ImmunityBio, Inc. (IBRX) Technical Analysis — 2025-06-29

Step 1: Trend and Price Structure Analysis

Long-Term Trend:

• Over the past four months, IBRX displayed significant price oscillations, peaking at $3.75 (June 10th), with a pronounced low near $2.00 (early May).
• Recent price action since mid-June has formed lower highs and lower lows post the $3.75 spike, culminating in the latest close at $2.70.

Short-Term Trend:

• June 17th - June 27th: Distinct downtrend, falling from $2.84 close to $2.70, with repeated attempts to hold above $2.80 rebuffed.
• Last few sessions: High volume selloffs—June 27th saw 15.4M volume, latterly larger than prior sessions’ average (4–7M)—suggesting increased bearish participation and potential capitulation, but no reversal wicks visible.

Step 2: Candlestick Pattern Analysis

• The last three sessions form consecutive small-bodied candles (spinning tops, doji-like): Indecision.
• No strong bullish reversal formations (e.g., hammer, engulfing) at local support.
• Previous bounces from these price regions have been weak and short-lived.

Step 3: Volume Analysis

• Recent high-volume down days, especially on June 27, signal institutional liquidation or panic selling with no obvious sign of absorption.
• This is in contrast to some prior rounded bottoms on lower volume (late April/early May).
• Volume spike with low close implies distribution, not accumulation.

Step 4: Moving Average Analysis

• 20-Day EMA (est. ~$2.95): Price is below, acting as resistance.
• 50-Day SMA (est. ~$2.82): Price now below, confirming short-term negative momentum.
• Cross-down of both averages, particularly the break of the 50-MA, adds to bearish thesis.

Step 5: Support/Resistance Level Analysis

• Major resistances: $2.80 (recent highs and clustered closes), then $3.00–$3.10 range (50/20-day MA and past consolidations).
• Immediate support: $2.65–$2.70 (intraday lows and closes); below that, psychological $2.50, then $2.30 zone.
• If $2.70 fails, historic price action (early May period & April) shows quick drops toward $2.50 and even $2.10.

Step 6: Momentum Indicators

• RSI (estimated): Likely near 32–38; not deeply oversold but approaching, so still room to the downside before classic reversal risk increases.
• MACD: Short-term lines likely negative and diverging—bearish momentum increasing.
• Stochastics Oscillator: Would expect it declining, perhaps not yet at oversold, indicating there may be a little more downside.

Step 7: Pattern and Volatility Analysis

• Descending Triangle: Since mid-June, repeated horizontal support at $2.69/$2.70, with declining peaks—classic descending triangle setup. Break below $2.70 projects measured move to $2.40–$2.50.
• ATR (Average True Range): Estimated ~0.22 per day (from recent high/low ranges); plenty of volatility for momentum trades.

Step 8: Sentiment and Order Flow

• Accelerating downward trend, increased volume, and failed reversals all suggest the sell-side is still in control. Lack of large bullish reversal candles or exhaustion gaps adds conviction.

Step 9: Comprehensive Strategy Synthesis

Combined signals:

• Price below key moving averages; high-volume breakdown; no reversal/capitulation wicks; clear horizontal support is being tested again after series of lower highs; momentum still negative.
• Probability of a fast retest of lower supports ($2.60, $2.50, possibly $2.40) is high if $2.70 fails.
• Downside risk outweighs upside reward over the next 24 hours.

Step 10: Risk/Reward & Execution

• Sell/Short Entry: Optimal entry at $2.69–$2.70, ideally on any weak retest or break of this support.
• Profit Target: $2.50, conservative but realistic, aligns with historic pivots and measured move target.
• Stop loss (not requested): Above $2.80 would invalidate bearish setup, but not part of direct output.

Summary:

• Technicals and market psychology strongly favor continued short-term weakness for IBRX. No buyers have stepped in, and rising volume on the sell-side means a breakdown is imminent.

24-Hour Trading Decision: Sell (Short Position), Open at $2.69, Cover at $2.50.