IRBT: Pivot Hold After a Climactic Breakout — Setting Up a Bullish Retest of 3.20–3.35

Summary view

• Ticker: IRBT | Currency: $ | Last: 3.03 | Session range (12/04): 2.83–3.25 | 12/04 volume: ~36.9M vs 12/03: ~228.6M (event-driven)
• Market context: After months of decline to a 1.40–2.00 base, IRBT exploded higher on 12/03 with extreme volume, then consolidated on 12/04 around the prior day’s VWAP/pivot. This is a classic “news-driven spike + day-2 digestion” setup.

Multi-timeframe price/volume read

• Daily trend: Price has reclaimed and now sits well above short- and medium-term averages after a climactic-volume breakout (12/03), suggesting a regime shift from downtrend to near-term bullish recovery. Pullback on 12/04 stayed above key intraday support and closed near the daily pivot.
• Intraday trend (12/04): Two-sided auction with higher liquidity between 2.90–3.10 and spikes to 3.25. Close near 3.00–3.03 (around session VWAP) indicates balance rather than distribution lower.
• Volume/OBV: Extraordinary upside volume 12/03 followed by still-elevated 12/04; net effect keeps On-Balance Volume trending up sharply, confirming accumulation despite the pullback.

Key levels and confluence

• Prior day (12/04) Pivot set for next session: P ≈ 3.04; R1 ≈ 3.24; R2 ≈ 3.46; S1 ≈ 2.82; S2 ≈ 2.62.
• Recent structure: 2.83 (intraday low/12/04; aligns with S1 and 38.2% retrace of the 1.95→3.39 impulse), 2.95–3.05 (high-volume node/VWAP cluster), 3.25 (intraday resistance), 3.39 (12/03 close/near resistance), 3.50 (round-number/overhead supply).
• Fibonacci of 1.95→3.39: 38.2% ≈ 2.84 (tested), 50% ≈ 2.67, 61.8% ≈ 2.41. Respecting 38.2% suggests a shallow corrective wave—bullish continuation odds.

Indicators and signals

• Moving averages: 5D MA ≈ 2.33 > 10D ≈ 1.93; 20D ≈ 1.98. Price (3.03) is well above all three—early-stage bullish trend with rising short MAs; a 10/20 cross is close.
• RSI(14) (est.): Mid-60s post-spike and cooled by 12/04 pullback—constructive, not severely overbought.
• MACD (daily): Positive and expanding after a surge; signal-line crossover likely occurred on 12/03. Momentum remains up.
• Stochastic: Pulled back from overbought with price holding higher lows—a typical reset before a second push.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Bands expanded; price reverted toward the middle band after touching/approaching the upper band—classic consolidation inside an expanding volatility regime.
• ATR (recent): Elevated (roughly 0.40–0.60), implying a plausible next-day range of ±13–20% around price—position sizing should account for this.
• Ichimoku (daily, qualitative): Price above Tenkan/Kijun and projected cloud; momentum-biased bullish with room for a retest of resistance.

Tape/market structure takeaways

• Anchored VWAP from 12/03 sits around 2.95–3.05 (given 12/04’s volume distribution). Price closed essentially on/just above that band, indicating fair value acceptance rather than rejection.
• Liquidity pocket: 2.90–3.10 is a magnet; a hold above the pivot (≈3.04) favors a test of R1 (≈3.24) and potentially 3.30–3.39.
• Overhead supply: 3.25–3.50 is the first heavy supply zone; expect initial rejection attempts there on first touch.

Pattern diagnosis

• Breakout–pullback–go: 12/03 impulse up; 12/04 digestion with a higher low and close at pivot. This resembles a bull flag/flat-top consolidation on high volume—often sets up a second-leg push.
• Candle read: 12/04 small body near VWAP/pivot after testing down to S1 and bouncing—indecision but constructive (buyers defended the 38.2% retrace).

Next 24h outlook (probabilistic)

• Base case (55%): Hold 2.95–3.05 early; grind toward 3.20–3.30; test R1 ≈ 3.24 and possibly 3.30–3.35. Close near/above 3.20.
• Pullback case (25%): Early liquidity sweep to 2.88–2.92; quick reclaim of pivot leads to late-day push back to 3.15–3.25.
• Bear case (20%): Lose 2.90 decisively and break 2.83 (S1), sliding to 2.70–2.75 (near 50% retrace). Would weaken the near-term long setup.

Risk factors

• Event risk remains elevated given the prior day’s exceptional volume and news flow. Slippage can be significant around the 2.80–2.85 stop cluster and 3.25 breakout attempts.
• Broader market beta: If indices risk-off, IRBT could re-test S1 quickly.

Trade plan (short-term swing/intraday hybrid)

• Bias: Buy dips toward the pivot/VWAP band with tight risk below S1.
• Entry: Staggered limit around 2.96–3.00 to participate on minor pullbacks without chasing.
• Profit target: 3.28–3.35 (first scale), extension 3.39 if momentum expands.
• Invalidation (stop): 2.82 (below S1/12/04 low), acknowledging ATR. This preserves a ~1.9:1 R:R vs a 3.28 target from a 2.98 entry.

Bottom line

• The technicals favor a tactically bullish continuation over the next 24 hours: shallow Fibonacci retrace held, price accepted at pivot/VWAP, momentum remains positive, and volume confirms accumulation. Expect a retest of 3.20–3.30 with a reasonable chance to probe 3.30–3.35. Manage downside through 2.82.

This is a short-term, technical view only—update levels in real time as liquidity shifts.