CRBU: Oversold Into Support — Positioning for a Tactical Bounce to 2.22

Summary view

• Ticker: CRBU (Caribou Biosciences)
• Current price: $2.09 (as of 2025-11-09)
• Horizon: next 24 hours (next trading session)
• Bias: Short-term mean-reversion bounce within a broader, still-bearish momentum regime

1. Price action and structure (top-down)

• July–Aug: Base-building 1.65–2.10, then a steady climb into Oct.
• Oct run: Persistent advance to 2.8–2.97 area, then roll-over late Oct.
• Nov 3 event day: Massive gap up (O=3.40, H=3.54) and full fade to 2.43 on extreme volume (68.35M). This is a classic blow-off/gap-and-fade distribution day indicating heavy supply above.
• Post-event: Step-down drift: 11/4 2.17, 11/5 2.19, 11/6 2.14, 11/7 2.09. The cadence is controlled selling into a forming shelf around 2.05–2.10.
• Intraday character: Ranges compressed versus the event day; sellers remain, but momentum decelerates near 2.05–2.10 support.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~2.46. Price is well below the 20-SMA, reflecting short-term downtrend and statistical stretch.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~2.15–2.20. Price is now slightly below or near the 50-SMA, a battleground zone; reclaiming it would be the first constructive step for bulls.
• 200-day SMA (rough): likely ~2.05–2.20 given months of 1.7–2.8 tape; price hovers at/just below this long-term equilibrium. Sitting on/near the 200-day often invites mean-reversion attempts.
• Read-through: Multi-timeframe trend is mixed-to-bearish (below 20-SMA; flirting with 50/200). That usually caps rallies, but proximity to long-term average increases odds of short, tradable bounces.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (approx, Wilder style estimate): near the mid-teens (~14–18). That is deeply oversold and rare; typically invites at least a reflexive bounce, especially when near structural support.
• Stochastic(14): Close is at/near the 14-day low, so %K ~0–5%. Oversold and prone to a snap-back if sellers pause.
• MACD (qualitative): Under the signal and negative since late Oct; histogram likely still negative but momentum of downside appears to be slowing into 2.05–2.10. This supports a near-term bounce within a bearish regime.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~2.46; lower band estimated ~2.06–2.08. Price is hugging the lower band (~2.09). Touching/pressing the lower band for several sessions elevates mean-reversion odds to the mid-band direction, though full reversion to the 20-SMA in one day is unlikely; partial reversion toward 2.16–2.22 is reasonable.
• ATR(14) (approx): Elevated post-event; daily true range ~0.16–0.25 most recently. A 24-hour swing of 7–12% is plausible without fresh news.

5. Volume, flow, and distribution

• 11/03 volume climax (68M) with a bearish close is classic supply overhang. Subsequent volumes (5.15M, 2.12M, 1.85M, 2.92M) remain above pre-event averages but are trending down. This says: supply unloaded, then residual distribution fading; a bounce can occur as sell pressure abates.
• OBV/Accum-Distribution (qualitative): Rolled over after 10/21 and emphatically on 11/03; still not repaired. Any bounce likely meets supply into 2.20–2.35.

6. Support and resistance map (market structure)

• Immediate support: 2.05–2.10 shelf (multiple touches and alignment with lower Bollinger band). Below: 1.98–2.00 (78.6% retracement zone, round number magnet) and then 1.87–1.90 (Sept base).
• Near overhead resistance: 2.17–2.20 (recent post-event pivots), 2.24–2.26 (11/6 intraday highs), 2.30–2.37 (late-Oct congestion), stronger at 2.45–2.50 and 2.80–2.85.
• Anchored VWAP from 11/03 (qualitative inference): Likely well above spot, acting as a gravity cap on rallies; reinforces supply between ~2.30–2.60.

7. Fibonacci and confluence

• Swing low (9/19 ~1.69) to swing high (10/21 ~2.97):
  • 61.8% retrace: ~2.18.
  • 78.6% retrace: ~1.96.
• Price sits between 61.8% and 78.6%, hugging the lower band and near long-term averages. Confluence of: 61.8% pivot above (resistance) and lower band/support below suggests a ping back toward ~2.18 on a no-news day.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud likely overhead near 2.30–2.45. This is a bearish structure; however, Tenkan is likely flat-to-down and not far overhead, allowing a test toward 2.16–2.22 on mean reversion.

9. Candlesticks and patterns

• 11/03: Long upper wick, wide-range bearish candle (gap-and-fade) implies supply overhead.
• 11/4–11/7: Sequence of small-bodied down closes approaching a level (2.05–2.10) without expanding range = selling pressure losing intensity; potential for a short-term reversal bar next.
• A bullish reversal trigger would be a green candle reclaiming 2.12–2.15 early.

10. Statistical stretch and Z-score

• 20-day mean ~2.46; rough daily sigma ~0.20.
• Z-score: (2.09 – 2.46) / 0.20 ≈ -1.85. That’s a 2-sigma downside stretch area, consistent with short-term bounces absent fresh negative catalysts.

11. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Mean-reversion bounce from 2.05–2.10 toward 2.16–2.22, stalling below 2.26. Close likely 2.14–2.20.
• Bear extension (25%): Early push fails; break of 2.05 triggers stops to 1.98–2.02. Rebound into close; finish 2.00–2.06.
• Sharp recovery (20%): Strong early breadth, reclaim 2.20–2.26, squeeze to 2.28–2.32; fade late. This requires broader market tailwind or positive headline.

12. Trade plan logic (short-term)

• Edge: Oversold oscillators + price at lower Bollinger + multi-session selling fatigue near support = favorable risk-reward for a tactical long into first resistance.
• Invalidation: A decisive break and 30–60 min hold below 2.00 negates the bounce thesis and opens 1.87–1.90.
• Execution preference: Buy-the-dip with a resting limit near 2.06–2.08, or momentum confirmation on reclaim of 2.12 with volume.

13. Risk management guideposts (informational)

• Suggested stop (not part of the required output fields): ~1.98 (below round number and 78.6% fib), implying R multiple ≈ (Target 2.22 – Entry 2.07) / (Entry 2.07 – Stop 1.98) ≈ 0.15 / 0.09 ≈ 1.7R.
• If price gaps >2% above entry premarket, prefer waiting for a pullback toward 2.10–2.12 rather than chasing.

Conclusion and 24-hour call

• Expect a modest bounce toward 2.16–2.22, with heavy supply into 2.20–2.26 capping the move. Tactical long favored; broader trend still fragile.