IOBT’s Two-Dollar Reclaim: Momentum Buildup Targets 2.40 After a VWAP Dip

Symbol: IOBT (IO Biotech, Inc.) | Currency: $ | Last: 2.16 (21:00 UTC)

Executive take: IOBT staged a high-volume gap-and-go from 1.28 to a 2.21 intraday high, closing strong at 2.16, reclaiming the critical 2.00 zone and pressing into a July supply shelf (2.20–2.40). The tape shows a momentum regime shift with expanding range and volume, post-crash mean reversion, and evidence of short covering. Baseline expectation over the next 24 hours: early pullback-to-VWAP/38.2% retrace (≈2.00–2.08) followed by a retest of 2.30–2.40. Bias: buy-the-dip, not chase.

1. Price action and structure

• Daily context (last 4 months):
  • April–May basing 0.86–1.10, May/June impulse to 1.62, consolidation 1.30–1.50, July breakout to 2.48 (7/28 high), then pullback to 1.80s and sharp capitulation 8/11 to 0.98–1.05 (catalyst-driven selloff). Recovery to 1.31–1.28 (8/12–8/14), then today’s explosive reclaim to 2.16.
  • Today: gap up from 1.28 prior close, open near 1.40, push to 2.21, close 2.16 on heavy volume (35.4M). Strong close near highs = buyers in control.
• Intraday (hourly blocks):
  • 13:30–17:30 UTC: steady higher highs/higher lows to ~2.02.
  • 18:30 UTC: vertical expansion 1.88–2.21 on the session’s largest volume bar (14.6M), classic squeeze signature.
  • 19:30–20:00 UTC: consolidation 1.88–2.16 (bull flag into close), closing >2.13.
• Implications: structural trend reversal off 0.98 low; now back above June/July value area. Price acceptance above 2.00 often precedes tests of 2.30–2.40 supply.

2. Support/resistance mapping

• Immediate support: 2.00–2.08 (round number, afternoon VWAP zone and prior breakout ledge), 1.88 (38.2% retrace of 1.33→2.21 and prior intraday shelf), 1.77 (50% of that day move), 1.66 (61.8%).
• Resistance: 2.20–2.24 (local supply, July congestion), 2.35–2.40 (volume shelf + round), 2.47–2.48 (7/28 spike high), stretch 2.78 (R2 pivot) if momentum persists.

3. Gap analysis

• Gap size: +0.88 vs prior close (69%). Gap not filled (low 1.33 > 1.28), only partial early backfill, then trend day.
• Historical analog for small-cap/biotech gap-and-go with volume: probability-weighted next session pattern is early pullback (20–50% of prior day range) then continuation toward prior day high or R1 pivot if volume persists.

4. Volume, OBV, and volume profile

• Today’s volume 35.4M, well above recent except 8/11 (capitulation 82.9M). Accumulation day (price up on expanding volume) following consecutive higher-volume recovery sessions suggests short covering plus fresh longs.
• Volume shelves: 1.30–1.50 (legacy value), 1.88–2.10 (new acceptance building). Expect buyers to defend 2.00–2.05 first on dips.
• OBV (qualitative): inflecting hard up; confirms price advance.

5. Moving averages (estimates from series)

• Short MAs (5/10/20D) turning up sharply; price now riding above them. 20D likely ~1.55–1.65; 50D near ~1.50–1.60; 200D likely ~1.30–1.50. Price > 20D, 50D, 200D = bullish alignment or imminent re-cross after the 8/11 shock.
• Implication: trend support under price; pullbacks to rising MAs often bought in momentum regimes.

6. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily likely in high 60s/low 70s after +69% session. Overbought but can embed in strong trends (RSI bull ranges hold above 40–50 on pullbacks). Intraday RSI cooled into close on a bull flag.
• Stochastic: likely >80; expect shallow pullback before another thrust if trend intact.

7. MACD

• Daily MACD crossing up from deeply negative after 8/11 washout; histogram expanding positive. Early-cycle momentum thrust typically sees continuation attempts within 1–2 sessions.

8. Bollinger Bands / Keltner Channels

• Price closed above upper Bollinger; “band walk” behavior after squeeze initiation. Keltner width expanded; no squeeze—this is breakout expansion. Mean-reversion risk to mid-band (~1.75–1.85) exists but, in early breakout phases, pullbacks frequently shallow to 38.2%/VWAP, not full reversion.

9. ATR and volatility regime

• Today’s TR ≈ 0.88; ATR(14) plausibly ~0.40–0.50 and rising. Volatility regime shift confirmed (post-catalyst). Expect 0.35–0.60 intraday swings next session; position sizing should account for this.

10. Fibonacci mapping

• Today’s leg: 1.33 → 2.21.
  • 38.2% = ~1.876 (tagged 1.88 intra; held), 50% = ~1.77, 61.8% = ~1.66.
  • Holding above 38.2% indicates strong trend. A dip toward 2.00–2.08 aligns with VWAP/structure rather than deep fibs; constructive if bought.
• Larger arc: 0.98 (8/11 low) → 2.21 (today high).
  • 61.8% of the entire rebound sits near 1.88—precisely where buyers stepped in. Confluence strengthens that level.
• Extensions: Break of 2.21 opens 1.272–1.618 extensions toward ~2.35–2.55 (aligns with 2.40–2.48 supply cluster).

11. Pivot points (derived from H=2.21, L=1.33, C=2.16)

• PP ≈ 1.90; R1 ≈ 2.47; S1 ≈ 1.59; R2 ≈ 2.78; S2 ≈ 1.02. Trading above PP into close is bullish. R1 sits just above the July high (2.47–2.48), a magnet if momentum persists.

12. VWAP / Anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• Session VWAP likely ~1.95–2.02 given heavy afternoon prints; price closed above VWAP. Expect first dip buyers near VWAP band (2.00–2.08). Anchored to 8/11 capitulation likely near 1.45–1.55, well below—underscores the reclaimed uptrend.

13. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price reclaimed/above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun crossover likely occurred; Lagging span crossing price/cloud. Bullish stack supports buy-the-dip bias.

14. Elliott Wave (tactical count)

• From 8/11 low: Wave 1 up (to ~1.57 on 8/12), Wave 2 pullback (to 1.28 on 8/14), Wave 3 thrust (to 2.21 today). Expect Wave 4 consolidation/pullback toward 2.00–2.08, then Wave 5 attempt toward 2.35–2.45 (just shy of July spike high). Invalidated on decisive break below 1.88.

15. Wyckoff lens

• Phase C/D action: spring on 8/11, then SOS (sign of strength) today with backing-up action intraday to 1.88. We’re likely in D phase, building a higher value area above 2.00 before a potential markup into prior supply at 2.35–2.48.

16. ADX/DMI (qualitative)

• +DI above -DI with rising ADX > 20–25 expected after today’s expansion; trend-confirming. Continuation favored over immediate mean reversion so long as ADX rises.

17. Candles and patterns

• Daily: wide-range bullish candle with minor upper wick; not an exhaustion wick. Intraday: bull flag into the close (1.88–2.16 range), constructive for next-session continuation if the flag base (1.88–1.95) holds.

18. Scenarios for next 24 hours (probabilistic)

• Bull case (55%): Early pullback to 2.00–2.08 (VWAP zone), holds above 1.95–2.00, rotates up to 2.30–2.40; possible stop runs to 2.45–2.48 if volume persists.
• Base case (30%): Range 1.95–2.20 consolidation; multiple VWAP tests; close near 2.15–2.25.
• Bear case (15%): Loss of 2.00 leads to 1.88 retest; if 1.88 breaks on volume, further mean reversion toward 1.77–1.66 Fibonacci cluster.

19. Risk factors

• Biotech headline risk remains elevated; gap risk over weekend.
• High short interest potential cuts both ways; squeezes can overshoot up, but profit-taking can be swift.
• Liquidity is ample but slippage can be material during volatility spikes.

20. Trading plan synthesis

• Thesis: Momentum reversal with confirmation, supported by breadth of signals (price > key MAs, OBV up, MACD cross, band walk). Best entry is a planned buy-the-dip into 2.00–2.08 support/VWAP zone, aiming for a push into 2.35–2.40 (beneath obvious supply and R1 magnet).
• Invalidations: A decisive close back below 1.88 would negate the immediate momentum swing and open deeper retrace targets (1.77/1.66). For intraday risk control, a hard stop could be staged just under 1.88; soft stop under 1.96 for tighter risk.

Conclusion and 24h outlook: Expect a controlled dip early next session toward ~2.05 ±0.05, then a rotation higher to test 2.30–2.40. Strategy: Buy (long) on a pullback entry near 2.08; target 2.40 within the 24h window, with risk managed below 1.88.