GRYP Shock Reset: Tactical Oversold Bounce Setup Toward 1.55–1.60 in the Next 24 Hours

Summary and context

• Ticker: GRYP (Gryphon Digital Mining, Inc.) | Currency: USD
• Current price (last): 1.38
• Recent closes before the data gap: largely between 5.5–7.5 with episodic spikes (notably 8/28 close 8.60 on very high volume), 8/29 close 7.70, 9/2 close 6.90. Then two null sessions (9/3–9/4) and a sudden current price of 1.38 on 9/5.
• Immediate takeaway: there is a severe discontinuity between 6.90 (9/2 close) and current 1.38. That almost certainly reflects a material corporate action (e.g., deeply discounted equity offering/dilution, compliance event, symbol/float-change) or an extreme event-related gap down. Technical indicators spanning the discontinuity must be handled with caution; however, short-horizon mean-reversion and gap-exhaustion tactics are still applicable.

Rigorous step-by-step analysis

1. Data integrity and regime shift check

• The null days followed by an 80%+ apparent price compression is atypical for ordinary trading and suggests corporate action. If this is a forward split/float increase or a large capital raise at a low offering price, the tape often gravitates around the offering/VWAP level initially, with undercut-and-rip dynamics around that anchor.
• Conclusion: treat 1.30–1.50 as a new regime price zone with no meaningful historical volume memory at these levels. Overhead supply from 5–9 is now extremely far away in price; in the next 24h, supply overhead will matter indirectly via sentiment, not via immediate level-by-level resistance.

2. Structural trend and market phase (pre-gap)

• From June through late August the stock oscillated in a broad 5.25–7.50 band with episodic momentum bursts (5/12 blow-off to 14.65 intraday with 54M volume; 8/28 expansion from 6.70 to 9.00 high with 9.8M volume). The trend into 9/2 (6.90 close) was mildly weakening after the 8/28 spike.
• This background suggests the name is event-driven and volatility-prone; it responds to catalysts and liquidity waves. That increases the probability of sharp mean reversion moves post-shock.

3. Support/resistance and price geometry at the new regime

• Psychological round levels: 1.00, 1.25, 1.50, 1.75, 2.00.
• Local pivots to watch in the next session (derived from microstructure norms rather than legacy levels):
  • Support cluster: 1.24–1.30 (washout zone; prior prints often gravitate to “quarters” around 1.25/1.50).
  • Pivot/magnet: 1.35–1.45 (likely tether to any offering/VWAP if a dilution event occurred; even without confirmed offering, this mid zone tends to become a price magnet post-crash day).
  • Resistance band: 1.55–1.65 (first profit-taking zone on reflex bounces).
  • Stretch target on strong squeeze: 1.75–1.85.

4. Candlestick and gap analysis

• The discontinuity implies a breakaway gap down. Such gaps frequently see:
  • Day 1: capitulation + discovery; Day 2: reflex bounce toward the anchored VWAP of the gap day.
  • If the shock was a financing priced near 1.40, price often oscillates just below/above that price as supply is absorbed.
• Expect a “weak open → undercut → reclaim → grind to VWAP” type pattern if buyers emerge. Conversely, if it fails 1.25 decisively with persistent sell pressure, a liquidity air pocket to ~1.10 can appear.

5. Moving averages (SMA/EMA) and their applicability

• 20D SMA pre-gap ~6.2–6.5; 50D ~6.0–6.3 (approximate from the July–Aug range). At 1.38, price is 75%+ below these MAs—far outside their normal influence.
• In such discontinuities, MAs are not actionable as dynamic support/resistance for the next 24h. However, their large separation quantifies extreme dislocation, which statistically favors at least a short-term mean reversion attempt.

6. Bollinger Bands and Z-score (mean reversion lens)

• Using a rough 20D mean ~6.3 and a typical pre-gap daily std dev ~0.35–0.45, the lower 2σ band would have been ~5.5. Current price at 1.38 is far beyond a 4–5σ excursion relative to that regime—indicative of event-driven outlier.
• Such extreme tail events often see a 1–2 day partial reversion toward a new equilibrium (not necessarily back toward 6), but toward the new-day VWAP/anchor around 1.40–1.55.

7. RSI and stochastic oscillators

• RSI(14) in the legacy regime would read “single digits” to low teens given the magnitude of the gap—deeply oversold. Stochastics would also be pinned low. Oversold does not guarantee immediate rebound, but it increases bounce odds once selling pressure abates.

8. MACD

• MACD will be profoundly negative due to the discontinuity and will lag. In the first 24h after the shock, MACD is less informative. The main read is “bearish momentum extreme,” which again supports the possibility of a reflexive pop when sellers tire.

9. ATR and volatility assessment

• Pre-gap ATR(14) ~0.45–0.70 in absolute dollars. With the new price base at 1.38, the percent ATR becomes massive (30–50%+). Expect wide intraday ranges and potential halts if liquidity is thin.
• For planning: a 20–25% intraday swing is plausible (e.g., 1.25–1.55 baseline range), with tail risk into 1.10 or 1.75 on extremes.

10. Volume analysis and OBV

• Historic bursts (5/12, 7/2, 8/28) show the stock can absorb and propagate large liquidity events. OBV into the gap would have been flat-to-down, reflecting distribution in the 6.5–7.5 zone.
• For the next session, watch real-time volume vs. 5-min VWAP. Early heavy buy imbalance with VWAP rising favors a squeeze toward 1.55–1.65. Persistent below-VWAP trading with increasing volume raises risk of a 1.20–1.25 undercut.

11. Anchored VWAP (AVWAP)

• Anchoring to 8/28 (8.60 close): well above; not actionable immediately.
• Anchoring to the gap day (the first session at the new regime, likely today): tomorrow’s session will respect that AVWAP. If the first hour holds AVWAP (likely ~1.38–1.48 depending on open), the price tends to grind higher; failure below AVWAP with repeated rejections implies lower lows test.

12. Fibonacci perspective (for context only)

• Using the 8/28 high (9.00) to 9/2 close (6.90), the 1.618 extension projects ~6.1—a level now irrelevant after the event shock. The magnitude of the move to 1.38 is well beyond conventional fib extensions, underscoring an exogenous driver. Thus, fibs are not primary for the next 24h.

13. Ichimoku Cloud

• Price would be far below cloud baseline and conversion lines. In such a discontinuity, Ichimoku simply signals strong bearish trend; however, it is typically late in detecting reflex bounces within the first session post-shock.

14. Market microstructure and tape expectations for next 24 hours

• Likely sequences:
  • Scenario A (probable 55–60%): Weak open around 1.35, quick liquidity sweep to 1.28–1.32, reclaim of 1.35, push toward 1.50–1.60 into mid-day as VWAP rises; late-day consolidation 1.45–1.55.
  • Scenario B (35–40%): Persistent below-VWAP sell pressure, early loss of 1.28, slide to 1.18–1.22, tepid bounce to 1.30–1.35 into close.
  • Scenario C (low probability 10–15%): News-driven squeeze; immediate bid above 1.55, momentum ignites to 1.70–1.85 before fading.
• Catalysts: Bitcoin beta is relevant (as a miner, GRYP correlates with BTC). A firm BTC session strengthens the bounce thesis; BTC weakness could push to Scenario B.

15. Statistical/quant signal synthesis

• Oversold extremes (RSI/Z-score), outside lower Bollinger bound, and a regime reset typically favor a day-1 or day-2 reflex rally toward new AVWAP.
• Given the current price of 1.38 and the common behavior around discounted offerings/large gaps, a tactical long targeting 1.55–1.60 offers favorable short-horizon expectancy with a tight risk control.

16. Risk management and execution tactics

• Optimal entry: near the washout/pivot zone 1.30–1.35, using a limit or a buy-stop on reclaim of 1.36 after a dip. For a defined plan, a staged approach: scale in 50% at 1.33, 50% at 1.28 if offered; average ~1.305. For the single-price requirement, 1.33 is a realistic limit to aim for a fill.
• Stop discipline (not asked but crucial): below 1.22 (the round-number shelf and likely liquidity pocket). Risk ~0.11 per share from a 1.33 fill.
• Target: 1.58 (first resistance band midpoint). Reward ~0.25 vs. 0.11 risk ≈ 2.3:1 R:R.
• If price gaps up and opens >1.48, the risk/reward for a new long deteriorates; prefer waiting for a pullback toward 1.40–1.45 or stand aside.

17. What would invalidate the long idea?

• Persistent below-VWAP drift with failed reclaim attempts and rising volume; decisive break <1.22 without swift reversal; broad crypto risk-off day.

24-hour price prediction

• Expected range: 1.25–1.65
• Bias: Mean-reversion bounce with settlement closer to 1.46–1.54 if BTC and market are neutral or better.
• Path: early undercut (1.28–1.33) → reclaim 1.35–1.40 → grind to 1.50–1.60 → fade to 1.46–1.52 into the close.

Final synthesis

• The event-driven gap is extreme enough to justify a tactical, tightly risk-managed long aimed at a reflex pop back toward 1.55–1.60, anchored around new-session VWAP/offer-price magnet. Not a swing thesis; this is a 24-hour bounce play with strict stops.