Hut 8 Corp. Price Analysis Powered by AI

HUT poised for a Day‑2 Gap‑Fill: Buying the 78.6% Bounce with Tight Risk

Executive summary

Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish for a day‑2 rebound toward 42.3–43.7, provided 38.9 support holds.
Optimal trade: Buy the dip near 40.1–40.3 (VWAP/back‑test zone) for a push into the 61.8% gap‑retrace band around 43.3–43.6. Invalidate on decisive break <38.7.

Market context and character

Regime shift: HUT printed a capitulatory down day on 2025-10-22 (−17% close, 18.6M volume, low 36.2) after a parabolic run into 10/15 (high 57.29). Today (10/23) it formed an “inside day” consolidation with a constructive green close at 40.64 (O=39.05, H=41.78, L=38.19, C=40.64; vol ~6.42M at 21:00Z), signaling absorption of supply and the possibility of a day‑2 bounce.
Crypto beta: As a BTC‑levered miner, HUT’s next 24h path is sensitive to overnight BTC. Base case assumes neutral to slightly positive BTC drift; a sharp BTC selloff would negate the bounce.

Price structure and trend diagnostics

Trend stack (approx):
- 10D SMA ≈ 47.0 (price below; short‑term downtrend).
- 20D SMA ≈ 43.1 (price below; below mid‑term mean, favors mean reversion targets around 42–43 if bounce persists).
- 50D SMA (est.) ≈ low‑to‑mid 30s (price above; longer‑term uptrend intact despite pullback).
Interpretation: Short‑term bearish within a still‑elevated longer‑term trend. After a high‑volatility drawdown, mean reversion rallies commonly test the 20D and key retracement bands.

Support/Resistance map (multi‑timeframe)

Immediate supports: 40.0–40.3 (today’s VWAP/back‑test cluster), 39.6 (hourly pivot), 38.9 (78.6% retrace/prev close), 38.2 (today’s low), 36.2 (capitulation low, major line‑in‑the‑sand).
Overhead resistances: 41.5–41.8 (today’s high and intraday supply), 42.1–42.2 (daily 61.8% retrace from 53.91 swing), 43.3–43.6 (gap‑fill band and 61.8% retrace of 10/21→10/22 drop), 44.6 (10/8 high), 46.3–46.9 (10/9 close/10/21 close; top of the gap and heavy supply).

Momentum and oscillators

RSI(14) daily (est.): low‑to‑mid 30s after the crash, ticking up today; in “oversold bounce” territory. Room to extend before midline rejection (50) near 42–44.
MACD (12,26,9) daily (qualitative): Negative and below signal after the breakdown; histogram contraction today suggests selling pressure is easing. A day‑2 positive histogram print is plausible if price pushes through 41.8.
Stochastics: Likely turning up from oversold; early-cycle bounce signal.

Volatility and range framework

ATR(14) daily (est.): elevated ~5±1 given recent 8–10 point ranges. Expect a 24h envelope roughly 38.5–43.5 under base case.
Keltner Channels (20,2xATR): Price below midline; a magnet to the midline near 42–43 on continuation.
Bollinger Bands (20,2σ): Midline around the 20D SMA (~43.1). Lower band was tagged yesterday; a tag‑and‑revert setup supports mean reversion toward the midline.

Fibonacci confluence

From 9/30 C=34.81 to 10/15 H=53.91 (range 19.10):
- 38.2% = 46.61 (lost), 50% = 44.36 (lost), 61.8% = 42.09 (tested/rejected intraday), 78.6% = 38.89 (tagged yesterday’s close, defended today).
- Takeaway: 38.9 is a pivotal defense; holding above favors a rebound path into 42.1–43.5. A break below 38.9 risks a full retrace toward 34.8 over subsequent sessions.
Gap‑move 10/21→10/22 (46.92→36.20 drop = 10.72):
- 50% retrace = 41.28 (hit intraday), 61.8% = 43.54 (next magnet if 41.8 clears). Strong alignment with resistance band.

Volume, VWAP, and profile

10/22 volume spike (18.6M) looks like a selling climax; today’s lower volume inside day implies supply is being digested.
Intraday 10/23: Price oscillated above/below session VWAP but reclaimed and closed near it (~40.5–40.7 est.). A VWAP pin close after a higher low sequence (38.19 vs 36.2 prior day) is constructive for day‑2.
Volume profile (recent): High‑volume nodes around 39–40 and 41–42; a low‑volume pocket 42–43.3 suggests that a clean push through 41.8 can accelerate toward 43.3–43.6 before encountering heavier supply.

Candles and patterns

Daily inside day after a wide‑range down day: classic setup for a range expansion tomorrow. Directional bias tends to follow the break of today’s high/low (H=41.78, L=38.19). Given oversold conditions, probability skew favors an upside break if 40–40.3 holds early.
Intraday: Late session push to 41.53 failed at supply and faded to VWAP, signaling sellers defend 41.5–41.8. Expect initial probing of that zone next session.

Trend tools and overlays

Ichimoku (daily, approximations): Price below Tenkan and likely below Kijun (both ~mid‑40s), but above longer‑term cloud span from the September base. This indicates a corrective phase within an overarching uptrend; bounce attempts often revert toward the Kijun/Tenkan zone, starting with 42–44.
Parabolic SAR: Likely above price and trailing lower; a print >~43 would threaten a bullish flip in subsequent sessions.
Regression channel (from late Sep): Price fell below the prior rising channel; mean reversion retests the channel underside around 43–44.

Pattern/structure frameworks

Wyckoff lens: 10/22 = Selling Climax (SC), today = Automatic Rally (AR) to 41.8 and Secondary Test (ST) intraday near 39.7–40.0. Early accumulation traits; a push into 42–43.5 would complete AR testing.
DeMark Sequential: Likely completed a bearish 9 count into 10/22; day‑1 reaction today. Day‑2/3 follow‑through often targets the 50–61.8% retrace bands of the breakdown move (41.3–43.5).
Elliott wave (heuristic): Post 10/15 top, the A‑B‑C correction may have bottomed at 38.8–36.2 zone. A minor impulse could now attempt to reclaim 42–44. Failure would imply a larger-degree C extension toward mid‑30s.

Hourly microstructure (from provided h-data)

13:30–16:30Z: Controlled bid into 40.3 with higher lows.
17:30Z spike to 41.78 (session high) followed by orderly pullback to 40.64 close; buyers defended 40.3 multiple times.
Key intraday levels for tomorrow: 40.0–40.3 (buy zone), 41.5–41.8 (breakout trigger), 39.6 (warning), 38.9 (hard support/invalidation risk).

Scenario analysis (next 24h)

Bullish continuation (55%): Hold above 40.0 at/after open → press 41.5–41.8 → break triggers momentum into 42.3 then 43.3–43.6 (61.8% retrace/gap band). Likely close 42–43 if not extended.
Sideways consolidation (30%): Range 39.5–41.5; multiple VWAP tests; close near 40.5–41.0. Sets up a larger move early next week.
Bearish continuation (15%): Lose 39.6 → 38.9 retest. A decisive break <38.7 opens 37.7 then 36.2 (capitulation low). Would invalidate the bounce thesis for this 24h window.

Risk management and execution plan

Entry plan: Place a buy limit near 40.2 (prior VWAP/back‑test and intraday demand). If market opens strong and doesn’t dip, an alternative buy‑stop on a clean break/hold above 41.8 is viable, but with a slightly tighter profit target (42.9–43.4) due to entry slippage.
Initial stop (discretionary, not part of requested fields): 38.70 (below 78.6% retrace and today’s value area). Conservative traders could use 38.15 (today’s low) acknowledging wider ATR.
Take‑profit: Scale into 42.3 (partial) and 43.3–43.6 (primary). For the single target required, 43.4 aligns with the 61.8% bounce magnet and pre‑gap shelf.
Position sizing: Size for ~3.8–4.0% initial risk vs ~7.5–8.0% target to maintain >2:1 R:R.

Confluence check (why Buy)

Oversold bounce context: RSI recovering from sub‑40; yesterday’s selling climax followed by an inside day green close near VWAP.
Fibonacci and gap structure: 78.6% retrace defended; 50–61.8% gap retrace above (41.3–43.5) acts as a near‑term magnet once 41.8 clears.
Volume and profile: Heavy‑volume low established; today’s acceptance above 40 builds a base; low‑volume pocket above suggests efficient travel if triggered.
Risk definition: Clear invalidation below 38.7 provides asymmetric setup.

Bottom line: Buy dips into 40.1–40.3 for a day‑2 push toward 43.4, invalidation under 38.7. If BTC is notably weak overnight, reduce size or wait for a confirmed reclaim of 41.8 before engaging.

Not financial advice. Perform your own due diligence and adjust risk to your mandate.