GDRX: Buying the 50% Pullback for a Snapback to R1

Overview and context

• Ticker: GDRX (GoodRx Holdings, Inc.)
• Last price: ~4.37–4.43 during late session on Aug 20
• Regime shift: After a prolonged multi-month 4.3–5.1 range, the stock collapsed into early Aug (lows ~3.30–3.47), then exploded on Aug 18 on exceptional volume (≈55M shares), followed by a two-day pullback toward the gap zone. We are now probing a high-probability retracement/support cluster.

Catalyst/volume backdrop

• Aug 18: outsized volume (≈55M) with a large gap and strong close at 5.12. Such a volume shock often marks an impulse leg (Wave 1) in an emerging trend.
• Aug 19: Healthy pullback on significantly lower volume (~13.7M), indicative of profit-taking rather than a trend failure.
• Aug 20: Further pullback intraday (low ~4.281) with stabilization into the close (prints >4.40). Volume continued to compress vs Aug 18. The volume pattern (impulse up on heavy volume, retrace on declining volume) is classically constructive.

Price structure and pattern diagnostics

• Gap-and-go setup: Gap from Aug 15 close (~3.73) to Aug 18 open (~4.65). Price has retraced into the gap zone without filling it, currently hovering in the upper half of the gap. Partial gap fills after such catalysts are common and often terminate around 50–61.8% retracement of the impulse.
• Candlestick context (Aug 20 regular session): Long lower shadow from ~4.28 to closes near ~4.37–4.43 suggests dip-buying interest. Not a textbook hammer, but the rejection of sub-4.30 levels is notable.
• Intraday sequence (Aug 20): Lower highs/lows into ~4.28, then higher lows into the close and a recovery to ~4.43. This looks like an attempt to base intraday after a two-day mean-reversion.

Key levels (multi-timeframe confluence)

• Immediate support: 4.28 (today’s intraday low), 4.20 (classic S1 and 61.8% fib area), 4.10–4.03 (deeper support cluster and S2).
• Near resistance: 4.44–4.45 (pivot P / 50% fib), 4.60–4.66 (R1 band and prior breakdown shelf), 4.87–4.90 (R2 band / prior congestion), 5.00 (psychological and round-number supply), 5.12 (Aug 18 close) to 5.25 (Aug 19 high).

Fibonacci analysis (dominant swing)

• Swing low: 3.305 (Aug 7 intraday) to swing high: 5.41 (Aug 18 intraday). Range = 2.105.
  • 38.2%: 5.41 − 0.804 ≈ 4.606
  • 50.0%: 5.41 − 1.0525 ≈ 4.358 (current price zone)
  • 61.8%: 5.41 − 1.302 ≈ 4.108
• Price is sitting almost exactly at the 50% retracement, a textbook spot for a reflexive bounce if the impulse leg remains intact. A deeper flush could test 4.11 (61.8%), but holding above 4.20 keeps the bullish retracement thesis clean.

Pivot points (based on Aug 20 H/L/C ≈ 4.704/4.281/4.37)

• Pivot P ≈ 4.452
• R1 ≈ 4.622, R2 ≈ 4.875
• S1 ≈ 4.199, S2 ≈ 4.029
• The current price below P but above S1 suggests favorable mean-reversion odds back toward P and possibly R1 over the next session, provided S1 holds.

Moving averages (approximations from last 20–50 sessions)

• 10D SMA: drifting lower post-spike, likely ~4.50–4.55.
• 20D SMA: likely ~4.5–4.7 given July/early Aug prints and recent spike; price now slightly below the 20D basis, placing it in the lower half of its recent distribution.
• 50D SMA: near mid-4s to upper-4s; price is oscillating around it. Interpretation: Price is below short/intermediate MAs after a violent mean-reversion, which often sets up a bounce into those MAs (4.50–4.65) if the catalyst is credible.

Bollinger Bands (20,2) – qualitative

• Basis likely ~4.60 with expanded bands after the volatility shock.
• Price is in the lower-third of the band envelope, favoring a reversion move back toward the basis (4.5–4.6) if selling pressure continues to wane.

RSI/Stochastics

• Daily RSI likely cooled from overbought post-spike to mid-40s–low-50s. This is a neutral-to-positive state with room to rebound.
• Hourly RSI dipped to mid-30s–40s during the selloff and recovered into close, consistent with a momentum trough and embryonic turn.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Still positive post-impulse, histogram shrinking as price retraces—typical of a healthy pullback within a new up-leg. Not yet a bearish cross on daily.
• Intraday MACD (hourly): Likely crossed down earlier; histogram contracting into the close, hinting at a potential turn up if price reclaims the pivot (~4.45).

ADX/Trend strength

• Daily ADX rising off low levels after the Aug 18 impulse, indicating increasing trend strength. The pullback is corrective so far; a sustained break below ~4.10 would challenge this view.

Volume/OBV/Accumulation

• OBV surged on Aug 18, then eased modestly; cumulative profile remains elevated vs pre-catalyst. The two down days did not negate the volume thrust.

VWAPs

• Intraday VWAP (Aug 20) clustered around 4.38–4.40; late prints reclaimed/hovered above VWAP, indicating late-session accumulation.
• Anchored VWAP from Aug 18 (the event day) likely sits higher (≈4.85–4.95). Expect supply to emerge below that zone; hence, 4.60–4.70 is the first realistic magnet for a 24h bounce, not a full VWAP recapture in one day.

Elliott Wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 3.30 → 5.41 impulse (Aug 7–18)
• Wave 2: Ongoing ABC pullback: A (Aug 19 sell), B (intraday bounces), C (Aug 20 morning flush to 4.28). A completed C near the 50% fib fits the playbook; confirmation would be a break/reclaim of 4.45–4.50.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• After the impulse, price likely pulled back toward/into the cloud on lower timeframes; baseline (Kijun) estimated around mid-4.5s. A reclaim of 4.50–4.55 would be a constructive signal; current price is testing the cloud lower bounds intraday.

ATR and risk geometry

• Recent daily true range expanded to ~0.40–0.50. With current ATR, a 24h move from 4.33 toward 4.62 is within typical range. Downside probe to ~4.20 also fits ATR.

Support/resistance map synthesis

• Demand: 4.28 (today’s defended low), 4.20 (S1 + fib 61.8 cluster), 4.10 (61.8 exact), 4.03 (S2 and gap mid-zone), 3.73 (gap bottom; strong line in the sand for the broader move).
• Supply: 4.44–4.45 (pivot), 4.60–4.66 (R1 and prior shelf), 4.87–4.90 (R2 / pre-fade shelf), 5.00–5.12 (psych/close), 5.25 (Aug 19 high).

Candlestick/pattern observations

• Aug 19 likely a long-bodied red with upper wick (distribution), Aug 20 a smaller real body with a lower tail—common in two-step corrections before a reflex rally.
• Intraday (Aug 20) shows a descending channel morphing into a basing pattern; late prints near 4.43 suggest a potential break attempt above the intraday downtrend line if early strength appears tomorrow.

Probabilistic 24h outlook

• Bullish bounce scenario (≈55–60%): Hold above 4.28–4.33 early, reclaim pivot 4.45, then extend toward 4.60–4.66 (R1). Catalyst memory + volume profile support this.
• Sideways base (≈25–30%): Chop between 4.28 and 4.50 as the market digests the gap.
• Bearish extension (≈10–15%): Lose 4.28 → 4.20 test; if that fails, 4.10–4.03 next. This would threaten the immediate bounce but not necessarily the larger thesis unless 3.73 gap bottom is attacked.

Trading plan (24h tactical)

• Bias: Buy the dip near support with a target at the first overhead supply band.
• Entry zone: 4.31–4.35 (just above S1-S/R cluster and near today’s VWAP), with tolerance down to ~4.28 if liquidity sweeps early.
• Take profit zone: 4.62–4.66 (R1 band and prior micro-shelf). This aligns with ATR capacity and the first real supply wall.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk management, not part of order output): A daily/hourly close below 4.20 would invalidate the immediate bounce and risk a 4.10 test; a tactical stop could sit ~4.19 to preserve 2.5–3x R/R.
• Reward/Risk: Entry 4.33, TP 4.66 (+0.33); stop guide 4.19 (−0.14) → R/R ≈ 2.4–2.6x. Fits a high-quality mean-reversion with catalyst support.

Cross-check with classic indicators summary

• RSI: Neutral with room up → supports bounce.
• MACD: Daily positive, intraday turning up → supports bounce if pivot reclaimed.
• Bollinger: Price in lower-third → mean reversion to basis likely.
• Pivots/Fibs: Sitting at 50% fib and below pivot; target R1 is natural magnet.
• Volume: Pullback on declining volume → corrective, not distributive.

Conclusion Given the confluence at the 50% retracement, proximity to S1, declining sell volume, and intraday basing attempts, the higher-odds 24h play is a tactical long aiming for a reversion toward 4.62–4.66. Risk is managed against 4.20. A decisive loss of 4.20 would shift bias to a deeper retrace toward 4.10–4.03, but base case favors a bounce.