DECK: Gap-Reclaim Rally Poised to Probe 104–106 — Buy the 102s, Aim for 105+

Step-by-step technical blueprint (daily timeframe unless noted)

1. Market structure and trend diagnostics

• Big picture (Sep → Dec): DECK sold off sharply from the 120s in early September to a capitulation/earnings gap-down on Oct 24 (~102.54 prior close → 88.5 open) and ultimately bottomed near ~80.9 (Oct 30). Since late November, price formed a constructive base in the low–mid 80s and advanced steadily into December.
• Intermediate-term (late Nov → mid Dec): Impulsive advance to 105.84 (Dec 16 high), signaling a trend change off the October lows. The pullback into Dec 19 (99.47) was a shallow retracement relative to the rally — classic “bullish digestion.”
• Short-term (last 5–7 sessions): Higher lows from 99.47 (Dec 19) → 100.68 (Dec 23) → 100.95 (Dec 24) → 103.09 (Dec 26 close). Price reclaimed the Oct 23 pre-gap close (102.54), a key psychological and technical level. That gap-reclaim is often followed by continuation into the next supply shelf (104–106).

2. Supply/demand map (supports and resistances)

• Immediate support: 102.5–102.9 (pre-gap close 102.54 + Friday’s breakout zone), 101.9 (Dec 22 close), 100.7–101.0 (Dec 23–24 lows), psychological 100.0, and deeper 99.5 (Dec 19 low).
• Near-term resistance: 104.5–105.9 (Dec 18 high 104.55, Dec 16 high 105.84), then 107.5–109.2 (Fibonacci extensions + prior supply). Above 105.9, a vacuum/volume pocket could allow a fast test of 107–108 if momentum expands.

3. Moving averages (trend gauges)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 99.3 (estimated from the last 20 closes). Price at 103.09 is above the 20-SMA, signaling positive short-term trend.
• 50-day SMA (approx): rising into the mid-to-high 90s after the Nov/Dec recovery. Price > 50-SMA = bullish intermediate bias.
• 200-day SMA (approx): near 102–104 given the blend of Sep strength and Oct/Nov weakness. Price is hovering at/above this band, a pivotal “line in the sand.” Sustained closes above the 200-DMA tend to re-attract institutional flows.
• Short EMA alignment (5/8/13 EMAs): likely stacked bullishly after Friday’s thrust, consistent with higher lows since Dec 19.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Recovered from the October bearish regime to a bullish range; recent action suggests RSI in the mid-to-high 50s/low 60s — not overbought, leaving room for an upside push toward 105–106 before risk of momentum cooling.
• Stochastic %K/%D: Rotating up from mid levels, likely in the 60–80 zone; upside momentum is building but not yet extreme.
• MACD: Daily MACD histogram has been improving since the Dec 19 low; signal-line crossover likely turned positive around Dec 23–24. Rising histogram supports a short-term bullish impulse.

5. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) (est.): ~2.2–2.8, consistent with recent true ranges. Expected next-session range roughly 2–3 points. A 24-hour path of 101.5–105.5 is reasonable.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Center line near ~99.3; upper band estimated ~104.8–105.3; lower band ~93–94. Price closed near the upper band Friday, suggesting strength with potential for a controlled walk-up the band if volume expands.
• Keltner Channels / Squeeze context: Recent holiday sessions compressed volume and range. A post-holiday re-liquification can expand realized volatility; bullish bias favors upside expansion first.

6. Volume and breadth read

• Volume trend: Oct 24’s 21M share shock (capitulation/earnings) established a long-term reference point. December’s advance has been on improving but still modest volume, with the break back above 102.5 on light holiday tape (Dec 26). Light-volume breakouts can be faded intraday, but they often get validated on the first full-volume session post-holiday if price accepts above the breakout level.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since the Dec 19 low, confirming accumulation into the 100–102 base.
• Volume-by-price: A notable high-volume node built between ~99–102 during mid-December consolidation. That area should act as a support shelf on pullbacks (value acceptance). Above 103, the 104–106 zone shows prior rejection wicks but thinner volume, which can allow swift tests if buyers press.

7. Gaps, reclaim levels, and market structure

• The Oct 24 earnings gap (102.54 close → 88.50 open) has been fully reclaimed on a closing basis. Closing back above a major gap’s origin often sets a new phase where prior sellers are trapped; subsequent tests of 104–106 become more likely as trapped supply is worked through.
• Friday’s candle: Strong close near the high (quasi-marubozu) into resistance. That typically yields either (a) a brief pullback to retest 102.5–102.9 before resuming higher, or (b) a direct gap/drive into 104.5–105.5 on open if broader tape is firm.

8. Fibonacci mapping (two swings)

• Major swing: 80.89 (Oct 30) → 105.84 (Dec 16). Pullback low 99.47 held above 38.2% (~96.6), a bullishly shallow retracement, keeping the primary upswing intact.
• Minor swing: 99.47 (Dec 19) → 105.84 (Dec 16 high). The pullback to ~101–102 aligned with the 61.8%–78.6% zone, then price turned higher — classic “buy the dip in trend.”
• Extensions from 99.47→105.84: 1.272 ≈ 107.6, 1.618 ≈ 109.1. While ambitious for one session, these frame the next upside magnets if 105.8–106 clears on volume.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative, daily)

• Tenkan-sen (9) > Kijun-sen (26) after the late-December turn; price above both lines and likely above/at the cloud. Span A rising above Span B implies an emerging bullish regime. Pullbacks to the Tenkan (~101.5–102.5 area by estimation) favor dip-buys if the trend is intact.

10. Donchian channels and breakout logic

• 20-day Donchian high = 105.84 (Dec 16); 20-day low ≈ 88.03 (Nov 28). Price is in the upper quartile of this range, with the next actionable breakout trigger on a decisive push >105.9. A pre-breakout coil above 102.5 improves odds of a run at that level.

11. Pattern recognition

• Post-earnings gap reclaim + higher low base + bullish continuation candles = constructive. The last three sessions carved a tight sequence of higher closes with contracting intraday volatility — often a prelude to a range expansion day.

12. Relative strength and seasonality context (qualitative)

• Relative strength improved through December as discretionary peers chopped. Footwear/apparel often benefits from strong holiday sell-through; while not a trading signal by itself, it aligns with the technicals for near-term follow-through.

13. Scenario planning for the next 24 hours

• Base case (probability ~62%): Early dip to 102.5–102.9 retests the breakout shelf; buyers step in, pushing toward 104.5–105.5. Intraday momentum stalls near 105–105.5 on first touch, but closes are likely >103 if the shelf holds.
• Bullish extension (~25%): If opening drive clears 104.6 quickly with volume, a liquidity run into 105.8 is feasible; a strong tape could tag 106.2 intra-session. Close near highs if breadth is supportive.
• Bearish alternate (~13%): Failure to hold 101.9 leads to a flush into 100.5–100.0. Only a daily close <99.5 would materially dent the bullish structure; probability of that in the next 24h appears low given current momentum.

14. Confluence snapshot

• Above 20/50/200-day moving averages (bullish alignment) ✔
• Reclaimed critical gap origin (102.54) ✔
• Momentum oscillators turning up without overbought readings ✔
• Price pressing upper Bollinger band while ATR allows a 1.5–2.5% day ✔
• Thick volume node support at 100–102 ✔
• Nearby resistance 104.5–105.9; actionable on dips or breakout ✔

15. Risk framing and execution edge

• Optimal entry plan for risk/reward within 1 session: Buy the first controlled pullback into 102.5–102.9 (prior breakout and Tenkan/Kijun vicinity), using 101.7–101.9 as a risk pivot. Target initial scale/exit near 105.0–105.5 where supply sits. R:R roughly 1:2 to 1:2.5 for the session if executed on the dip.

Outlook and call

• Bias: Bullish continuation into 104.5–105.5 over the next 24 hours, with an expectation of an early test/pullback to 102s that holds. Break-and-go above 104.6 accelerates the path to 105.8.
• Decision: Buy on dip. If no dip, a momentum add/secondary plan is to buy a confirmed breakout above 104.6 with the same 105.5 target for a tighter, faster trade.