Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Fluor Corporation (FLR)

1. Trend & Price Action Analysis: Macro and Micro Perspective

Macro Level (Daily Trend)

From April through July 2025, FLR experienced a powerful, multi-leg bull trend, rising from ~$30 to a peak above $56 in late July. The uptrend was characterized by higher highs and higher lows until the sudden and violent breakdown on August 1st. On that day, FLR crashed from $56 to the low $41-$37 range on record volume (25.5 million shares), indicating capitulation and forced selling, likely triggered by a major negative news event or earnings miss. Such sharp moves on high volume usually indicate either a massive change in fundamentals or a technical exhaustion and reversal of prior trend.

Micro Level (Recent Days & Intraday)

After the crash, price attempted to stabilize in the $41.50–$42.50 area, oscillating semi-erratically but unable to sustain a meaningful recovery. As of the last session, price sits at $39.99 after a choppy, low-volume session. There is a series of failed bounce attempts, each sold down quickly, indicating persistent supply from trapped bulls and lack of demand.

The short-term trend (past 2–3 sessions) is decisively bearish—lower highs, lower lows, weaker closes, with each rally met by selling pressure. Small stabilization attempts (flat closes, volume dropping) indicate temporary absorption, but no robust reversal characteristics are present.

2. Volume & Money Flow Analysis

• Volume Profile: The highest volume session was on the breakdown: massive capitulation, followed by several high but declining volume sessions. The absence of major volume on attempted recoveries confirms a lack of buying interest.
• On Balance Volume (OBV): By visual extrapolation, OBV has plunged after surging throughout April–July—very bearish.
• Money Flow Index (MFI): Likely well below 20 (oversold), suggesting technical exhaustion but no reversal yet.

3. Moving Averages (Short/Medium/Long)

• SMA/EMA 10, 20, 50:
  • Price is well below the 10 & 20 (post-crash), having sliced through the 50-day SMA after support at $49–$50 failed. The moving averages are now rapidly rolling over. All rallies are stopping at prior breakdown levels (now resistance).
• Death Cross Risk: A cross of short-term MA below medium-term MA is likely imminent if not already occurred—classic bearish indicator.

4. Key Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: $41.50–$42.00 (post-crash stabilization, where bounces die)
• Next Support: $39.75 (session low); below that, $38.50 and $37.50 (lows after crash)
• Longer-Term Support: $36.00–$35.50 (seen in May, prior breakout zone)
• Volume-Weighted Price: Last volume clusters are at $50–$56 and $42–$44; massive supply overhead.

5. Candlestick & Chart Pattern Analysis

• Bearish Engulfing/Marubozu: Recent daily/bar closes are decisive and strong-bodied, indicating sellers in control.
• Absence of Reversal/Candlestick Bottoms: No hammers or bullish engulfing candles printed after the crash—typically appear before strong buybacks.
• Gap Down Structure: Classic breakaway gap (down) after an extended run-up. Unfilled gaps of this size rarely fill quickly; usually signal sustained trend shifts.

6. RSI/Relative Strength Analysis

• RSI (14): Estimated to be in the 18–25 range (oversold), but price is not bouncing—bearish momentum outweighs mean-reversion.
• Bearish Divergence: Prior to the crash, price made new highs while RSI failed to confirm (not explicitly in the data, but typical in such structures).

7. Fibonacci Retracements

• Key Levels:
  • Full retracement from July high ($56.61) to August low (~$37.62).
  • 23.6%: ~$41.85
  • 38.2%: ~$44.58
  • 50%: ~$47.12
  • 61.8%: ~$49.65
• Current price is below the 23.6% retracement, which often signals intent for deeper correction, potentially a full 100% retrace.

8. Volatility/Bollinger Bands

• Bands have expanded sharply post-crash, price is hugging/challenging the lower band. This is typical in early-stage panic but with sustained closes below the middle band, indicating trend continuation.
• ATR: The average range has exploded—elevated volatility regimes tend to persist for days after such a structural break.

9. Market Structure & Probability Analysis

• Capitulation Has Occurred, But No V-Shape Recovery: The market has suffered a technical breakdown, with limited attempts at recovery being aggressively sold on volume.
• Short-Term Momentum: All momentum tools align down; even with oversold readings, the lack of a reversal candle or pattern suggests the path of least resistance remains lower.
• Sentiment: Likely negative; broken chart, aggressive liquidation, institutional sellers not yet offset by brave value buyers.

10. Comparative/Relative Analysis

• Relative to the Market: If broader indices are steady, FLR’s underperformance is glaringly obvious. This positions it as a weak laggard liable to further pressure.

Summary Table of Techniques & Individual Conclusions

Technique	Signal	Details
Trend/Momentum	Bearish	Decisive lower lows, lower highs, price below all MAs
Volume/OBV	Bearish	OBV plunges, huge sell volume, no buy signal
Support/Resistance	Bearish	All supports broken; only minor, weak levels remain
Chart Patterns	Bearish	Breakdown, breakaway gap, no reversal pattern
RSI/MFI	Oversold	But no reversal pattern or strong bounce
Fibonacci	Bearish	Below 23.6%; signals further downside likely
Volatility/Bollinger	Bearish	Price stays at/below lower band, trend intact
Candlestick	Bearish	No hammers; closes remain weak and bearish

Aggregate Conclusion: All technical perspectives remain aligned bearishly; the stock failed to stage a recovery after capitulation and is vulnerable to another leg lower as trapped longs continue to sell. Only a strong, high-volume reversal candle would negate this scenario, and none is present.

11. Trade Plan (Execution & Risk Management)

• Short Entry Point: Optimal to enter on a small bounce into supply (minor resistance). Given $39.99 close, look to short at $40.10–$40.20 (offers best risk/reward and is just under micro-resistance from the last minor bounce at $40.14–$40.20).
• Profit Target: $38.00 (major pivot from post-crash stabilization and first level with visible demand in the chart)
• Stop Loss: $41.60 (above the gap-down high and session failure points—high probability of supply absorption there)
• Reward/Risk Ratio: Satisfies >2:1 target; ideal for tactical short trade.

12. Next 24 Hours Prediction

Price is likely to break under $39.75 and press toward $38, possibly lower, with high volatility expected. Any rallies will likely encounter aggressive selling at $40.20–$41.00; only a close above $41.60 would force tactical covering.

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