1. Multi-Layered Technical Analysis of Figma, Inc. (FIG)

A. Chart Pattern and Candlestick Analysis

The price action for FIG over the last two days shows several key characteristics worth highlighting:

• Initial Surge and Subsequent Pullback: On 2025-07-31, FIG opened at $90 and reached an intra-day high of $124.63, closing near the highs at $115.50. This represents substantial IPO-like volatility. On 2025-08-01, the opening price was $134.82, hitting a high at $142.92, but subsequently experiencing a significant drop to a low of $110.11, ultimately closing at $122.
• Volatility Analysis: The pronounced highs and lows, especially on both days, indicate extreme volatility—a common occurrence during an IPO or shortly after, when price discovery is highly active. The intraday swings (e.g., $142.92 to $110.11 in one session) and volumes confirm heightened activity with potential for both large gains and losses.
• Recent Candlestick Structures:
  • The candles show long wicks on both sides, indicating indecision and strong contest between bulls and bears.
  • The final hour (21:00) candle at $122.74 is a doji (open, high, low, close all identical), suggesting balance and a potential reversal or at least a pause in momentum.
  • Preceding hours: After a massive drop into $111, a recovery toward $122-$126, but upside momentum appears exhausted with the latest prints consolidating around $122-$123.

B. Support and Resistance Zones

• Resistance: Strong resistance resides at $134.82 (today's open), and $142.92 (today's high). Repeated selloffs above $130 emphasize supply in that range.
• Support: Immediate support is at $120 (breakdown region and consolidation low in several sessions). The next meaningful support area is $110 (the low of the last session and a clear reaction point). If $110 breaks, downside may accelerate quickly.
• Volume Profile: Peak volume correlates with the $120-$125 range, underscoring this as the focal battleground for bulls and bears.

C. Trend and Momentum Oscillators

• Moving Averages (Short-Term): Although no explicit moving averages are provided, the short-term trend appears bearish. After the massive rally, there's an observable sequence of lower highs and failed attempts to reclaim the $130s.
• RSI Estimate: With two wide-range days and a sharp pullback, the RSI would likely have moved from overbought (>70) down toward a neutral or even oversold range (35–45), reflecting diminished bullish enthusiasm.
• MACD Estimate: The MACD line likely crossed below the signal line during today’s session, confirming a bearish crossover triggered by heavy selling and momentum loss.

D. Volume and Orderflow Analysis

Volumes for both sessions are extremely high (>53 million shares), indicating institutional engagement and rapid hands-changing. Today’s selloff from the highs on heavy volume suggests that early speculative longs are taking profits or smart money is reducing exposure.

Notably, volume quickly faded as the price recovered from $111 to $122, implying that the bid-side demand is weaker than the earlier supply. The last hour almost no volume suggests consolidation but also points to a lack of aggressive buying and potential for a new move once markets reopen.

E. Volatility Indicators and Bollinger Bands Perspective

• The daily high of $142.92 and low of $110.11 define an outsized, approx. 23% daily range. This volatility signals potential for continued wide moves in the coming session.
• If Bollinger Bands were plotted, current price (near $122) would likely be below the midline and within reach of the lower band after such a selloff, indicating price can mean-revert or continue to test lower bands if bearishness persists.

F. Fibonacci Retracement and Projections

• Using the swing low of $90 (opening day) and swing high of $142.92:
  • 23.6%: $129
  • 38.2%: $121
  • 50%: $116
  • 61.8%: $111
• Current price is hovering around the 38.2% retracement level, suggesting a potential zone for pause/reaction. However, the breakdown through $120 toward $110 in the last session suggests downside risk remains if $120 fails to hold.

G. Psychological Factors and IPO Behavior

• Traders who bought post-IPO around $140 are likely sitting on losses and may be quick to sell into rallies, adding supply overhead.
• The sharp correction from highs to sub-$122 area in one session can shake out weak hands, but also discourage aggressive buying until new support is firmly established. New listings often show several days of price oscillation before a sustained trend is found.

H. Probability and Risk Assessment

• Buyers: Must see stable price action above $122, with rising volume and confirmation via reversal patterns (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing). Not evident in current data.
• Sellers: Control the trend, succeeded in pushing price from $143 down to $122, and preventing a close above $125 or in the prior range.

I. Combined Conclusion & 24-Hour Outlook

Given the exhaustion of buyers above $126, ongoing high volatility, and a lack of strong reversal signals, the probability favors further downside. There is risk of another test of the $120-$110 zone, potentially even lower if panic selling accelerates below the IPO lows.

A short position entered close to current price ($122) offers an optimal risk-to-reward profile, with a target near $112—just above the prior session lows and within Fibonacci confluence. Stop would be set above $126 (former resistance and failed breakout zone), but that’s for individual risk management and not reflected in this general recommendation.

Summary:

• Pattern: Bearish engulfing with breakdown out of immediate support.
• Volume: Confirming move with heavy selling pressure.
• Oscillators: Loss of momentum and increasing downside.
• Volatility: Still elevated, suggesting more range ahead, likely to the downside first.

Prediction: Price likely to continue sliding, targeting the $112 area within 24 hours as volatility persists and sellers dominate. Corrections toward $125 offer re-entry for shorts, but the trend currently favors downside pressure.

Action: Sell (Short Position) at $122, Target $112 for close within the next 24 hours.

All technical methods agree on a bearish stance given current information.