Tradzar
Intel Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI
INTC Post-Blow-Off Repricing: Failed 50–61.8% Retrace Signals Another Leg Down (24h Bearish Bias)
Market snapshot (INTC)
- Current price: 46.47
- Last completed daily candle (2026-01-30): O 48.98 / H 49.58 / L 45.96 / C 46.47
→ large bearish body after a multi-day bounce; wide range indicates elevated volatility. - Recent extremes:
- Swing high: 54.60 (2026-01-22)
- Swing low: 42.28 (2026-01-26)
- Current sits near the middle-lower of this post-crash range.
1) Trend & structure (multi-timeframe)
Daily trend (last ~3 months)
- Oct–Nov: strong volatility, then breakdown into mid/low 30s (Nov low ~33.48).
- Late Nov–early Dec: strong rebound to 43–44, then mean reversion back toward 36–40 into late Dec.
- Early Jan: powerful impulse up (39 → 49 → 54) culminating Jan 21–22 blow-off.
- Jan 23 gap/crash candle: 54 area rejected hard; close 45.07 on massive volume.
- Since then: high-volatility consolidation with a reflex bounce to 48.7–49, then another selloff to 46.47.
Interpretation: The dominant structure since Jan 22 is distribution / downward re-pricing after a climax top. The bounce into 48–49 looks like a dead-cat/relief rally into overhead supply.
Short-term trend (last 5–7 sessions)
- 42.49 (Jan 26) → 43.93 (Jan 27) → 48.78 (Jan 28) → 48.66 (Jan 29) → 46.47 (Jan 30)
- That sequence is a lower high attempt failing under resistance, followed by a bearish reversal day.
Bias for next 24h: down / range-to-down unless price reclaims 48+ quickly.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (price memory)
Key resistance (sellers likely)
- 48.65–49.60: recent closes/high (Jan 29 close 48.66; Jan 30 high 49.58). This is the most immediate supply zone.
- 50.20–50.40: Jan 20 high 50.23; Jan 15 high 50.39.
- 53.00–54.60: blow-off top / breakdown origin; major overhead supply.
Key support (buyers likely)
- 45.95–46.10: Jan 30 low 45.96; after-hours prints ~46.11. Immediate support.
- 44.45–45.10: Jan 23 low 44.45 and close 45.07 (important pivot).
- 42.28–42.50: Jan 26 low/close zone (post-crash capitulation low).
Where current price sits: 46.47 is only ~1% above the nearest support band (45.95–46.10). That often invites a support test.
3) Candlestick & price-action read
- Jan 30 candle: strong bearish candle with a deep intraday low and close near the lows relative to the prior two sessions.
- This frequently acts as a “sell the bounce” trigger candle when it appears after a rally into resistance.
- The move Jan 28–29 stalled, then Jan 30 broke lower → suggests the bounce failed and sellers regained control.
Next 24h expectation from pure PA: retest 46.0, with risk of extension toward 45.0 if 46 breaks cleanly.
4) Volume & participation (effort vs result)
- Peak volume events:
- Jan 23: ~294.7M (crash/redistribution)
- Jan 21–22: 220M / 190M (blow-off / frenzy)
- Jan 28: ~202.0M (bounce attempt)
- Pattern: huge volume on both the blow-off and subsequent dump, then large volume on rebound.
Interpretation: This is consistent with institutional-scale two-way trade, but the inability to hold above ~49 after a high-volume rebound implies overhead supply is heavy. That tilts short-term odds toward more selling / range compression downward.
5) Momentum indicators (inference from closes)
(Exact indicator values aren’t computed tick-by-tick here, but directionally we can infer reliably from the sequence.)
RSI (14) regime inference
- The rally into 54 likely pushed RSI into overbought.
- The crash to 42 likely reset RSI toward neutral/oversold.
- The rebound to 48–49 followed by a sharp down day suggests RSI is rolling over again, likely moving from mid/high-50s back toward <50.
RSI signal: momentum fading, favoring downside follow-through rather than immediate continuation up.
MACD regime inference
- The impulse from early Jan created strong positive MACD.
- The violent reversal Jan 23 typically causes MACD histogram to contract rapidly and often cross down within days.
- The failed rebound into 48–49 after that suggests a classic bearish MACD reset.
MACD signal: biased bearish / negative momentum reassertion.
6) Volatility: ATR / range behavior
- Recent daily ranges are very wide (e.g., Jan 30 range ≈ 3.62; Jan 23 range ≈ 3.68; Jan 21 range ≈ 4.26).
- This is high ATR regime → stop placement must be wider; price can swing 2–4 dollars in a day.
Implication for next 24h: expect $1.5–$3.0 intraday potential movement; levels matter more than small indicator wiggles.
7) Fibonacci & retracement logic (from Jan 22 high to Jan 26 low)
- Swing: High ~54.60 → Low ~42.28 (range ~12.32)
- 50% retrace ≈ 48.44
- 61.8% retrace ≈ 49.90
Price rallied to ~49.58 and failed, which is right around the 50–61.8% retracement resistance band.
Fib conclusion: the rebound likely completed a typical bear-market retrace, increasing probability of next leg down (at least a retest of 45 / 42.5).
8) Mean reversion / gap logic
- The Jan 23 event created a large discontinuity from the 54 area down to 45.
- Such gaps often lead to:
- an initial bounce,
- then retest/lower low attempt as trapped longs exit and shorts press.
Given Jan 30’s reversal after the bounce, the setup resembles phase (2).
9) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): downside drift / support test
- Expect 46.0 to be tested early.
- If 45.95–46.10 breaks with momentum, next magnet is 45.10, then potentially 44.45.
Alternative case: support holds and squeezes
- If 46.0 holds and buyers step in, a bounce toward 47.80–48.40 is plausible.
- However, any bounce into 48.6–49.6 is likely to meet selling unless new information shifts sentiment.
Directional call (24h): slightly-to-moderately bearish; range likely 45.2–47.8, skewed to the downside.
10) Trade plan (decision + optimal entry)
Given:
- failed retrace into Fib resistance (48.4–49.9),
- heavy overhead supply near 49–50,
- bearish reversal candle on Jan 30,
- high ATR (favoring level-based short entries on rebounds),
Decision: Sell (Short Position)
- Optimal open (entry): 48.60
- Rationale: aligns with prior close area (48.66), the 50% retrace region (~48.44), and sits below the thicker resistance at ~49.6—seeking a bounce entry rather than shorting directly on support.
- If price does not bounce and instead breaks 46 cleanly, the trade would be missed; that’s acceptable vs. chasing at support.
- Take-profit (close): 45.20
- Rationale: targets the next major demand band above 44.45–45.07 pivot and captures a realistic ~3.4-point move within current ATR regime.
(Risk note for execution: in this volatility regime, a practical invalidation zone is above ~49.70–50.20, but you didn’t request stop-loss pricing.)