutional interest—not retail pump.
• No collapse post-gap: Indicates legitimacy of positive catalyst; well-absorbed, not simple euphoria.

12. Volatility Indicators (ATR, VWAP)

• ATR (Average True Range): Currently extremely high, likely $0.40–$0.60 per day. Implies larger swings likely to persist short-term.
• VWAP (July 30 session): Estimated $12.03—price oscillates slightly below this. Crucial to monitor for reversal or continuation.

13. Short Interest & Sentiment

• Gap moves often lead to short squeezes. If float is low or short % is high, further upside likely as shorts capitulate. (Check latest float data for further confirmation.)
• No dump after initial gap supports bullish thesis.

14. Market Psychology & Order Flow

• Consolidation after gap attracts new bulls, not just profit-takers.
• Strong defense above $11.90: Supports higher base-building scenario for another run.

15. Synthesis & Price Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

• Given the digestion at current levels, flag/pennant structure, robust support near $11.75–$11.90, and absence of aggressive sell-offs, probability is high for another push toward upper resistance in short-term.
• If $12.20–$12.25 is breached with volume, next leg up toward $12.50–$13 is highly probable.
• Downside risk is limited while $11.75 holds. If $11.75 fails, pullback to $11.00–$11.20 is possible, but less likely barring fresh negative news.

16. Optimal Entry & Exit (Position Management)

• Buy Zone: Optimal entry is just above key support ($11.95–$12.05) to manage risk against $11.75–$11.80 stop region.
• Profit Target: Next resistance at $12.50–$13.00. Conservative traders may exit at $12.50; aggressive traders can ride to $13.00 if momentum follows through.

Final Conclusion

• Bias: Bullish continuation pattern following digestion post-breakout.
• Trade Plan: Buy on consolidation dip toward $12.00, stop just below $11.75, with target at $12.50–$13.00 in coming 24 hours barring sudden reversal signals. Only consider selling/short if price fails and closes under $11.75 with heavy volume.

Decision: Buy (Long Position)

Open Price: $12.00 Close Price: $12.50 (conservative), up to $13.00 (aggressive, trail stop after $12.50 breach).