Exhaustive Technical Analysis of Diginex Limited (DGNX)

1. Trend Identification

Long-Term Trend (Daily)

• Massive Volatility: Since January, DGNX exhibits extreme parabolic rises and deep pullbacks. In late January, the price surged from $4-5 to highs over $75 within weeks—this indicates a micro-cap/meme-like price action, likely driven by speculation more than fundamentals.
• Recent Action: From April 14 through mid-May, after an overshoot to $155 (4/15), price has dropped with lower highs and lower lows, currently at $89.92. Major peaks: $150 (4/16), $138 (4/15), with successive lower peaks: $121 (4/16), $115, $104, $103, $101, $96, $94, $92, $90. This is structurally a confirmed downtrend from the highs.

Short-Term Trend (Intraday/Hourly)

• Price encountered a mild bounce post plunge (5/7, low $55), retracing above $90, but could not establish a new high. Recent intraday highs fail quick: e.g., $95 (5/16 13:30), immediate drop to $88.95 by 15:30. Last traded: $89.92.
• Intraday Candle Structure: Volatility persists—in last sessions, swings from $87.5–$95, but with closing pressure toward lower end in most candles.

2. Volume Analysis

• Climax & Exhaustion: The volume climax was during the blow-off move to $155. Afterward, volume is consistently lower, except for some spikes on local tops. This suggests speculative interest has waned.
• Recent Volume: The 5/16 session: Recent trades show volume spiking on red candles (higher selling pressure). Intraday, large volume on downward candles e.g., 5/16 13:30 (17643 shares) saw price retreat from $95->90.5.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

Major Resistance:

• $94–$96: Prior breakdown support and frequent reversals at these levels (4/29, 5/1, 5/15 intraday peak).
• Psychological $100: Former support turned resistance; never reclaimed.

Major Support:

• $86–$88: Multiple intraday and daily closes/bounces here (5/15, 5/16 intraday low $87.75–$88).
• $83–$84: Last significant support ($84.85 close on 5/5).
• $76–$77: Key retracement zone after prior vertical run-ups.

4. Chart Pattern Recognition

• Descending Triangle (April–May): Price is compressing against horizontal support ($87-$88) while forming lower highs—classic bearish continuation pattern.
• Failure Swing: Each bounce is smaller with increased selling on pops—bearish distribution.

5. Technical Indicators

Moving Averages (Approximation):

• Short-Term MA (e.g., 10-day): Sloping down, with price rarely holding above.
• Longer-Term MA (20/50-day): Most likely above current price, confirming moving into bearish structure.

RSI (Estimated):

• Recent persistent downward pressure after parabolic rise. With the price rebounding from oversold ($55) to over $90, but failing at resistance, likely RSI is now neutral-to-low (40–50), with risk of another breakdown on heavy selling.

MACD (Estimated):

• Bearish momentum given the series of lower highs and sharp, impulsive declines. MACD likely below signal or crossing downward, confirming price weakness.

ATR (Volatility):

• Remains extremely elevated; $10–$20 daily swings are normal, suggesting a higher risk for both bulls and bears.

6. Candlestick/Price Action Analysis

• Long Upper Wicks: Recent hourly/daily candles with long upper wicks at $94–$95 (failed rallies), signaling repeated rejection.
• Bearish Engulfing: On 5/15 and intraday sequences, red candles swallowed prior green candle bodies—further confirming selling dominance.

7. Order Flow (Market Psychology)

• Distribution Phase: Whale exit/crowd distribution likely underway. Big green moves on low volume are sold immediately; rallies are weak and lack follow-through.
• No Bullish Divergence: Price unable to base or print higher lows on increasing volume. Each support test grows weaker.

8. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis

• From $155 high to $55 low: 23.6% at ~$79, 38.2% at ~$96, 50% at $105. Current inability to regain $94-96 area (the 38.2% fib) confirms bears' grip; next logical test is to revisit the 23.6% retracement zone at $79 and possibly lower.

9. Risk—Reward Assessment

• Bearish Bias: Short setups are more favorable. Multiple failed rallies, strong resistance above, no evidence of buyers returning, price below all recent VWAP levels.
• Nearby Stop Placement: Above $96 (last failed bounce), with targets toward $77, offering high reward/risk.

---

Summary & Probability Estimate

• Bearish case: Extremely likely in coming sessions. Structure/volume/price action, all point to further downside.
• Short-Term Target: $77, with possible extensions to $70 if selling accelerates.
• Invalidation: Only on a daily close above $97 would bearish thesis be voided. Until then, rallies are to be sold.

Conclusion: DGNX is in a distribution phase, confirmed by multiple technical factors. Best play is SHORT, selling into bounces toward major resistance levels, targeting a new down move toward historical support. High volatility demands precision in entries/exits. Tight stops are recommended due to sharp ranges.

---

Action Plan:

• Open Short sell as price retests $92–$94 zone (upper end of current range, prior breakdown level).
• Target $77 and partial $83 for profit-taking.
• Stop strictly at $97 (above consolidation highs and downward sloping resistance).