FI on the Brink: Descending Triangle Coiled at 131 — Momentum Set to Crack Support

Overview and market context

• FI sold off sharply on 2025-07-23 with a high-volume gap down (29M shares) from the mid‑160s to the low‑140s, bottoming intraday near 128.22. Since then, price has ranged largely between 130–140 with a sequence of lower highs and multiple tests of the 131–132 shelf. This creates a descending triangle base with heavy overhead supply.
• Current price: 131.80 (2025-09-21). Friday 2025-09-19 closed near the lows (131.80) with an elevated volume spike (10.6M), coincident with OPEX/triple-witching, suggesting distribution into weakness.
• Immediate support zone: 131.4–131.0 (Sep 19/16 lows 131.39/130.76), then 128.22 (Jul 23 event low). Overhead resistance layers: 132.9, 134.3, 135.7, 136.8, 138.2, then 140.

Step-by-step technical analysis (multi-tool)

1. Price structure and trend

• Post-gap regime: lower highs (140.42 on Aug 20/21 → 138.18 on Aug 29 → 136.77 on Sep 3 → 135.70 on Sep 11 → 134.18 on Sep 17) versus flat-to-slightly-descending support 131–132. That’s a classic descending triangle with repeated base tests (Aug 7, Aug 11–12, Sep 10, Sep 15–19).
• Friday’s close near session lows, after an intraday lower high (133.37), signals continued seller control into the weekend. Bias: Bearish continuation with risk of base failure.

2. Moving averages (trend-following)

• 20D SMA ≈ 135.6 (est.), price is ~2.8% below: bearish, potential “walk down the band.”
• 50D SMA is likely in the mid‑140s (dragged higher by pre-gap prices) and trending down. 20<50<200 alignment and price < all MAs = bearish stack.
• Short-term MAs (5/10D) are declining and above price → momentum pressure remains down; rallies likely meet supply near 133–136.

3. RSI / Stochastics (momentum/overbought-oversold)

• RSI(14) estimated mid‑30s: bearish/weak, approaching oversold but not capitulative. In downtrends, RSI can stay sub‑50 and “kiss” 30 before further lows.
• Slow Stochastics likely sub‑30 with %K<%D; any bounce to mid-range is a sell-the-rip signal while below 50.

4. MACD (trend/momentum)

• MACD below zero with a modestly negative histogram: downside momentum persists. No bullish cross evident; any histogram contraction is mild and near support, often preceding either a weak bounce or a breakdown acceleration.

5. Bollinger Bands (volatility/mean reversion)

• With a 20D basis ~135.6, price ~131.8 sits near/under the lower band (approx −2σ). Two actionable reads:
  • “Walking the band” in a trend → continued grind lower is common.
  • Mean‑reversion probability rises, but generally requires a reversal candle; Friday did not provide one. Thus, bias is still a continuation poke below 131.

6. ATR and expected move (position sizing / 24h path)

• Recent ATR(14) approximates ~2.7–3.0. From 131.8, a 1×ATR move targets 128.8–129.1 to the downside or ~134.5–134.8 to the upside. Given trend and structure, downside test of 131→130.7→129 looks more probable within 1 session.

7. Volume/OBV and supply-demand

• OBV trajectory post-gap is down/sloping; rallies to 138–140 were on lighter volume, while selloffs carried heavier prints—classic distribution.
• Friday’s elevated volume with a close near the low suggests supply absorption at support; repeated probes of 131–132 increase the odds of a decisive break.

8. VWAP analysis (anchored)

• Anchored VWAP from the 7/23 gap day sits materially above current price (high‑130s), aligning with the 138–140 supply shelf. As long as price holds below that AVWAP, rallies are fadeable and the path of least resistance remains down.

9. Ichimoku

• Price is below the Kumo; Tenkan (≈9‑period) below Kijun (≈26‑period), both above price; Chikou below price and below cloud. This is a fully bearish configuration. Kijun resistance likely ~136; Tenkan ~134–135.

10. Parabolic SAR / ADX

• SAR dots likely overhead, indicating a persistent down move. ADX (trend strength) is likely >20 and rising as the triangle coils toward resolution, favoring continuation of the established direction (down).

11. Fibonacci mapping (impulse/targets)

• Swing A (8/21 high 140.42) → B (9/10 low 132.14) → C (9/11 rebound 135.70). 1.272 extension from C projects ~130.9; 1.618 ~129.0. These coincide with structural supports (130.76 pivot; 129 handle), reinforcing downside targets for a breakdown.

12. Pattern analytics

• Descending triangle: height ~140 to 132 = 8. Breakdown measure projects to ~124 longer-term. Near-term, the initial break often seeks the first extension cluster (129–130), then pauses.

13. Candle/price action

• Recent candles show lower highs and closes toward lows; no hammer/doji at the base. Lack of reversal signature argues against an immediate durable bounce.

14. Event/flow context

• Friday was options expiration with high volume. Post‑OPEX Mondays often see trend continuation once dealer hedges reset, especially when closing at support. If 131.4 breaks early, momentum accounts can press toward 130 and 129.

Synthesis and 24-hour outlook

• Base case (≈55%): Early break of 131.40 triggers momentum to 130.7, then 129.0–128.8 (1×ATR). Expect weak bounces to stall beneath 132.9–133.4.
• Alternate (≈30%): Early reflex bounce to 133.0–133.8 (Tenkan/5–10D MAs), then roll back; triangle intact, another test of 131 late day.
• Low‑probability squeeze (≈15%): A gap up through 134.3/135.0 runs stops toward 136.2–136.8; requires broad risk-on or catalyst.

Trading plan (short-term, tactical)

• Bias: Sell strength or sell breakdown, given bearish trend, triangle setup, and heavy overhead supply.
• Optimal trigger: Short on a break below 131.30 (under Friday’s 131.39 low) to capture momentum.
• Profit zone: 129.0 (Fib 1.618 ext / ATR target) with potential stretch to 128.8 if momentum expands.
• Risk management (for context): Consider a stop on sustained recapture above ~132.6–133.1 (back above breakdown and intraday VWAP), yielding ~1:1.5+ R:R to 129.0.

Conclusion

• The technical confluence (descending triangle, sub‑SMA stack, weak momentum, distribution volume, Fibonacci confluence) favors a downside continuation within the next 24 hours. The cleaner, higher‑probability setup is a short on breakdown rather than pre-emptive longs at support.

Prediction (next 24h)

• Probability-weighted path: Press through 131.3 → tag 130.7 pivot → extend into 129.2–128.8 before stabilizing. Any early bounce likely fades beneath 133.5.