Capitulation Hammer Sets Up a 24-Hour Relief Pop Toward 57 in Figma (FIG)

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Moderately bullish for a relief bounce toward 56–58, with 52.7–53.2 as key intraday pivot support. Trend is still firmly bearish on the daily, so this is a tactical long-with-tight-risk, not a trend reversal call.
• Trade idea (24h horizon): Buy the pullback toward 54.2–54.4 with a target around the 38.2% retracement cluster near 57.2–57.5. Invalidation below 52.7; more conservative swing invalidation below 50.4 (Friday’s low).

1. Price action and structure

• Listing and collapse: FIG listed late July with a sharp initial pop (high 142.92 on 8/1), then trended down through August. The downtrend accelerated into early September with two large gap-down days, culminating in a capitulation-like session on 9/4 (close 54.56) and a washout-to-reversal on 9/5 (low 50.49, close 54.86 near the highs of the day-hourly range).
• Market structure (daily): Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since early August. 8/19 printed a local swing low (69.41), weak bounce 8/22–8/28 toward 77, then distribution around 70 before a breakdown to mid-60s (9/2) and the gap-crash to mid-50s (9/4). 9/5 printed a long lower wick and reclaimed the prior day’s close, signaling short-term demand emerging sub-52.
• Intraday (hourly, 9/5): Classic capitulation + reversal day. Early dump to 50.49, then steady higher lows and a late-day push to 54.96 with a close at 54.86 (near HOD). The last hour breakout/close near highs often sees early next-session follow-through as shorts cover and momentum traders enter.

2. Candlestick diagnostics

• 9/4: Large bearish marubozu-type session (gap-and-go down) with heavy volume — capitulation dynamics.
• 9/5: Bullish hammer/dragonfly-like session on the daily: long lower shadow, small real body, close back above prior close. This is a classic “first green day after a flush” pattern that statistically favors a 1–2 day relief bounce.
• Intraday 9/5: Hourly bullish continuation (series of higher lows, breakout and strong close) — constructive for the very short term.

3. Support and resistance mapping

• Supports: 50.5 (Friday’s swing low), 52.7–53.3 (hourly congestion/VWAP zone), psychological 50. Below 50: 48 and 45 would be the next legacy psychological shelves.
• Resistances: 55.7–56.0 (round + micro supply), 57.2–57.5 (38.2% retracement of 68.13→50.49), 59.3 (50% retracement), 60–61.4 (round + 61.8% retracement near 61.39), 65.6–68.1 (gap window from 9/3 to 9/4). The 56–58 band is the first meaningful supply shelf for a 24-hour bounce.

4. Moving averages overview (approximate)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 62.7; 10-day SMA ≈ 67.2; 20-day SMA ≈ mid-to-high 70s. Price (54.86) sits well below all key MAs, confirming a dominant bearish trend on higher timeframes. However, the large distance from these means suggests a stretched, oversold condition ripe for a short-term mean-reversion pop.

5. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14, daily): Likely rebounding from the mid/high-20s toward low-30s after Friday’s recovery — classic oversold bounce setup.
• Stochastic (daily): Embedded oversold recently; %K turning up through %D is consistent with a 1–3 session relief rally.
• MACD (daily): Deeply negative with a very wide spread; histogram contraction started Friday as downside momentum eased — early sign of bear-trend deceleration. On the hourly, MACD crossed up during the session and expanded into the close, supporting near-term upside continuation.

6. Volatility gauges

• ATR(14, daily): Elevated (approx 4.5–5.5), reflecting regime change to high volatility. Expect 24h ranges of ~±3–5 points.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2, daily): Price pierced/lived at the lower band 9/4 and snapped back inside on 9/5 — typical for a snapback toward the mid-band on lower timeframes; on daily, the mid-band is far above, but on hourly, bands have started to expand with price riding the upper band late day (momentum continuation tell).
• Keltner Channels (daily): 9/4’s move was outside the lower KC. 9/5 closed back inside — a textbook mean-reversion signal for a short-duration bounce.
• Donchian Channels (20-day): Upper ~90.7 (8/12), lower 50.49 (9/5). Price is at the lower boundary — a spot where short-term countertrend rallies often emerge.

7. Volume, breadth, and accumulation

• Volume: 9/4 ~29.3M, 9/5 ~20.7M — both multiples of the late-August daily volumes (3–10M), consistent with capitulation then responsive buying. Strong close on notable volume suggests shorts covered into the bell and dip buyers stepped in.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): OBV trend is down for weeks, but 9/5 registered a positive inflection. A/D line improved on the intraday recovery and close near highs. Not a trend reversal, but it supports a near-term relief move.

8. VWAP and anchored VWAPs

• Session VWAP (9/5): Likely around 53.1–53.5 given heavy early prints sub-53 and late strength. Price closed above VWAP and held above in the last hour — bullish for early next session.
• Anchored VWAP from 9/4’s gap-down open: Likely sits mid- to high-50s; should act as overhead supply and a magnet during a relief bounce, with first meaningful interaction expected around 56–58.

9. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price far below the cloud; Tenkan and Kijun overhead imply primary trend is bearish. However, on the hourly, Tenkan crossed above Kijun during Friday’s rebuild, and price closed above both — a short-term bullish signal. A future Kumo test on the hourly aligns with the 56–58 target zone.

10. Trend strength and directional movement

• DMI/ADX (daily): ADX elevated, -DI dominant — confirms strong downtrend. On the hourly, +DI rose and crossed -DI during the afternoon, signaling an intraday momentum regime change that often persists into the following open.
• Vortex (hourly): VI+ crossed over VI- intraday and widened into the close — supports follow-through early.

11. Pattern work

• Price pattern: A one-day “capitulation hammer” after an extended selloff, plus an intraday cup-and-handle-style breakout late session. Also a potential falling-wedge break on the hourly.
• Gap dynamics: Friday fully reclaimed the 9/5 opening gap and closed above 9/4’s close. The larger 9/3→9/4 gap (68→56 zone) remains open; first logical gap-fill step is 56–58, which aligns with Fibonacci 38.2% and anchored VWAP resistance.

12. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing considered: 9/3 close 68.13 → 9/5 low 50.49 (range 17.64).
• 38.2%: 50.49 + 0.382×17.64 ≈ 57.23
• 50%: ≈ 59.31
• 61.8%: ≈ 61.39
• Near-term target cluster: 57.2–57.5 is the first retracement + supply band.

13. Statistical/mean-reversion context

• First-green-day after a high-ATR capitulation day often sees a 1–2 day oversold bounce averaging ~1–3× ATR(1h) from the late-day close. With Friday’s strong close and no immediate overhead earnings catalyst, odds favor a push into the first resistance pocket on the next trading day.

14. Heikin-Ashi and Renko (qualitative cross-check)

• Heikin-Ashi (daily): Likely printed a smaller bearish/transition candle after a long sequence of large red bars, hinting at loss of bearish momentum.
• Renko (coarser brick): Still bearish, but the first countertrend brick is likely with a push through 55–56, which often triggers systematic short covering.

15. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• The 9/4 dump resembles a wave-3 climax; 9/5 is consistent with a wave-4 relief rally underway. Within the next 24 hours, a continuation into 56–58 fits wave-4 territory. A potential wave-5 lower low (sub-50) would be a later risk if the bounce stalls under 59–61.

16. Risk management and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (~55%): Early follow-through to 56–57.5 after a small pullback to 54.0–54.5; stall near the 38.2% Fib and anchored VWAP band.
• Bear case (~25%): Failure to hold 53.2 VWAP shelf; fast slip to 52.7; if that breaks decisively, momentum reverts to the downside and 51–50.5 retest possible.
• Bull stretch (~20%): If momentum is strong at the open and sellers are thin, extension to 58–59.3 (50% retrace) before consolidating.

17. Tactical plan

• Entry: Prefer a limit buy on a controlled dip toward 54.2 (prior micro shelf, just above Friday’s VWAP cluster 53.1–53.5). Alternative momentum trigger: buy a clean break/hold above 55.2 with volume.
• Target: 57.3 (in the 57.2–57.5 confluence zone: 38.2% Fib, first supply shelf, potential anchored VWAP test).
• Stop (for 24h tactical idea): 52.7 (below Friday’s mid-session higher low cluster). Conservative alt-stop: 50.4 (beneath Friday’s capitulation low) if sizing down.
• Reward-to-risk (using 54.2→57.3 target, 54.2→52.7 stop): ~+3.1 upside vs -1.5 downside ≈ 2.1R.

18. Bottom line

• The dominant trend is still down, but the combination of capitulation volume, a hammer close near highs, hourly momentum breadth, and multiple confluences into 57.2–57.5 favors a 24-hour relief bounce. This is a tactical long with tight risk, aiming to sell into the first major supply zone rather than attempting to call a full trend reversal.

24-hour price path projection

• Expected range: 52.8–57.8
• Path: Small dip to 54.0–54.5 at/near the next open → grind higher into 55.5–56.0 → test/overshoot 57.0 → fade and base between 56–57.
• Invalidation: A decisive break and hourly acceptance below 52.7 negates the bounce and reopens 51–50.5.