FCX Shock Drop, Inside Day Coil: Positioning for a 24‑Hour Snapback to 37

Executive summary

• Context: FCX suffered a shock drawdown midweek (Sep 24–25) with a massive breakaway gap and capitulation-volume sells, then printed an inside day on Sep 26 and closed slightly green at 35.75. This is classic post-gap stabilization after a selling climax.
• 24h outlook: Probability favors a reflex/mean-reversion bounce early next session into the 36.8–37.3 resistance cluster, provided 35.15 holds. Optimal plan is to buy a minor pullback near 35.6–35.7 or a momentum break above 36.32 (inside-day high) with a take-profit before the first strong supply band.
• Decision: Buy (Long). Open ~35.60. Target 37.20 in the next 24 hours. Risk control (not required but recommended): stop ~34.98.

1. Price action and structure

• Regime shift: Price transitioned from a multi-month 43–47 range to a markdown phase via a large bearish breakaway gap on Sep 24 (close 37.67 from 45.36 prior day), followed by continuation on Sep 25 to 35.34 and an inside day on Sep 26 (H 36.31, L 35.29, C 35.75).
• Support: 35.15 (Sep 25 low) is the immediate pivot; below that, psychological 35.00, then air pockets toward 34s due to lack of recent structure.
• Resistance: 36.31 (inside-day high), 37.56–37.70 (Fib 23.6% from 45.36→35.15 and Sep 24 close 37.67), 38.34 (Jul 30 intraday low), 39.05 (Fib 38.2%), 40.00 round.
• Pattern: Inside day after a sharp drop = volatility contraction; expect a range expansion soon. A break above 36.31 favors a rebound; a break below 35.15 risks a second leg down.

2. Volume/participation (Wyckoff lens)

• Selling climax traits: Sep 24 (91.3M) and Sep 25 (86.8M) were extreme volumes relative to prior weeks (typical 8–16M). Sep 26 volume dropped to 41.5M, signaling selling pressure abating and potential transition from Selling Climax (SC) to a Secondary Test (ST)/stabilization.
• Interpretation: After two distribution days, the reduced volume on a small green inside day fits a near-term exhaustion template, increasing odds of an AR (automatic rally) toward first overhead supply (≈37s).

3. Candlesticks

• Sep 24: Large wide-range bearish candle (gap-and-go) = momentum break.
• Sep 25: Long lower tail, close off lows = demand emergence near 35s.
• Sep 26: Inside day with green close = contraction and balance; a measured move often follows. Bullish trigger above 36.31; bearish trigger below 35.15.

4. Moving averages (trend and stretch)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 43.96 (est. from last 20 closes). Price is ~−8.2 below the 20-SMA, an unusually large deviation suggesting short-term mean-reversion potential.
• 50-/200-day SMAs (directionally): likely in the mid-40s/low-40s based on June–Sep tape; price sits well below them, confirming the intermediate trend is bearish, but the distance itself favors a reflex bounce.

5. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14): Likely sub-30 after the two-day plunge; the slight uptick on Sep 26 hints at early exit from oversold. This sets up a bounce toward the RSI 35–40 zone without invalidating the broader downtrend.
• Stochastics: Buried in oversold; a %K crossover above %D from a low level would confirm a short-term bounce (watch intraday Monday).
• MACD: Deeply negative; signal lagging. However, extreme negative MACD with price basing often precedes a momentum snapback.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14): Expanded materially post-gap, implying wider intraday ranges. Expect 1.5–2.0 point swings intraday.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Basis ≈ 43.96; with recent sigma expansion, lower band likely around ~36.0. Price closed slightly under/near the lower band on Sep 26, a common mean-reversion cue toward the band or mid-band drift (first step is tag back to/through the lower band on a bounce).

7. Fibonacci roadmap (swing Sep 23 close 45.36 → Sep 25 low 35.15)

• 23.6%: 37.56 — aligns with Sep 24 close (37.67); first magnet on bounce.
• 38.2%: 39.05 — secondary target if squeeze extends.
• 50%: 40.26 — ambitious for 24 hours; more feasible if a multi-day retrace ensues.
• Confluence: 37.5–37.7 has both Fib 23.6 and prior close supply; expect sellers.

8. Gaps and mean reversion

• Breakaway gap (Sep 24) remains open; quick full gap-fill is unlikely immediately, but partial fill into the lower 37s is statistically common after two sessions of stabilization.
• Inside-day mechanics: Playing the break is a high-probability tactic post-shock. Bias long given oversold context; tight invalidation if 35.15 fails.

9. Intraday pivots (derived from Sep 26 H/L/C = 36.31/35.29/35.75)

• Pivot P ≈ 35.78.
• R1 ≈ 36.28; R2 ≈ 36.80; R3 ≈ 37.30.
• S1 ≈ 35.26; S2 ≈ 34.76.
• Plan: First upside objective cluster sits at R2–R3 (36.8–37.3), which matches Fib 23.6% and anchored supply; that’s our 24h take-profit zone.

10. VWAP/anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• A VWAP anchored to the gap day (Sep 24) is likely sitting around the upper-36s to low-37s given the subsequent heavy-volume prints; this aligns with our 36.8–37.3 target band.

11. Ichimoku (trend pressure vs mean)

• Price is far below a likely elevated Kijun/Tenkan and the cloud, reflecting strong downtrend pressure, but the extreme distance from Kijun typically precedes snapback attempts. Expect resistance on any approach to 37–39 region.

12. DeMark/PSAR/Heikin-Ashi (directional aids)

• PSAR would still be above price (bearish), not flipped yet—consistent with using bounces to manage risk.
• Heikin-Ashi for Sep 26 would show a smaller body with reduced lower wick versus prior day, indicating decelerating downside momentum.

13. Statistical/behavioral notes

• Two-day crash followed by an inside day often yields a 1–3 day reflex higher barring new negative catalysts. First session typically tests the prior day’s high; failure there often reverts to the pivot before a second attempt.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Bullish (base case, ~60%): Early slight dip holds above 35.2–35.3; push through 36.31 triggers a run into 36.8–37.3; sellers reappear there. Close near 36.9 ±0.3.
• Bearish (alt, ~40%): Loss of 35.15 opens 34.8 (S2) and possibly a spike to 34.5 on stops; would invalidate the long plan. In that case, the break-down trade is favored, but our chosen plan is the bounce.

15. Trade plan for 24 hours

• Bias: Buy the dip/inside-day breakout.
• Entry preference: Limit near 35.60 (between prior pivot and S1) to capture a modest pullback; alternatively, momentum trigger above 36.32 (break of inside-day high). For the single-number requirement, we set an optimal open at 35.60.
• Take-profit: 37.20, just before the R3/Fib 23.6%/gap-close confluence where supply is likely.
• Risk guide (optional but prudent): Stop ~34.98 (below 35.00 and Sep 25 low buffer). R:R ≈ (37.20−35.60)/(35.60−34.98) ≈ 1.60/0.62 ≈ 2.6.

Conclusion

• The tape shows capitulation, contraction, and setup for a reflex rally. The technical confluence at 36.8–37.3 provides a logical 24h target. We choose Buy with an optimal open near 35.60 and a take-profit at 37.20.