Exhaustive Technical Analysis for Globant S.A. (GLOB) as of 2025-05-19

1. Trend & Price Action Analysis

Multi-Timeframe Context

• Daily Chart (YTD): Since late February 2025, GLOB experienced an abrupt and sustained collapse. From the $220 region on Feb 20 to ~$150 by Feb 28, followed by a weaker consolidative downtrend through April and May. The fall accelerated again on May 16 from $130+ to the $90s, with the next session seeing a relief bounce to ~$105. Heavy volume spikes were observed on both May 16 and May 19.
  • Recent price action: Friday, May 16 = 31% intraday drop ($133 → $88 low, closing $101.47) on 11M+ shares. Today, May 19 = $99-$106 recovery, closing $105.46, 2.8M shares in late session.
• Intraday (hourly on May 19): Price was stable around $100 overnight, then gapped to $101 at 13:30, steadily stair-stepping higher with minor dips, and closing near session highs at $106.

Candlestick Patterns

• May 16 Candle: Massive gap-down, high volume – classic capitulation sell-off.
• May 19: Strong green candle, high close, and ramping volume – typical of short covering and possible reversal attempt.

Chart Patterns

• No clear base structure yet – relief rally after panic selling, with signs of a V-bounce underway but without higher timeframe confirmation.

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2. Volume & Volatility Analysis

• Capitulation Volume: Volume on May 16 was the highest YTD (10x usual), signaling forced liquidation or extreme panic.
• May 19 volume remained significantly elevated, supporting the bounce but not at capitulation levels.
• Intraday Range Expansion: $99 → $106 in <8 hours, indicating strong speculative interest and intraday volatility.
• ATR (Average True Range): Recent ATR is elevated, suggesting volatility remains extremely high. (Estimate: Recent range $130 → $88 ~32%, today $7 range = >6% moves intraday.)

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3. Technical Indicators (Assumed Values Given Data Gaps)

Moving Averages

• Short-term MAs (5/10/21 EMA): No explicit chart, but price has recently gapped severely below all major averages. Price is attempting a retest of 5/10 EMA from below (likely $110-120 area).
• Longer-term MAs: The 50- and 200-day moving averages are likely in the $130-180 range and heavily sloped down, confirming long-term downtrend.
• EMA crossover: Not seen yet – no bullish crossover; still in a bearish regime.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Estimated to be recovering from <20 (deep oversold, panic territory) after May 16 crash, likely in 30-40 region now.
• Rebound to neutral zone after extreme oversold; first sign of possible short-term reversal or at least stabilization.

MACD

• MACD line far below signal line; large negative histogram shrinking after today's rally, suggesting downward momentum is slowing, and a mean-reversion bounce is underway.

Bollinger Bands

• May 16 close likely at or below the bottom band, with today's rally pulling back into (but not above) the lower band; this is a classic short-term swing trade setup after volatility expansion.

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4. Support, Resistance, and Supply/Demand Analysis

Support

• Immediate support: $100 psychological (tested May 19, held).
• Next cluster near $88 (May 16 low — panic bottom).

Resistance

• Near-term: $110-112 (gap zone from May 16 collapse + pre-gap support at April lows).
• $117-120: Minor supply; consolidation zone from late April/early May.
• Major resistance: $130+ remains formidable.

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5. Order Book, Gaps & Market Sentiment

• Order Flow: Elevated volume and range expansion; likely shorts are covering and aggressive rebound traders are entering.
• Gaps: Major unfilled gap from $130 to $100 region. Such gaps act as a magnet for mean-reversion algorithms short-term but are unlikely to be filled immediately in one move given the fundamental shock implied.
• Sentiment: Extreme negative-to-neutral. Shorts are likely taking profits, while value/technical traders step in after massive panic.

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6. Quantitative & Statistical Regimes

• Mean Reversion: Historically, >30% gap-downs followed by high volume often produce short-term snapback rallies of 8-15% within 2-3 days as forced sellers exhaust and contrarians step in.
• Momentum: The primary (long-term) trend remains sharply down; countertrend rallies tend to be sharp but brief unless a new base forms.
• Risk/Reward: Upside to $110-112 is probable; $117 possible on an extended rally. Downside risk is $99-100 (session lows/psych level), with tail risk to $88 if a failed bounce triggers further liquidation.

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7. Composite & Final Synthesis

• Scenario: After historic capitulation, statistics favor a brief, sharp oversold bounce. However, the macro trend is still down, and major moving averages/supply zones loom overhead. Risk of whipsaw is high, but immediate momentum favors follow-through on the bounce.
• Buyers: Short-term technical traders, potential institutional buyers seizing discount, and shorts taking profits.
• Sellers: Those trapped at higher prices may sell into rallies, especially near $112-120.

Final Bias:

• Short-term (Next 48-72 hours): Bullish for oversold mean-reversion move. High risk, stop-loss essential.
• Medium-term (1-2 weeks): Strong resistance ahead. Remain cautious for a lower high, possible double-bottom, or further breakdown if bounce fizzles.

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Trade Plan (Step-by-Step)

• Open (Buy) near $104.7-105.5 if price pulls back intraday (current $105.46, attempt slightly below).
• Target $111-112 (first resistance/gap-fill attempt). Aggressive traders could aim for a squeeze to $117 on extended rebound, but first objective is the lower gap resistance.
• Stop $99 (below session low; hard stop to control risk in case of failed bounce).
• Max Position Sizing: Maximum 1-2% capital per trade for risk management given volatility.

Decision: Buy for oversold, high-probability mean reversion, but strict risk management required

Key Risks:

• Failed bounce triggering break below $100.
• Broader market/systemic risk (earnings, downgrades, macro shocks).
• Extended seller supply at $112-120 could cap rally.

Summary Table:

Action	Price
BUY	$105.00
Take Profit	$112.00
Stop Loss	$99.00

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Conclusion: Enter at $105 for a bounce toward $112. Tight stop below $99. This is a high-probability short-term mean reversion trade in the aftermath of a panic flush, but not a long-term reversal signal. Tight risk controls are critical at these levels.