FTNT stalls at the 38.2% retrace: Fading the 80 wall into a bear-flag rollover

Comprehensive multi-technique technical analysis for FTNT (Fortinet) with 24-hour outlook

Data snapshot and context

• Current price: 79.11 (2025-08-15 21:00 UTC). Intraday high ~79.82, low ~77.04. Session closed near 79.11 on elevated but declining post-gap volume.
• Recent regime shift: A massive earnings gap on 2025-08-07 from the mid-90s to the mid-70s on extreme volume (~47M) established a new, lower value area. Subsequent days carved a base 72.8–76.9 and a rebound into 79–80.
• Key nearby levels: 80.0–80.3 (38.2% retrace of the gap break; supply), 78.5 (intraday VWAP cluster/closing pivot), 77.2–77.3 (prior close/support), 75.3 (gap-day close), 74.4 (08/08 close), 72.8 (swing low), 70.1 (gap-day low).

Price action and structure

• Daily trend: Strong downtrend. Lower highs since early July (107.8 → 104.9 → 101.7 → 99.9 → gap to 75) with the rebound topping near 80.1 on 08/13—precisely near a classical Fibonacci resistance. The current 4–5 day advance has the character of a bear-flag retracement within a larger downtrend.
• Intraday (hourly) structure 08/15: Opening drive from 77.7 to 79.8, then sideways-to-softer into the close. Price oscillated around intraday VWAP late day, indicating fading momentum into resistance. The market rejected above ~79.7–79.8 multiple times.
• Candles: Post-gap, daily candles show lower tails off 73–75, then smaller real bodies as price neared 80—typical of a pause beneath resistance. Today’s upper wicks into 79.7–79.8 signal supply absorption and failure to break a key pivot.

Support and resistance mapping

• Resistance: 79.8–80.3 (multi-touch intraday cap, Fibonacci 38.2% of 96.6 → 70.1 move), 81.2–83.4 (gap supply and 50% retrace overhang; stretch level if squeezed), 86.5 (61.8% retrace; unlikely near-term).
• Support: 78.5 (intraday POC/closing pivot), 77.2–77.3 (08/14 close and intraday reaction), 76.0–76.5 (anchored VWAP zone from gap day; indicative), 74.3–75.3 (heavy volume node from 08/07–08/11), 72.8 (swing low), 70.1 (capitulation low).

Moving averages (trend filters)

• 5/10-day EMAs: Rising short-term from the 74–76 base, but still well below the 20/50/200. Short-term momentum positive, bigger picture negative. Expect these to flatten beneath 80 resistance if price stalls.
• 20-day SMA: Still far above price (>90, given many pre-gap prints), sloping down—confirms bearish intermediate trend.
• 50-day/200-day SMAs: Materially above spot (roughly ~100+). Price is decisively below all major moving averages—bearish regime. Any rally into the low-80s remains countertrend until closes reclaim and hold above the 20-day first.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (14D): Rebounded from oversold into the low-to-mid 40s; below 50 usually favors sellers in a downtrend. Momentum improved but not strong enough to flip regime; risk of rolling over beneath 50.
• MACD (D): Histogram rising toward zero after the gap washout, but lines still negative. This is the classic “bearish rally” signature—momentum relief inside a broader downtrend. A failure just below/near the zero line corresponds well to 79.8–80.3 resistance.
• Stochastics (D): Likely near mid-to-high zone after the bounce; prone to turning down from 60–70 in bear phases.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14D) (approx): ~3.0. Implies an expected next-session range of ±1.5–2.0 around the open, with tails potentially larger. From 79.1, a typical swing could test 77.0–81.0.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Bands widened on the gap and are slowly contracting. Price sits well below the mid-band (20SMA) and inside the lower half of the envelope—consistent with a bear rally pausing.
• Keltner Channels: Price towards the upper Keltner after a sharp rebound; mean reversion risk lower unless momentum expands further above 80.

Volume, VWAPs, and participation

• Volume: Peak capitulation 08/07, then sequentially declining volumes on the rebound—classic for a countertrend bounce meeting overhead supply. Today’s volume was still elevated vs. pre-gap norms but lower than early rebound days; buyers losing incremental dominance.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution: Stabilized after the flush but not decisively trending up. No clear accumulation thrust to suggest a V-shaped reversal.
• Anchored VWAPs: From the gap day (08/07) likely sits ~75.5–76.5 given outsized volume there; price above this AVWAP is constructive for bounce participants, but anchored from the last pre-gap session is far above and irrelevant near term. The local AVWAP serves as dynamic support; a loss of 76.5 would likely accelerate sellers.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Retracement of 96.6 → 70.1: 38.2% = ~80.2 (tagged/failed), 50% = ~83.3, 61.8% = ~86.5. The precise hesitation near 80.1–80.2 strengthens the case that 80 is a pivotal supply shelf. A daily close above 80.3 would open a 81.5–83.5 magnet; otherwise, base case is rejection.
• Bear-flag measure: Flagpole (99.9 → 70.1 ~29.8). The current flag rising from 74.4 to ~80 is shallow versus the pole; failure below ~80 tends to resume the dominant down-leg, at least to retest 76–77.

Ichimoku

• Price well below the Cloud; Cloud thick overhead (reflecting prior high volatility). Tenkan and Kijun are above price; Chikou lagging below price/Cloud—bearish alignment. Any rallies into 80–81 are inside resistance congestion.

Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag / rising wedge flavor on the 60–120 minute timeframe into 79.8–80.0 with weakening momentum and repeated rejections.
• Multiple rejections near 79.8 form a micro triple-top; failure to hold above 78.9–79.1 post-retest would trigger a push toward 78.0 then 77.2.

Market profile and volume shelves

• Visible volume-by-price suggests a developing node around 74–76 (high participation during the post-gap base). A thinner area exists 79–83 (the gap zone), meaning directional moves can be fast once a level breaks—but supply up here has been capping advances.

Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Fade from 79.8–80.2 resistance into 77.0–78.0 as the bear-flag stalls and momentum rolls. This aligns with ATR and the repeated intraday failures today.
• Range/Pin (25%): Chop between 78.5 and 80.0 with closing prints near 78.8–79.3 as participants await fresh catalysts; limited directional follow-through into the weekend.
• Upside squeeze (15%): Quick tag through 80.3 triggers stops and a run into 81.2–81.8 (possible gap-fill nibble), but likely stalls below 83.3 unless new information arrives.

Risk management and execution plan (short-biased)

• Thesis: Countertrend rally into 38.2% retrace met supply; macro trend down; oscillators capped below neutral; volume unimpressive on the advance; intraday rejections near 79.8–80.0. Favor selling strength into resistance.
• Entry: Prefer a retest of 79.8–80.2 to optimize R:R. If price gaps down Monday, consider a VWAP fade on first meaningful bounce if 79.5 fails intraday.
• Stop (invalidation): Above 80.9–81.2 on a 30–60 minute closing basis; that would suggest a squeeze risk toward 82–83.3. Conservative stop: 81.3. Tighter, tactical stop: 80.95.
• Targets: First target 77.2 (recent close/support), second target 76.6 (AVWAP support zone), stretch 75.3 if momentum accelerates.
• R:R example: Short 79.9, stop 81.1 (−1.2), target 77.2 (+2.7) ≈ 2.25:1.

Cross-check across methods

• Trend filters (MAs, Ichimoku): Bearish
• Momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch): Countertrend uptick failing below neutrality—bearish bias
• Volatility (ATR/Bollinger/Keltner): Space for a 2–3 point move; rejection near upper channel—bearish tilt
• Volume/AVWAP: Rally on lighter volume into resistance; AVWAP support lower—bearish near 80
• Fib/Structure: Exact stall at 38.2%—bearish until reclaimed
• Pattern: Bear flag/rising wedge into supply—bearish continuation favored

24-hour price outlook

• Probability-weighted expectation leans to a mild pullback: 78.0 ± 1.0 by next regular session close, with intraday probes toward 77.0 possible. Upside risk if 80.3 is reclaimed with energy.

Conclusion

• Bias: Sell the rip into 79.8–80.2. Expect a drift lower toward 77.2 within 24 hours, with potential extension to 76.6 if sellers press.