HIVE: Oversold Double Bottom at $2 Sets Up a Snapback to $2.20 — Buy the Dip

Summary snapshot

• Instrument: HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd (HIVE)
• Current price: $2.07 (as of 2025-08-09)
• Timeframe analyzed: Last ~4 months of daily data, with emphasis on the most recent 4–6 weeks; intraday pivots from the latest session
• Objective: Predict next 24 hours and form a tactical trading plan

1. Market structure and trend context

• Multi-month context: From mid-April (~$1.45) HIVE advanced into a July peak around $2.50 (7/22), then entered a corrective downswing into early August. The current price sits roughly 17% below the July high, but above the May/June base (1.75–2.05), suggesting a pullback within a larger up-leg rather than a full downtrend reversal.
• Short-term trend: Lower highs since 7/22 (2.50 → 2.40 → 2.35 → 2.27 → 2.22 → 2.19 → 2.14 → 2.12 → 2.10) establish a descending channel. Price has now probed the prior support cluster around 2.03–2.07 multiple times and is showing stabilization.
• Key takeaway: Short-term downtrend, testing a major support shelf near $2.00–2.07 that coincides with the May/June breakout area.

2. Support, resistance, and price levels (confluence-driven)

• Immediate support: 2.03–2.07 (Aug 1 and Aug 8 lows near 2.03–2.04; multiple closes ~2.07). Psychological and round-number support at 2.00.
• Resistance ladders: 2.12–2.14 (local swing cap 8/6–7 and 7/31 close), 2.20–2.22 (20-day mean and Fibonacci 38.2%), 2.27 (50% retrace and late-July congestion), 2.32 (61.8% retrace and mid-July supply), 2.40 and 2.50 (major supply tops).
• Daily floor-trader pivots (from 8/8: H=2.14, L=2.04, C=2.07):
  • Pivot P ≈ 2.083
  • S1 ≈ 2.027; S2 ≈ 1.983
  • R1 ≈ 2.127; R2 ≈ 2.183
• Confluence: R1 (~2.127) aligns with the 2.12–2.14 resistance and the double-bottom neckline; R2 (~2.18) aligns with mean-reversion targets and the next heavy node before 2.20–2.22.

3. Moving averages and mean-reversion gauges

• 10-day SMA: ≈ 2.12 (price below) → near-term pressure but close enough that a small bounce reclaims it.
• 20-day SMA: ≈ 2.20 (price below) → signals a pullback; this level aligns with R2/Fibo targets and should act as magnet on bounce.
• 50-day SMA: ≈ 2.05–2.10 (price roughly at/just above) → important dynamic support; price testing but not decisively losing it.
• Alignment: 20-SMA (~2.20) is above 50-SMA (~2.08), a constructive medium-term backdrop even as price sits below the 20-day. Suggests corrective phase within a still-positive intermediate trend.

4. Oscillators and momentum

• RSI(14): Estimated ~19–20 after a series of declines from 2.50 to ~2.03 and a muted bounce. Deeply oversold, historically associated with short-term bounces.
• Stochastic: Likely sub-20, curling; commonly produces mean-reversion signals when combined with support confluence.
• MACD(12,26,9): Negative but the downside momentum has been decelerating since the 8/1 low. Histogram likely narrowing—early sign of momentum troughing.
• OBV/Volume tone: Heavy distribution into late July/early August, but volumes have tapered in recent days, often preceding stabilization and bounce attempts near key supports.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14): ~0.14 (6–7% of price) → defines a typical daily swing range.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid near 2.20; estimated lower band around 1.94 and upper band ~2.46. Price has been operating in the lower quartile, flirting with the lower band last week—favors mean reversion toward the mid-band on a bounce.
• Keltner Channels: Price near/under the lower envelope recently; when paired with oversold RSI, this tends to bias toward reversion rather than expansion lower unless a catalyst hits.

6. Pattern analysis

• Double bottom setup: Lows near 2.03–2.04 on 8/1 and 8/8. Neckline ~2.12–2.14. Measured move ~0.08–0.10 → objective ~2.20–2.22. This aligns tightly with the 20-day SMA and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement.
• Descending channel/falling wedge: The sequence of lower highs has compressed ranges, resembling a falling wedge; break above ~2.12–2.14 would validate a short-term reversal toward 2.20–2.22.
• Candlesticks: Recent small-bodied candles near support (spin-top-like) reflect indecision and potential exhaustion after a multi-week decline.

7. Fibonacci mapping (7/22 high to 8/1 low)

• Swing: 2.50 → 2.03 (Δ = 0.47)
• 23.6%: ~2.14 (matches first resistance)
• 38.2%: ~2.21 (aligns with 20-SMA and measured double-bottom target)
• 50%: ~2.27 (next objective after 2.20–2.22)
• 61.8%: ~2.32 (upper resistance cluster) This layered confluence strengthens the 2.12–2.22 rebound path if support holds.

8. Statistical/quant perspectives

• Mean-reversion bias: Price at the lower tail of the 20-session distribution with deep RSI and small-bodied candles near structural support implies a positive skew for a bounce toward the mean (~2.20) within 1–2 ATRs.
• 24h expectancy: With ATR ~0.14, a move from ~2.05–2.07 to ~2.18–2.21 fits a 1–1.2 ATR rebound; risk of a 1 ATR downside swing to ~1.93–1.98 exists if 2.00 breaks, but probabilities favor at least testing pivot/R1 first.

9. Ichimoku (approximate, qualitative)

• Price remains below Tenkan and Kijun (both likely near 2.12–2.20), indicating short-term resistance overhead; however, a quick reclaim of Tenkan (~2.12) would often trigger a test of Kijun (~2.20). Cloud context not critical here; the key is the Tenkan/Kijun clamp right where our neckline and SMA-20 sit.

10. DeMark/Exhaustion flavor (qualitative)

• The sequence of persistent down closes into 8/1 followed by a weak drift lower into 8/8 often completes a TD Buy setup around bars 8–9. This supports the idea of downside exhaustion coincident with structural support.

11. Volume profile and liquidity nodes

• Heavier participation zones visible around 2.20–2.27 and again 2.32–2.40 (prior consolidations), with a lighter pocket around 2.12–2.18. If price breaches the 2.12–2.14 lid, it can traverse quickly into 2.18–2.22 before encountering meaningful supply.

12. Risk factors and correlations

• HIVE tends to correlate with crypto-beta (BTC/ETH). While we’re not incorporating external price feeds here, be aware that weekend crypto volatility can influence Monday’s open. This adds gap risk both directions; hence the importance of placing buy limits near support and planning risk below $2.00.

13. Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Stabilize above 2.03–2.07, push through 2.12–2.14 neckline, extend to 2.18–2.22 (1–1.2 ATR). Close near 2.18–2.20.
• Bear case (25%): Early dip tests S1 (2.03) and pierces to S2 (1.98) on risk-off tape; quick flush finds buyers back toward 2.05. Close ~2.02–2.06.
• Chop case (20%): Range trade 2.03–2.12 without resolution; close near pivot (2.08–2.10).

14. Trade plan construction

• Rationale: Multiple-tool confluence (RSI oversold, double-bottom at 2.03–2.04, pivot/SMA/neckline alignments, tapered volume) favors a tactical long for a mean-reversion pop.
• Entry: Use a buy-limit near 2.05 (just above S1 and within the 2.03–2.07 support shelf) to optimize risk-reward and execution on potential early weakness.
• Profit objective: 2.20 (alignment with 20-SMA, Fib 38.2%, R2 zone and double-bottom measured move). Realistic for a 1-day move given ATR.
• Risk reference (not part of order fields, but critical): Stop below 1.98 (under S2 and the $2.00 round number) to avoid getting trapped in a breakdown. This frames roughly +0.15 upside vs -0.07 downside → ~2.1:1 R:R.
• Alternate trigger (if no pullback): Momentum add-on above 2.14 breakout (neckline) targeting 2.20–2.22; however, primary plan prefers the buy-limit for superior R:R.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Expect an oversold bounce attempt from the $2.03–2.07 shelf. A push through 2.12–2.14 opens room to 2.18–2.22 in the next session. Risk is a clean break of $2.00; absent that, the path of least resistance near-term is upward toward the 20-day mean.

Actionable call

• Bias: Buy (Long)
• Open (Buy-limit): 2.05
• Close (Take-profit): 2.20
• Reference stop (for risk control, not in output fields): 1.98