Exhaustive Multi-Layer Technical Analysis of Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)

1. Price Action and Intraday Structure

• Market Regime Shift: On June 23, 2025, HIMS plunged abruptly from the $62-64 range in the early hours to close at $41.98 in the after-hours. The primary plunge occurs during the 11:00-12:00 interval, where the price crashes from ~$64 to as low as $47.75.
• Volume Surge: The total daily volume is massive at 172M shares, far above recent averages, strongly suggesting a major liquidation or news/event catalyst.
• Candle Analysis: Multiple long-bodied red candles present throughout June 23, especially between 13:30 and 15:30, signaling large-scale selling. No pronounced hammer/doji reversal candle is seen into the close, indicating a lack of buyer commitment at support.

2. Trend Analysis

• Short-Term (1-5 Days): Prior to June 23, HIMS traded in a strong uptrend from $55 to $64, culminating in a steep, sudden reversal. This forms an island top reversal and gap-down setup—both bearish.
• Medium-Term (1-2 Months): The stock showed volatility spikes in April and May but each drawdown, especially in late April to early May, saw V-shaped recoveries. However, June’s move is sharper, on higher volume, and breaches recent support areas with no immediate reversal, implying greater structural damage.

3. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Historical Support: Key previous support levels:
  • $55: Last breached on gap down, not held.
  • $40-$43: Next major cluster from March/early April — near current closing.
  • $29-$36: Significant volume base from April — next support should $40 fail.
• Resistance Levels:
  • $44-$46: Immediate resistance (prior intraday highs on June 23).
  • $48-$50: Secondary resistance formed post-crash intraday.

4. Moving Average Analysis

• 50-Day/200-Day SMAs: While raw values aren't given, the crash below the last three months' trading range almost guarantees a breach of the 50-SMA, and possibly the 200-SMA (which would be in the $39-$42 area based on recent price behavior). Breaches of major SMAs typically invite systematic/programmatic selling.

5. Bollinger Bands & Volatility Analysis

• Bollinger Bands: The June 23 move represents an extreme outside-the-band event. Normally, price at or beyond 2 standard deviations is at risk of mean-reversion. However, because the move is backed by event volume and massive red candle clusters, it is more likely to see continued volatility (expanding band scenario)—i.e., more downside risk or at best, whippy bottoming.

6. Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Momentum Oscillators

• RSI: Given the rapid selloff, RSI is likely deeply oversold (<20), but in such capitulation moves RSI can stay oversold for longer, especially after major structure breaks.
• MACD: Would have crossed bearish with strong divergence given a multi-session uptrend reversal.

7. Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Key Levels: From the May high ($65) to the post-crash low ($42), 23.6% and 38.2% retracements for a dead-cat bounce are $48.17 and $51.32, aligning with overhead resistance and gap-zones.
• Trade Expectation: Sharp bear markets often see bounces to these fib-levels before further declines.

8. Volume Profile and Market Microstructure

• Point of Control (POC): Volume-at-price for the last 3 months suggests large congestion in the $40-$44 and $55-$64 regions. Today’s breakdown eviscerated all recent long positions, turning former support into fresh resistance.
• Intraday Volume: Oversized sell volume into each major dip, then smaller reactive buying—classic sign of institutional dumping.

9. Gap Analysis

• Open Gap Down: The gap from $64->$48 on June 23 is unlikely to fill immediately. Gaps of this nature almost always act as magnets for further selling, especially absent a news-driven reversal catalyst.

10. Pattern Recognition

• Island Top & Gap-Down: The rapid gap after a parabolic rise is a textbook exhaustion move. These often signal intermediate-to-long term tops.
• No Double Bottom or Reversal Yet: After the sharp selloff, price drifted sideways below $44 with no attempt at a deep bounce—the structure is not stable for longs.

11. Cross-Sectional and Sentiment Analysis

• Event Catalysts: Given the magnitude of the move and volume, likely a negative event (earnings, regulatory, or major downgrade).
• Sentiment: Panic selling, fear-driven with no bottom yet confirmed. Risk of more forced liquidations.

12. Option Market Context (Implied Volatility Proxy)

• Volatility: Implied volatility likely spiked; the size and speed of movement would result in outsized option premiums. This can attract more speculative positioning (gamma flows), increasing day-to-day volatility.

Final Combined Outlook and 24-Hour Price Prediction

• Bearish Bias: Extreme break in market structure and trend. Panic selling is not finished; price is likely to test the early April/late March support zones: $40 (psychological), then $36.
• Bounce Odds: Only minimal bounce potential to $44-$45 where more resistance lies—it would likely be sold.

Conclusion: Sell/Short is Optimal

All technical indicators, trend analysis, volume structure, and psychological levels point to a high-probability continuation to the downside for at least the next 24 hours. Absent a sharp reversal/catalyst, the path of least resistance is lower.

Optimal Order Placement:

• Sell/Short open at $41.98-$42.10: If a slight bounce to $42 happens at open, that is an even better entry.
• Target/Close at $36.10: This is a logical next support/snapback area with high volume history, just above March’s consolidation lows.
• Risk Stop: If aggressive, stops may be set just above $46 (intraday post-plunge highs), but not needed for this analysis.

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Summary Table:

• Trade Type: Sell (Short Position)
• Open Price: $41.98 ($42.10 if gap-up at open)
• Take Profit/Close Price: $36.10
• Bias: Strongly Bearish

WARNING: Highly volatile scenario, position size accordingly!