IVVD Coils Above Anchored VWAP: Buy the 0.95 Dip for a Push Toward 1.04

Executive summary

• Context: IVVD just experienced a catalytic gap-and-go on 2025-08-26 (186.8M shares) from ~0.56 to a 1.14 high, followed by a sharp pullback and now a three-day consolidation around 0.95–1.00. Current close 0.973 (post-close print ~0.96). The tape shows a developing value area with anchored VWAP gravity near ~0.97–0.99 and a stubborn psychological/supply ceiling at $1.00–1.05.
• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a defined range. Expect a buy-the-dip tone toward 0.94–0.96 with a push to retest 0.99–1.04. Optimal plan: place a limit buy in the 0.95 area and target a pop into $1.04 (front-run 1.05 resistance).

1. Multi-timeframe price structure Daily

• Trend shift: Multi-month base in 0.70–0.80 broke via news-driven gap to 1.14, resetting trend up. The subsequent pullback bottomed intraday at 0.77 on 8/27 and reclaimed closes near 0.99–0.97 over the last two sessions—constructive digestion above the 38.2% retrace (0.889), comfortably above the 50% retrace (0.811).
• Key daily levels: Support 0.89 (Fib 38.2%), 0.93–0.95 (volume node/anchored VWAP cluster), 0.81 (Fib 50%). Resistance 0.985 (Fib 23.6%), 1.00 (round), 1.04–1.05 (recent swing high), 1.10–1.14 (spike high/supply).
• Candle story: 8/27 long lower wick recovery; 8/28 bullish body closing near highs; 8/29 small-body day with lower high but defended mid-range—classic post-spike digestion.

Hourly (8/29 session + after-hours)

• Open drive failure from 1.05 faded to 0.93–0.9359, twice defended; late-session grind reclaimed 0.978–0.98, closing 0.973 with AH dip to ~0.96. Micro-range 0.93–0.99 held most of the day; repeated rejections near 0.99–1.00 define immediate supply.
• Intraday POC/value: Turnover concentrated 0.95–0.98; frequent reversion to ~0.97 suggests VWAP magnet.

2. Volume, liquidity, and order flow

• Regime shift: 186.8M on 8/26 dwarfs prior volumes, indicating institutional attention; subsequent sessions still elevated (22.4M, 14.7M) before normalizing (3.9M), confirming consolidation rather than abandonment.
• Volume shelf: Visible node 0.93–0.99. Buyers repeatedly show up sub-0.95; sellers consistently lean at 0.99–1.00 and again at 1.04–1.05.
• OBV/Accumulation (qualitative): OBV made a regime jump on 8/26; pullback reduced only a fraction of the gain; last two closes stabilized—net accumulation remains intact.

3. Indicators and overlays

• Moving averages (approx):
  • SMA20 ≈ 0.78–0.82 (skewed by pre-spike prints). Price > SMA20—bullish.
  • SMA50 ≈ 0.76–0.79; price > SMA50—trend confirmation.
  • Short-term EMA8/EMA21 (qualitative): compressing around 0.95–0.98; close near the fast MAs indicates equilibrium with upward bias if 1.00 breaks.
• RSI (14D, est): mid-50s to low-60s after cooling from spike—room to the upside without overbought risk.
• MACD (D): crossed positive with large histogram on 8/26; histogram contracted but remains above zero; signal-line catch-up implies potential re-expansion on a push through $1.00.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Width expanded on 8/26; compression underway. Mid-band rising toward ~0.80s; price riding upper half of the bands. A break >1.00 likely tags upper band (~1.03–1.06), aligning with our target.
• ATR (14D, est): materially elevated (0.09–0.13). Expect 8–12% day range; plan entries at support, exits just below resistance.
• Ichimoku (D, qualitative): Price above cloud; Tenkan near 0.95, Kijun ~0.87–0.90. Price oscillating around Tenkan = typical post-spike mean-revert within uptrend; bullish while >Kijun and >cloud.

4. Fibonacci and key levels

• Using swing low 0.483 (8/21) to swing high 1.14 (8/26):
  • 23.6%: 0.985 (current capping level; exact battlefield zone)
  • 38.2%: 0.889 (higher-timeframe support, held on closes)
  • 50%: 0.811 (deep support from 8/27 intraday proximity)
• Price currently toggles just under 23.6%, which often acts as the last resistance before a retest of the local high cluster (1.04–1.05, then 1.10–1.14). Hence, a decisive reclaim of 0.985/1.00 unlocks momentum to 1.04–1.05.

5. Anchored VWAP and mean reversion

• AVWAP from 8/26 (catalyst) sits roughly in the 0.97–0.99 area given subsequent high-volume prints. Price hugging AVWAP suggests fair value discovery; deviations to 0.94–0.95 tend to mean-revert back toward the anchor, presenting high-probability dip-buys.

6. Market profile / supply-demand mapping

• Demand zones: 0.93–0.95 (buyers defended multiple times 8/29), 0.88–0.90 (Fib confluence + prior close 8/27).
• Supply zones: 0.985–1.00 (Fib 23.6% + round number), 1.04–1.05 (local swing high from 8/29 open and 8/26 intraday distribution), 1.10–1.14 (spike distribution tail).

7. Pattern diagnostics

• Post-spike bull flag/pennant: Three-session narrowing range with lower highs and higher lows on intraday basis—coiling. A measured move on a $1.00 break projects to ~1.04–1.06 (height of coil ~0.06 added to 0.99–1.00), aligning with resistance.
• Gap behavior: Massive gap from 0.56 to 0.95 largely intact; partial fill to 0.77 already occurred. News gaps of this scale often remain partially open during the first consolidation. Odds favor sideways-to-up rather than full gap fill in the immediate term.

8. Relative/behavioral context

• Psych level $1.00: microstructure shows passive sellers; expect stop and momentum flow if reclaimed and held for 15–30 minutes next session.
• Weekend effect: With the current time near the weekly close, some risk-off AH prints appeared (~0.96). Typically, such dips are probed early next session and, if support holds (0.93–0.95), mean-revert toward the weekly magnet (~0.98–1.00).

9. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early dip to 0.94–0.96 gets bought; drift back to 0.99–1.02; brief extension into 1.03–1.04 where supply re-engages. Close near 0.99–1.02.
• Range case (35%): Choppy 0.93–0.99 without clean breakout; multiple VWAP reverts; best fades at 0.99 and bids at 0.94–0.95.
• Bear break (10%): Clean loss of 0.93 opens 0.90 then 0.889 (Fib 38.2%). Would invalidate the dip-buy for the session and postpone breakout attempts.

10. Trade plan and risk/reward

• Strategy: Buy the dip into the 0.95 demand pocket where AVWAP support and prior intraday defense converge. Target a push into the 1.04 supply shelf, front-running 1.05 offers.
• Entry: Limit buy ~0.955 (within defended zone; improves fill probability given AH ~0.96).
• Target: 1.04 (near upper band and local resistance; 8–10% upside from entry).
• Optional risk control (not part of requested fields): Protective stop ~0.925 (below multi-touch 0.93 floor). R:R ≈ (1.04–0.955)/(0.955–0.925) ≈ 0.085/0.03 ≈ 2.8:1.

11. Why not short?

• Price > SMA20/50 and above Ichimoku cloud; OBV regime remains elevated; repeated demand at 0.93–0.95; $1.00 break risk is asymmetric against shorts. Shorting into AVWAP support after a fresh catalyst is lower quality in this timeframe.

Conclusion

• The evidence across trend, AVWAP, Fibonacci, and intraday microstructure favors a controlled long: buy the dip toward 0.95 with a take-profit into 1.04 over the next session. A decisive reclaim/hold above 1.00 could accelerate; conversely, a loss of 0.93 would defer the setup.