Detailed Technical Analysis for Ford Motor Company (F)

1. Price Action & Trend Analysis

The provided daily data, spanning from March to July 2025, reveals several important features:

• Major Uptrend Since May: After consolidating between $9.50 and $10.50 from mid-March to early June, Ford broke out from this range toward the end of June. The stock closed above $10.85 on June 30th and then surged to $11.35 on July 1st, with strong follow-through—closing at $11.77 on July 2nd.
• Momentum Confirmed: The breakout above $10.85 was accompanied by a clear uptick in volume (122M-140M vs. ~70M-90M prior), indicating institutional participation—a classical bullish confirmation.
• Most Recent Prices: Since July 2nd, price action stabilized, holding in the $11.60-$11.96 range, with the latest closes oscillating tightly between $11.77 and $11.91. The last close is $11.78.

2. Support & Resistance Analysis

• Current major support: The prior resistance near $10.85, now acts as a robust support following the breakout. More immediate support lies at $11.60, which was tested and held on July 7th.
• Immediate resistance: The high at $11.96 (July 3) is the next near-term hurdle.
• Major resistance above: Round number psychological levels at $12.00, followed by Fibonacci extension targets.

3. Volume Analysis (OBV)

• Rising On-balance volume (OBV): Price surges in late June and early July are confirmed by rising volume, suggesting accumulation.
• Volume spikes on breakout days (June 27, July 1): Suggest broad market participation in the move higher, bolstering sustainability.

4. Moving Averages

• 50-Day SMA: Estimated near $10.35 (weighted by May/June prices), now well below current price—bullish separation.
• 20-Day EMA: Rising, likely around $11.30—providing dynamic support.
• Price above all major moving averages: Typical of strong uptrends.

5. Momentum Indicators (RSI & MACD estimates)

• 14-day RSI: Based on the speed of this recent upmove, RSI is likely in the 70-74 range. This denotes overbought conditions, but strong trends can remain overbought for extended periods.
• MACD: Bullish crossover occurred in late June. There is a wide positive separation (fast line well above slow and baseline), but histogram likely shows some slowing momentum in July as price consolidates after the thrust.
• Stochastic: High, potentially starting to roll over, consistent with consolidation after an extended move.

6. Chart Patterns

• Cup & Handle Base, Breakout:
  • From mid-March through June 21, a rounding bottom (cup) was formed. The mild pullback June 25–26 and surge above $10.85 ended the 'handle'—a classic bullish breakout pattern.
  • Price target from the pattern: $10.85 (breakout) - $9.00 (base) = $1.85, added to $10.85 = $12.70. The current advance is still below full technical target.
• Recent Flag/Consolidation:
  • Descending to lateral price action from $11.96 (July 3), forming a mini-bull flag—often a pause before further move up.

7. Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions

Assuming $9.00 as a swing low (April), and $11.96 (recent high):

• 38.2% retracement: $10.78 (well below current, acting as strong support)
• Fibonacci extension (100%): $12.92 ⇒ Target for next leg higher

8. Volatility Analysis (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR (Average True Range): Has expanded from ~$0.15 in May to ~$0.40 in July—reflecting growing volatility and strong price movement.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is hugging the upper band and consolidating within a tight range, a setup that often precedes a volatility expansion (explosive move).

9. Sentiment, Risk-Reward & Tape Reading

• Tape Reading: Recent sessions with closing prices near intraday highs suggest persistent demand.
• Market Sentiment: No bearish engulfing, shooting star, or distribution candles detected; all suggest continued bullish bias.
• Risk-Reward Profile: Opening a position above a major breakout base, with little overhead resistance below $12.00, offers attractive upside with stop placement just below $11.60.

10. Synthesis and 24h Prediction

Combined signals remain bullish:

• All trend, volume, and momentum indicators corroborate ongoing uptrend.
• Short-term overbought readings merit caution, but given the flag consolidation and lack of bear signals, a further upside move toward $12.20-$12.30 over next 24 hours is likely.
• Pattern and extension analysis suggest ultimate targets for this run could be in the $12.60–$12.90 zone, but $12.20-$12.30 is realistic for a 1-day move.
• Risk of short-term shakeout exists, but major support at $11.60 limits downside.

Conclusion: Strong Long (Buy) Bias

• Action: Buy on small pullback near $11.75.
• Target: Sell/Take profit at $12.25 (conservative; aligns with upper resistance and measured move targets).
• Stop loss: Below $11.59 (well below recent support/flag lows; not part of this scenario but essential for actual trades).

Ford’s technical configuration, momentum, and accumulation pattern indicate further upside potential in the next trading day.