Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Chevron Corporation (CVX)

1. Trend & Market Context

• Long-term Trend: From January to April 2025, CVX shows a clear downtrend, dropping from $161 to lows around $134 in mid-April. This features multiple lower highs and lower lows with pronounced sell-offs in early April, culminating in a steep drop to ~$134.
• Recent Trend: Post-mid-April, after touching $134, CVX attempted recovery, reaching $143, but subsequently retraced and has fluctuated mainly between $135–$143 since late April. As of the latest data, it’s trading at $137.27, slightly above its recent micro support.
• Short-term (Intraday): Most recent hourly data (May 20–21) shows extremely tight range-bound action between $137.10–$138.50, indicating indecision and waning momentum.

2. Support & Resistance Analysis

• Major Support Zones:
  • $134.00–$135.00 (multiple bounces in April, previous low region)
  • $137.00 (recent intraday bounce and frequent last-hour testing)
• Resistance Levels:
  • $138.50–$139.30 (recent intraday peaks, coinciding with late April minor highs)
  • $141.60–$142.35 (weekly swing highs)

3. Moving Averages

• 50-Day SMA: Rapidly declining, recently around $140–$141 range, which the price is trading below — confirms bearish bias.
• 200-Day SMA: Likely around $150+ (estimated by prior months), affirming a broader downtrend.
• Shorter MA (20/10): Price chopping around/potentially just below short MAs, showing inability to break to upside, a sign of continued pressure.

4. Volume Profile

• Volume Clusters:
  • High-volume sell-off days in early April ($143 → $134 zone) highlight institutional exodus.
  • Recent days exhibit diminishing volume with brief upticks on minor failed rallies ($138.5, $139 range) — suggests rallies are sold into.
• No surge in demand at current support, implying lack of strong buying appetite despite price stability.

5. Momentum Oscillators

• Relative Strength Index (RSI):
  • While not given numerically, the multi-week move from oversold ($134) to current muted range without significant bounce hints at RSI staying below 50 (bearish zone), with no bullish divergence.
• MACD:
  • Daily MACD likely negative; histogram shrinking, showing weak upward attempts are fizzling, and possibility of renewed crossover to the downside.

6. Chart Patterns

• Falling Wedge?: While the April sell-off could suggest a wedge, there’s no aggressive reversal pattern — post-bounce action is muted and lacks follow-through.
• Descending Channel: The price maintains a series of lower highs and lower lows; no clear breakout.
• Accumulation: No evidence of significant accumulation at current range. Intra-hour price repeatedly tests lower end of $137 but fails to rally.

7. Volatility Analysis

• ATR (Average True Range): Has compressed substantially in the last week, with intraday swings narrowing — often a precursor to a volatility expansion, likely in the direction of the prevailing trend (still bearish).

8. Order Flow & Price Action

• Order Structure:
  • Each rally attempt above $138.50 is sold into.
  • Intraday action has faded sharply from $138.88 early May 20 to $137.88 as of May 21.
• Lack of Bids: No sustained buying despite proximity to support. Fails at key resistance levels ($138.5/$139.3). Lower highs and tight close ranges persist.

9. Statistical & Quantitative Observations

• Mean Reversion: No strong evidence; price remains below multi-week means.
• Trend Continuation Probability: Given the lack of reversal signals, current pattern favors continuation down or breakdown from current support.

10. Risk Management & Trade Probability

• Downside risk is significant if $137 support breaks, as $135 and ultimately $134 look exposed. Upside seems capped at $138.50–$139 in absence of new buyers.
• Market Sentiment: Weak — sectorally, energy stocks have been under pressure with recent volume confirming bearish sentiment.

Synthesis/Consensus:

CVX has staged a mild attempt at bottoming but failed to garner institutional support. Price repeatedly tests low $137s after weak rallies to $138.5–$139. The cluster of failed upswings, tight range, and low volume mean downside is more probable, especially if $137 is lost. The risk/reward on the short side is favorable with stops above $138.50 and targets to $135 and potentially $134 based on historical support.

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Pro Trading Techniques Used:

• Multi-timeframe trend analysis
• Horizontal support/resistance mapping
• Volume & price action analysis
• Moving averages (SMA, EMA contextual usage)
• Momentum oscillators (RSI/MACD) qualitative read
• Chart and price action pattern recognition
• ATR/volatility contraction signals
• Risk/reward calculation
• Sentiment overlay

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Predicted action for next 24 hours: Weak, risk tilted lower. Breakdown below $137 would open the way for a retest of $135, with possible extension to April’s low $134. Buyers appear absent, and institutional supply remains. Expect bears to remain in control unless $139 is reclaimed on strong volume.