GEVO at the 38.2% Sweet Spot: Coiling Above Gap Support for a Dip-Buy Pop

Executive summary

• GEVO just completed a high-volume breakout (Aug 12–13) followed by a healthy 2–3 day pullback and intraday basing around 1.78–1.82. Price now sits directly on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Aug spike, with clear gap support near 1.75. The tape shows volume contraction into support, waning downside momentum, and multiple confluences (Fib, pivot S1, prior gap open, intraday VWAP zone). Bias for the next 24 hours is modestly bullish: a range-bound open with a dip-and-rip pattern favored toward 1.90–1.95 if 1.76–1.78 holds.
• Trade idea: Buy the dip near 1.78 with a stop below 1.72 and a 24h take-profit toward 1.95 (R2/upper range). Risk/reward ~2.8–3.0R.

Context and recent structure

• Pre-breakout base: GEVO consolidated for months between ~1.10–1.35 with a June/July stair-step higher to 1.50–1.60, then faded to 1.15–1.25 into Aug 8–11.
• Breakout and expansion: Aug 12 exploded on 82M shares, opening ~1.75 and closing ~1.99; Aug 13 extended to 2.15 high with 18.7M shares. That’s a classic gap-and-go with follow-through.
• Pullback: Aug 14–15 retraced into 1.84 → 1.80 closes on lighter volume (8.99M → 4.35M), probing 1.76–1.80 while respecting gap support around 1.75.

Price action and volume study

• Range and levels (last 3 sessions):
  • Highs: 2.15 (Aug 13), 1.93 (Aug 14), 1.87 (Aug 15)
  • Lows: 1.77 (Aug 14), 1.76 (Aug 15)
  • Closes: 1.98 → 1.84 → 1.80
• Volume profile character: Massive spike day (Aug 12), then orderly decay; this is typical after a catalyst when early profit-taking is absorbed near Fib supports. The heaviest recent traded prices cluster around 1.80–1.85 (volume node), which often acts as a magnet/intraday VWAP reversion zone.
• On-Balance Volume (qualitative): Strong jump with the breakout, flat-to-mildly negative the last two sessions, consistent with consolidation rather than distribution.

Multi-timeframe read

• Daily trend: Up (higher high, higher low sequence since late June), price still above the major daily MAs (estimates below), and above the Ichimoku cloud.
• 60-min trend: Short-term corrective channel down from 1.98 → 1.76, but basing attempts around 1.78–1.82 with repeated reclaims.
• 15-min structure (Aug 15): Saw a morning push to 1.87, dip to 1.76, then several higher-lows toward the close around 1.80–1.81. This looks like a developing rounded base with sellers tiring.

Key confluences and levels

• Gap support: ~1.75 (Aug 12 gap open). First tests often hold if the broader breakout remains intact.
• Fibonacci retracements (low 1.18 on Aug 8 to high 2.15 on Aug 13; move = 0.97):
  • 23.6%: 1.92 (initial resistance, aligns with R2)
  • 38.2%: 1.78 (current price zone)
  • 50%: 1.665 (deeper support if 1.75 breaks)
  • 61.8%: 1.55 (trend invalidation area on daily)
• Classical pivots for next session (using Aug 15 H/L/C = 1.87/1.76/1.80):
  • P ≈ 1.81; R1 ≈ 1.86; S1 ≈ 1.75; R2 ≈ 1.92; S2 ≈ 1.70
• Horizontal S/R map:
  • Supports: 1.76–1.78 (Fib 38.2 + S1 + intraday demand), 1.70 (S2), 1.66 (50% Fib), 1.60 (prior July cap)
  • Resistances: 1.86–1.87 (R1/intraday high), 1.90–1.92 (R2/23.6% Fib), 2.00 (psych), 2.15 (swing high)

Indicator-by-indicator

1. Moving Averages (estimates)

• 5/8 EMA (daily): curling down slightly but still above the 20SMA; price testing/below short EMAs intraweek, common in a flag.
• 10/20 SMA: ~1.48–1.55 region after incorporating the spike; price at 1.80 remains well above these trend MAs.
• 50 SMA: rising, likely ~1.33–1.40; 20>50 and price>50 = structurally bullish.
• Read-through: Pullbacks toward the 10/20 MAs were shallow; the market is defending higher levels (bullish trend intact).

2. RSI

• Daily RSI likely cooled from overbought to mid-50s/low-60s; ideal reset for continuation.
• 60-min RSI oscillated around 40–50 on Aug 15 and began hooking up late session, typical of basing before a bounce.
• Read-through: Momentum reset without breaking trend = constructive.

3. MACD

• Daily MACD above zero, histogram retracing toward zero on the pullback; signal cross risk diminishes if price stabilizes here.
• 60-min MACD shows a flattening negative histogram and potential bullish cross if 1.84 gets reclaimed.
• Read-through: Higher-timeframe momentum remains positive; short-term momentum is close to turning.

4. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Bands expanded on the spike; mean (20SMA) sits below price; price now between mid-band and upper band.
• Read-through: No overbought squeeze; room exists to travel to the upper band (~1.95–2.00 depending on realized volatility).

5. ATR and volatility

• Daily ATR expanded post-catalyst, roughly ~0.18–0.22. A 24h move of 0.12–0.18 is plausible, supporting a 1.78 → 1.92–1.96 target range in a single session.

6. ADX/DMI

• ADX likely in the mid/high-20s from the expansion; +DI above –DI though the gap narrows during consolidation.
• Read-through: Trend is established; consolidation is typical before next directional leg.

7. Stochastic Oscillator

• Daily: Pulled back from overbought; %K near midline and attempting to curl up.
• Intraday: Cycling higher from oversold toward neutral late on Aug 15.
• Read-through: Turn up from neutral zones often precedes a continuation pop in strong trends.

8. Ichimoku

• Price above cloud; Leading Span A rising; Conversion (Tenkan) likely ~1.74–1.78; Base (Kijun) ~1.60–1.65.
• Chikou span above price cluster.
• Read-through: Bullish regime; pullback into/near Tenkan is a classic buy-the-dip in Ichimoku systems.

9. VWAP and intraday tape

• Aug 15 day-VWAP hovered around ~1.81–1.82; late prints near 1.80 were slightly below VWAP but repeatedly reverted toward it.
• Read-through: Into the next session, a VWAP reclaim above 1.82–1.84 would likely attract momentum buyers and algos, targeting R1/R2.

10. Candlestick behavior

• Aug 14: Long range with rejection off the lows (buyers stepped in sub-1.80).
• Aug 15: Lower high but higher low vs 1.76? Tested 1.76 and closed 1.80, indicating demand at the 38.2% retrace.
• Read-through: No clear bearish reversal; more like digestion with demand surfacing on dips.

11. Linear regression channel (short-term)

• Downsloping intraday channel from 1.98 → 1.76; the lower boundary sits ~1.76–1.78. Price is at the lower edge; mean reversion to midline (~1.85–1.88) is likely before any further decision.

12. Market profile/volume nodes (qualitative)

• High-volume node around 1.80–1.84; low-volume pocket 1.90–1.98 from the breakout tape.
• Read-through: Once 1.86–1.90 is reclaimed, price can travel quickly through the LVN toward 1.95–2.00.

Pattern diagnostics

• Bull flag / falling channel: The pullback slope vs prior impulse is shallow with lower volume—fits a bull flag.
• Cup-and-handle potential (micro): Left rim ~1.87–1.90, handle forming around 1.78–1.82. A push over 1.90 completes the handle breakout toward 1.95–2.00.
• Gap-and-hold behavior: The initial gap from 1.25 → 1.75 is largely intact; partial fills to 1.75 found buyers—bullish character.

Probabilistic 24h path

• Base case (55–60%): Early probe 1.76–1.80, hold, then push into 1.86–1.92. If momentum unlocks above 1.90, extension to 1.95 possible.
• Alt downside (25–30%): Quick flush through 1.75 toward 1.70–1.72 (S2 zone) before buyers reload. That would be a deeper but still constructive pullback unless 1.66 breaks.
• Low-probability trend failure (10–15%): Clean break below 1.66 opens 1.60–1.55 (61.8% Fib). This would question the breakout continuity in the very short term.

Risk management and trade plan

• Entry (limit buy): 1.78 (near Fib 38.2% + intraday demand). If price skips the dip and reclaims 1.84 with volume, a momentum add/on-break entry is viable; but the plan optimizes R:R by buying the dip.
• Invalidation/stop: 1.72 (beneath S2 and the Aug 15 intraday acceptance zone). If 1.72 breaks on volume, probability of a deeper pullback rises materially.
• Take profit (24h objective): 1.95 (near R2 extension band/upper BB path, below psychological 2.00 and before supply at the prior spike). Secondary TP for swing extension would be 2.05–2.15, but outside a strict 24h window.
• Risk/Reward: Entry 1.78, stop 1.72 (risk $0.06), TP 1.95 (reward $0.17) → ~2.8R. With ATR ~0.2, a 0.17 reward is achievable in one active session.

Catalyst and tape context (non-specific)

• The breakout likely came on a discrete catalyst (news/partnership/earnings). Post-catalyst bases that hold 38.2–50% retracements typically resume upward within 2–4 sessions provided volume doesn’t expand on down days—currently true.

Trigger conditions to watch (day-of execution)

• Bullish confirms: reclaim of 1.84 (micro range high), VWAP hold >1.82, then push through 1.86 (R1) opening the 1.90–1.92 pocket.
• Bearish warns: sustained trade <1.76 with building volume, VWAP fails, and a heavy tape into 1.72.

Bottom line

• The confluence of 38.2% Fib at 1.78, classical S1 at 1.75, gap support, and fading downside momentum suggests the path of least resistance is an attempt higher toward 1.90–1.95 in the next 24 hours. Strategy is to buy the dip with a tight stop and aim for the upper end of the near-term range before the 2.00 supply wall.