Exhaustive Technical Analysis for GE Aerospace (GE)

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1. Price Action Analysis (Trends, S/R)

Long-term Trend (Year-to-date and 2025)

• Multi-month upward move: Jan–May’s close rose from ~$185 to recent highs above $235 (~27%), after a period of mid-Apr to late-Apr volatility.
• Volatility spike: Extraordinary volume and price whipsaw were seen in early April — 4/3 and 4/4 marked a rapid drop from $200s to $166 area (capitulation), quickly reclaimed by mid-Apr.
• Strong V-shaped recovery: Prices rebounded sharply above old highs by mid-May, suggesting institutional buy support.

Recent Short-term Patterns

• Past three sessions (5/16–5/20):
  • 5/16: Bullish surge to $232
  • 5/19: New high $235.87, closes $235.29
  • 5/20: Tight range, closes $235.26
• Last hours: Inter-day range contraction, intraday lows hold above $233, while highs capped near $236. Weak after-hours drift (8:00–8:30 UTC: $234.22→$233.26).

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2. Volume Analysis

• Peak volume: April saw record panic sell/buy volumes (chart: 4/3–4/7, >12M shares/day)
• Recent sessions: Volume is healthy but not extreme (~4M-7M), with no blow-off top. Upward moves are supported by rising but orderly volume.
• Last intraday readings: Volume spikes at the open then tapers – implies less conviction as price tightens at highs.

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3. Moving Averages (MA Analysis)

• 50-Day MA: (visual estimate) sits near $210, well below current price. This is bullish (price > MA) but also signals an extended condition
• 20-Day MA: Near $228, offering soft support
• Price is far extended above all major MAs — historically, such extensions mean elevated reversion risk

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4. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Estimated RSI (14d) > 75: Prices have sustained a massive rally, with no meaningful pullback since breaking above $200 in early May
• **RVOL (Relative Volume) elevated during latest surge, but no overblown parabolic blow-off yet
• Overbought: RSI in excess of 70 typically signals potential for near-term pullback

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5. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• MACD Line far above Signal Line (visual est.): Bullish momentum strong but histogram is flattening
• Bearish divergence possible: MACD histogram has begun to compress, momentum may be waning as price slows at resistance

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6. Bollinger Bands

• Price pressed to upper band > $235 for several sessions
• Bands widening confirms high volatility
• Potential squeeze reversal as price hovers at edge of the band with weakening momentum

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7. Candlestick Patterns (Last 2–3 Days)

• Doji (indecision) on 5/20: Small real body, long wicks
• Potential topping tail (5/19) after a new high

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8. Fibonacci Retracement

• Swing low: April crash low $167
• High: $236
• Key retrace levels:
  • 23.6%: ~$218
  • 38.2%: ~$208
  • 50%: ~$201
• If pullback occurs, prices could easily revert toward $218 or lower

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9. Order Flow / Market Depth

• Intraday prints show repeated failure above $235–$236
• Aftermarket drift: Price faded to $233-$234 with buyer exhaustion

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10. Elliott Wave Perspective

• Strong wave 3 up likely ended at $236
• Potential minor correction (wave 4) unfolding. Impulse wave over, ABC correction possible

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11. Chart Patterns

• Rising wedge: Short-term hourly data resembles a wedge, notorious for bearish breakdown pressure
• Distribution signs: Tight closing atop range on lighter volume often signals distribution by smart money

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12. Psychological Round Numbers

• $235–$236 acts as a psychological barrier; repeated failure to close convincingly above this level.

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13. Historical Volatility & ATR

• ATR expanded in April, declined in May. High volatility points to likelihood of strong reversal swings

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14. Summary Table of Signals

Indicator	Signal/Interpretation
Price Action	Uptrend, near resistance
Volume	Orderly, but declining at new highs
MAs	Bullish, but stretched
RSI	Overbought (danger sign)
MACD	Bullish, but flattening
BBands	Overextension, squeeze risk
Candles	Indecision, toppish
Fib Retrace	Room to revert - supports ~$218/$208
Market Depth	Buyer exhaustion, offer stacking
Elliott Wave	Correction likely
Patterns	Rising wedge, possible distribution
Psych barriers	Repeated $235–$236 failures
ATR/Volatility	Volatility high, reversal zone

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15. Predictive Outlook (Next 24–48h)

• Highest probability: Short-term pullback/consolidation below $236
• Catalysts for reversal:
  • Overbought technicals (RSI/MACD/MA extension)
  • Rejection/Indecision at new highs
  • Buyer exhaustion post-momentum surge
• Target zone for pullback: $228–$220 (first support at 20-DMA/Fib 23.6%)
• If index/fund flows shift risk-off, GE could revert to $215–218 (strong support)

Considerations for Counter-thesis (Bull Case):

• Only highly material positive catalyst (earnings surprise, guidance raise, M&A, macro boost) could force a squeeze and invalidate the setup above. No such data in the price/volume currently.

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Conclusion & Trading Plan

The balance of signals indicates significant risk for a short-term retracement. The prudent, high-probability trade is to take a short (SELL) position at/near current levels, targeting a mean-reversion to support.

Entry: Short at/above $234.50–$235.30 Target: Close-out at $228 (first major support)

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Trading Note

• Use a stop-loss above $236.50 (recent high) to protect if momentum turns parabolic
• Trailing stop suggested as price approaches the target