FRMI: Sell the Bounce Into 30–31 as Overhead Supply Looms; Eyes on 26.2 Next

Executive summary

• FRMI printed an extreme two-day volatility regime: a gap-and-go to an extended-hours high near 39.5 on 10/01 followed by a full “trend day down” on 10/02 from ~36–37 to the high-28s into the close. Current price is 28.78. The session probed the 78.6% retracement of the 24.5→39.5 upswing and closed beneath the 61.8% level, leaving overhead supply between 30–33. Probability-weighted path for the next 24 hours favors a relief bounce toward 30–31 that is subsequently sold, with risk of a continuation leg into the 26–25 area if 27.4 breaks.

Market structure and context (multi-timeframe)

• Daily context: 10/01 candle: Open 25, High 33.46 (RTH) and 39.5 (extended), Low 24.5, Close 32.53 on 41.1M shares – a very large expansion day with possible event/IPO-like character. 10/02 RTH: Open 36.05 (gap up 10.8% vs prior close), High 36.99, Low 27.39, Close 28.78 on 23.1M shares – a decisive distribution day with a failed gap and close near the lows.
• Intraday (10/02 hourly): The 13:30–14:30 ET opening hour printed a massive range (36.99→27.39) and the session subsequently stair-stepped lower: 31.77 → 29.92 → 29.82 → 29.90 → 30.29 → 30.08 → 28.82 → 28.65, finishing at 28.53 in the after-hours print. Structure: lower highs and lower lows throughout the day – classic trend day down.

Key levels (support/resistance)

• Prior day reference: 10/01 RTH close 32.53; RTH high 33.46; extended high 39.5; swing low 24.5.
• 10/02 session levels: High 36.99, Low 27.39, Close 28.78. Micro-resistances: 29.80, 30.23 (Fib 61.8%), 30.65 (intraday swing high 17:30), 31.16 (18:30 high), 31.77 (13:30 close/HVN zone), 32.00 (Fib 50%), 33.77 (Fib 38.2%), 32.53 (prior close). Supports: 28.51–28.65 (late-day range), 27.71 (Fib 78.6%), 27.39 (session low), 26.21 (Fib 88.6%), 25.00 (prior RTH open/psych), 24.50 (prior RTH low).

Fibonacci retracements (low 24.5 to high 39.5)

• 38.2%: 33.77 – well above current; acts as upper resistance if a larger rebound occurs.
• 50%: 32.00 – aligns with prior close zone; substantial supply.
• 61.8%: 30.23 – first major resistance on any bounce; confluence with intraday pivots.
• 78.6%: 27.71 – probed today and held marginally; “last stand” support before full round-trip risk.
• 88.6%: 26.21 – next deeper support; aligns with an attractive downside target for a continuation leg.

Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Opening hour (13:30) traded 14.06M shares, a potential volume climax bar. Subsequent hours traded materially less (2.35M → 1.78M → 1.01M → 1.07M → 1.33M → 1.32M), indicating strong initial distribution followed by controlled selling into close.
• Anchored session VWAP (anchored to 13:30 open) will sit materially above price, likely around the low-31s, given the heavy early prints >31. Price remained beneath VWAP for the bulk of the day – persistent downside control.
• High Volume Node (HVN) candidate: 31.5–32 from the opening hour close and cumulative traded shares; this is a strong supply shelf on any rally.

Trend and moving averages (qualitative, given data)

• Intraday short-term MAs (5/10/20) would be stacked bearishly and pointing down based on the sequence of lower highs/lows.
• Any higher-timeframe MA references are too short to be meaningful (new issue/event) but the slope of price is decisively negative on intraday frames.

Momentum and oscillators (qualitative read)

• RSI/Stochastics on 15–60m frames are likely sub-40/sub-20 into the close after a trend day down; momentum remains negative. Watch for brief mean-reversion pops from oversold conditions into the 29.8–30.6 band; failure there would confirm continuation.
• MACD on intraday frames: expanded negative histogram through the session with potential for a shallow bull cross only if price reclaims >30.2–30.6; otherwise, downside momentum likely persists.

Bollinger Bands and volatility

• Bands would have widened sharply today (range expansion). Price hugged the lower band into the close – typical of trend days where closing near the band suggests follow-through risk early next session, often after a small counter-trend bounce.
• Daily ATR proxy across the two sessions ≈ 9.3 (8.96 on 10/01; 9.60 on 10/02), implying ~32% daily volatility vs a $29 handle. A 24-hour move of ±3–5 points is statistically plausible.

Candlestick/price action patterns

• Extended-hours 10/01–10/02 showed a blow-off attempt to 39.5 then an evening/morning star-like rejection (39→35.65). 10/02 RTH printed a wide-range red candle closing near the lows: trend day down.
• Intraday, price created multiple bear flags (tight consolidations at 30–30.5 and 29.8–30) that broke lower, culminating in a late-day liquidity sweep near 28.5–28.8.

Ichimoku (conceptual)

• Price is below conversion/base lines and well below any plausible cloud on intraday frames; future cloud would be red. Bias: bearish unless we reclaim the Kijun region (~30.5–31.0 proxy).

Elliott wave (heuristic)

• From the premarket high (~37) to RTH low (27.4), the session resembles a 5-wave impulsive decline. The late-day pause near 28.6 could be a wave-4/5 termination leading to an ABC corrective bounce toward 0.382–0.618 retrace of the intraday downswing (targets: 29.9–30.9), after which the larger downtrend may resume toward 27.4/26.2.

Mean reversion vs trend continuation

• Mean reversion case: Oversold bounce to 30.0–31.0 (toward anchored VWAP and Fib 61.8%). Probability increases if the first 30–60 minutes tomorrow hold above 28.8 and reclaim 29.8.
• Continuation case: Failure on bounce below 30.2 or an opening drive under 27.7/27.4 triggers a continuation leg to 26.2 with risk of a full gap-fill toward 25–24.5 if panic returns.

Scenario probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Bounce-and-fade (most likely): 60% – Pop to 29.8–30.8, sellers reassert, price rotates down to retest 27.7/27.4 and potentially probe 26.2.
• Immediate breakdown: 30% – Early loss of 27.7/27.4 without a material bounce, straight-line slide to 26.2; reflex bid thereafter.
• V-shaped squeeze: 10% – Strong reclaim of 30.6 and sustained acceptance >31.2 (session VWAP zone) opens a path to 32.0–32.5 back-test; less likely without fresh catalyst.

Confluences supporting a tactical short-on-strength

• Overhead supply: Heavy opening-hour volume above 31 with trapped longs; first resistance at 30.2–30.6.
• Fib confluence: 61.8% at 30.23, micro swing high at 30.65, and HVN around 31.7 overhead.
• Trend and VWAP: Price below anchored VWAP with lower highs/lows – rallies are sellable until VWAP is reclaimed and held.
• Downside magnets: 78.6% level 27.7 already tested; 88.6% at 26.2 aligns as a logical extension target.

Risk management blueprint (for context)

• Entry preference: Short into 30.2–30.6 supply (limit ~30.40), where risk can be defined tightly above 31.6–31.8 (above micro swing/near session VWAP).
• Stop (not part of output fields, but crucial): ~31.70–31.80 (above rejection band).
• Take profit: 26.20 primary; scale consideration at 27.40 if momentum stalls.
• Reward to risk from 30.40 entry to 26.20 target vs 31.75 stop ≈ (30.40−26.20)/(31.75−30.40) ≈ 4.20/1.35 ≈ 3.1:1.

What would invalidate the short bias?

• Sustained acceptance above 31.2 (anchored VWAP zone) and a 60-min close above 31.8. That would indicate sellers losing control and opens a path to 32.0–33.8.

24-hour price path prediction

• Baseline path: Early bounce toward 29.8–30.6, failure below 31 leads to a rollover through 29.0 and a retest of 27.7/27.4. If 27.4 breaks on expanding volume, continuation to 26.2 is favored before a reflex bounce.
• Alternate: Immediate gap down through 27.7 at the open → fast tag of 26.2, then a sharp rebound to ~28.5–29.2.

Bottom line

• The tape favors selling strength: strong trend down day, price below anchored VWAP, overhead HVN at 31–32, and a clean downside extension target at 26.2. Use a patience entry on a relief bounce near 30.4 with risk tightly defined above 31.7–31.8. If the market instead reclaims and holds above VWAP (>31.2) with a 60-min close above 31.8, step aside; the short thesis weakens materially.