Gold Rush on the Highs: HMY’s Breakout Poised for a Dip-and-Rip Toward 17.75

Comprehensive multi-lens technical read on HMY (Harmony Gold Mining) using daily + last-hour data

1. Price action and structure

• Regime shift: Friday (2025-09-19) printed a powerful trend day up, closing at the high (C=16.88, H=16.88) with a 10%+ advance from the prior cluster and a 2.0+ USD intraday range. This is a classic “expansion day” that often precedes short-term follow-through.
• Context: After the late-August volatility shock (12.61 low on 2025-08-28) HMY carved a V-shaped recovery, then built a multi-week base between ~14.6 and ~15.5. The breakout through the August swing high zone (~16.0 area from 2025-08-06) converts that region into support.
• After-hours tape: Prints near 16.85–16.88 with zero sign of immediate distribution; price pinned near the high typically suggests demand into the close and limited profit-taking.

2. Trend analysis (multiple moving averages)

• 20-DMA (approx): Sloping up and likely clustered around ~15.0–15.2. Price is meaningfully above it, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
• 50-DMA (approx): Rising ~14.6–14.8; price is well above, indicating healthy intermediate uptrend.
• 100-DMA (approx): Flatter but lifting; price trading multiple ATRs above longer MAs signals strong trend impulse.
• Alignment: Short > medium > long MAs (bullish stack). Price > all key MAs.

3. Momentum (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• RSI(14) (approx): Elevated (low-to-mid 70s). That is technically “overbought,” but in breakout phases overbought is a feature, not a bug; it often stays pinned while price grinds higher.
• MACD: Positive cross already in place; Friday’s wide range likely expanded the histogram sharply, confirming momentum acceleration.
• Stochastics: Likely embedded >80, consistent with a trend day and supports the “buy-the-dip” rather than fade-the-pop approach for the next session.

4. Volatility and bands (ATR, Bollinger, Keltner)

• ATR(14): Rising, reflecting a volatility regime change. Expect wider intraday swings next session.
• Bollinger Bands: Price riding the upper band with a noticeable bandwidth expansion (volatility breakout). In such regimes, pullbacks to the 8–10 EMA or mid-band often get bought quickly.
• Keltner Channels: Price likely above upper channel—classic trend extension. A modest mean reversion toward the channel edge (~16.3–16.6) would be a tactical dip-buy zone.

5. Volume, participation, and breadth (OBV/volume analysis)

• Volume: 26.5M on the breakout vs recent daily averages near 4–7M = 4x+ surge, a hallmark of institutional participation. Breakouts on volume tend to see 1–3 days of follow-through more often than not.
• OBV (qualitative): Uptrend with a step-function higher on the breakout day; this supports the sustainability of the move.

6. Market profile/VWAP and execution context

• Session character: Trend day up; VWAP likely trailed under price most of the session and ended ~16.3–16.6 (est.). First pullback toward late-day VWAP/POC is frequently bought on the next session open.
• Anchored VWAP from the August 28 capitulation low likely resides ~15.5–15.8; price comfortably above, indicating most longs are in the money.

7. Pattern diagnostics

• Base–breakout: Multi-week base (14.6–15.5) resolved higher. Measured move from the base height (~0.9) projects ~16.4; price overshot, which indicates momentum strength and invites an extension target methodology (Fibonacci/extensions) for next legs.
• Gap-and-go potential: Friday’s close on the high plus elevated volume increases odds of a continuation attempt early next session, though some early shakeout is common.

8. Fibonacci mapping (for next-resistance targeting)

• Swing low to prior high: 12.61 (2025-08-28) to 16.02 (2025-08-06) = 3.41. After a mid-September handle (~14.95), Friday extended above 16.02.
• Extensions from the 14.95 pivot: 1.272 ≈ 16.02 + (1.272*(16.02–14.95)) ≈ 17.37; 1.618 ≈ ~17.75–17.85. These align with round-number psychology and are attractive profit-taking markers.

9. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• Count suggests we’re in a minor wave 3 of a larger degree impulse off the late-August low. Expect a shallow wave 4 consolidation (sideways to down into ~16.3–16.6) followed by a wave 5 push into ~17.6–17.9. This harmonizes with the Fibonacci extension cluster.

10. Wyckoff lens

• Accumulation → Markup: The base showed signs of absorption; Friday was a Sign of Strength (SOS) with price closing at high on heavy volume. Next logical step: a minor Backing-Up to the Edge of the Creek (BUC) toward breakout levels (16.0–16.4) before continuation. Shallow tests favor bullish continuations.

11. Support/resistance map (confluence levels)

• Immediate resistance: 17.00 (psychological), 17.35–17.40 (Fib 1.272 cluster), 17.75–17.85 (Fib 1.618/round cluster), then 18.00 (round).
• Near-term support: 16.60–16.65 (late-day value area/estimated VWAP), 16.30–16.40 (trend-day pullback zone), 16.00–16.05 (former swing high, now support), 15.45–15.50 (recent pivot), 14.95 (handle low/cluster).

12. Risk factors and what would invalidate

• Exhaustion gap risk: Always present after a large expansion day. However, absence of late-day selloff and AH stability reduces odds of immediate failure.
• Macro sensitivity: As a gold miner, HMY is leveraged to gold price moves and USD dynamics; unexpected weekend macro headlines could gap price on Monday.
• Invalidation for near-term bull: A fast loss/rejection of 16.00 on heavy volume would convert the breakout into a bull trap. That’s not base case, but it’s the key line in the sand for short-term traders.

13. 24-hour directional bias and path

• Probability-weighted path: Slight dip on next open toward 16.6 ± 0.1, buyers defend, push to test 17.0–17.1. If that breaks, momentum likely carries toward 17.35, with an upside spike attempt into 17.7–17.9 where supply should emerge.
• Alternate path: If open gaps above 17.2, expect an early squeeze up to 17.5–17.8, followed by a mid-day fade back to ~17.1–17.3.
• Bear path (lower probability): Fail at 17.0, rotate to 16.3–16.4 test. Only a decisive break of 16.0 would flip bias.

14. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Primary tactic: Buy-the-dip into 16.6 area (limit buy) to align with trend and capture the next extension toward 17.7–17.9. That’s the highest R-multiple entry given Friday’s profile.
• Secondary tactic: Momentum add-on if we see a clean break and hold above 16.95–17.00 with rising volume (breakout continuation).
• Take-profit logic: Scale near 17.35 (partial) and target 17.75 for the core (Fib 1.618 and round-number cluster). For this instruction, we’ll specify the primary TP as the close target.
• Stop (contextual, not requested in fields): Below 16.00 on a closing basis for swing; intraday tactical stop ~16.25 if executing the 16.60 dip-buy.

15. Confluence checklist

• Trend: Up across timeframes (check)
• Momentum: Expanding (check)
• Volume: Expansion confirming breakout (check)
• Structure: Base break, close at HOD (check)
• Levels: Clear support at 16.0–16.6; upside targets at 17.35 and 17.75 (check)
• Tape/AH: No distribution into close/AH (check)

Conclusion: Expect bullish continuation over the next 24 hours (next trading session). Optimal execution is a pullback buy around 16.60 with a target toward 17.75.