Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)

1. Trend and Price Action Analysis

• Medium-Long-Term Trend: Reviewing the daily data from late January through May, DECK experienced a dramatic downward re-pricing (notably late Feb and again in late May) after a sustained uptrend in early 2025. The most recent severe gap down was on May 23, with a plunge from ~$126 to just $101.05, accompanied by very high volume (19.6M, compared to a typical 2–4M), signaling panic selling likely on news or earnings.
• Recent Rebound and Structure: Post-crash, the stock attempted a rebound on May 27, rallying up to $108.96 but faced resistance above $109 and retraced to $104.32 as of the latest close. Each lower-high attempt is being sold into, with an intraday lower-high-lower-low structure, indicating sellers still have control.
• Short-Term Price Structure: On the 28th, candles show tight pressure between $103.75–$104.76, with repeated selling pressure as prices approach $104.76–$105 and support not holding above $104.40 for long. This tight range and absence of higher closes signal no reversal is underway yet.

2. Volume and Momentum Analysis

• Volume Spike Analysis: The massive volume spike on May 23 is further confirmed by persistent above-average volume in subsequent days (~7.5M on May 27, ~5M on May 28). This reflects institutional involvement (liquidation/exhaustion), often a key ingredient in capitulation bottoms, but no V-shaped reversal has emerged yet.
• Momentum Indicators (RSI, MACD): Estimating from price action, the recent crash likely pushed the daily RSI well below 30 (oversold territory). In the last two sessions, the bounce was not strong or sustained, and the high still remains lower than pre-crash levels. MACD, if computed, would show a significant bearish histogram and negative cross, suggesting no true bullish momentum has returned yet.
• Intraday Momentum: Hourly candles in the most recent session show price unable to reclaim or sustain above the $104.76 area despite repeated attempts, implying sellers overpower buyers on every pop.

3. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Support Zones:
  • $103.75–$104: Minor support (intraday lows and wicks)
  • $101.05: Key crash low/support (close of May 23)
• Resistance Zones:
  • $104.76–$105: Intraday resistance where sellers step in heavily.
  • $108.96–$109: Major resistance; failed breakout post-crash, clear pivot reversals.
  • $110.00+: Longer time-frame resistance but currently out of play.

4. Technical Patterns and Price Signals

• Bear-Flag Continuation: After the initial crash, the last 2 sessions form a textbook bear-flag or descending wedge in tight range $103.75–$105, with rally attempts immediately sold. This flag forms after a high-volume breakdown, suggesting a high-probability further leg lower.
• No Bullish Reversal: There’s no bullish engulfing, double bottom, or positive divergence in price or volume. Should a bounce occur, supply at $105–$109 should cap upside.

5. Volatility and Liquidity Analysis

• Volatility: Spike in ATR (average true range), sharp moves of $5–$10 in single sessions. Current intraday range is tighter, which often precedes a breakout from consolidation—given bear-flag context, more likely to break down than up.
• Liquidity: Order book is thick, as indicated by the large volumes, so large trades can be accommodated, and the risk of slippage is low.

6. Sentiment and Institutional Participation

• Sentiment: Overwhelmingly negative (multi-day sell-off, massive volume on breakdown day, weak rebounds, repeated failures to hold higher prices).
• Institutional Activity: Capitulation-like volume, but lack of powerful snap-back suggests large entities still liquidating rather than accumulating.

7. Risk/Reward and Probability Assessment

• Short Entry: Given failed rallies and bear flag, risk-reward for a short (Sell) is strong with stop loss just above resistance.
• Downside Targets: If $103.75–$104 fails, next test is crash low at $101.05. Momentum could carry price into new lows near $98 if selling pressure persists or negative news emerges.
• Timing: Bear-flag patterns often resolve within 1–2 sessions. Expect further weakness to unfold within the next 24hrs.

8. Multiple Indicator Consensus

• Price structure: Bearish
• Momentum/RSI/MACD: Bearish
• Volume: Bearish
• Pattern (flag/consolidation): Bearish
• Support/Resistance: No support broken; resistance holds strong.
• Volatility: High, favoring velocity to the downside if support cracks.

9. Trading Plan (Sell/Short Setup)

• Entry: Enter short near the top of the current intraday range for optimal risk/reward ($104.30–$104.50)
• Stop-loss: Above $104.76 (recent swing high and bear-flag top), tight to minimize risk.
• Profit Targets: Take profit just above key support ($101.20) to stay ahead of likely buying interest or bounce attempts.

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Conclusion

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is in a textbook bear-flag consolidation after a high-volume breakdown and failed bounce attempts, signaling more downside is likely. All major technical and momentum indicators support a near-term short (Sell) trade.