Joby Aviation, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

JOBY Post-Capitulation Bounce Meets Overhead Supply: 24H Downward Skew From 10.4–10.8 Resistance

Market Regime Read: JOBY in a post-gap capitulation, attempting a base

Current price: 10.38 (intraday last shown ~10.36–10.38)

1) Multi-timeframe structure (Daily)

Primary trend (Oct → Feb): bearish. Price fell from the ~19–20 zone (early Oct) to ~10–11 (late Jan/early Feb): a clear sequence of lower highs / lower lows.
Key breakdown event: 2026-01-29 collapse (O 11.34 / H 11.38 / L 10.80 / C 11.14) on extreme volume ~153.9M (many multiples of prior days). That is a classic distribution / forced liquidation signature.
Post-breakdown follow-through: 01-30 close 10.57, then 02-02 close 10.56, 02-03 close 10.73 (attempted rebound), 02-04 close ~10.38 (rejected).

Implication: The stock is in a bear-market within a fresh lower price acceptance zone (10–11). Bounces tend to be sold until a higher low + reclaim of resistance occurs.

2) Intraday tape (Hourly) — what happened today

Hourly sequence on 2026-02-04:

Morning drift: 10.78–10.80 steady.
Midday weakness: 13:00 hour prints 10.89 high → 10.68 close (failed push).
Cash open (14:30): 10.67 → 10.395 (sell impulse).
Continuation: 15:30 10.395 → 10.2545, 16:30 10.25 → 9.925 (intraday low region).
Bounce: 17:30 close 10.06.
Late push: 19:30 hour high 10.46, close 10.285.
Last hour: 20:30 close 10.38, then 21:00 10.37.

Micro-structure takeaway:

Strong sell program into the open drove price below 10.00 (down to ~9.81–9.89 on the session).
Bounce was real, but failed to hold above 10.40–10.46 (visible supply overhead).

3) Support / Resistance mapping (price-action anchored)

Near supports

9.80–9.95: session low area (02-04 low 9.81; hourly low prints 9.89/9.81). First meaningful demand zone.
10.10–10.20: minor intraday pivot area (multiple hourly lows/opens around 10.10–10.19).

Near resistances

10.40–10.46: late-day bounce ceiling (hourly high 10.46, failure).
10.70–10.80: morning balance / prior intraday acceptance and also close-to 02-03 area.
11.10–11.40: breakdown origin / gap supply (01-29/01-30 region). Major overhead.

Interpretation: Price is below a layered resistance band (10.40–10.80). Unless it reclaims and holds, rallies are statistically more likely to be sold.

4) Candlestick / pattern read

Daily candles after 01-29 show a dead-cat bounce attempt (02-03) followed by a bearish rejection (02-04) with a wide intraday range.
Today’s action resembles a bounce inside a downtrend rather than a reversal: it made a deep low (9.81) but closed back near 10.38—still under key resistance.

5) Volume & volatility diagnostics

Capitulation volume (01-29) suggests a potential medium-term base can form, but that typically takes time + retests.
Intraday realized volatility is high (10.67 high-area down to 9.81 low-area ≈ 8%+ swing). High-vol regimes favor mean reversion intraday, but trend continuation on the daily often dominates next-day direction.

6) Momentum (proxy inference) & moving-average logic

While exact MA/RSI values aren’t computed here, the price path strongly implies:

Price is well below likely 50D/100D/200D moving averages (given the 19→10 down move), meaning trend filters remain bearish.
The bounce from ~10.56 to 10.73 (02-03) did not extend; today rejected and ended lower, consistent with weak upside momentum.

7) Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

Base case (higher probability): bearish-to-neutral, with selling into resistance

Expect attempts to push into 10.40–10.55 to meet supply.
If rejected, price can rotate back toward 10.10, and in a risk-off tape retest 9.95–9.80 is plausible.

Bull case (lower probability): reclaim and hold above resistance

A sustained move and hold above 10.55, then 10.70–10.80, would signal absorption and could target ~11.10.
Given repeated failures and larger downtrend, this is less likely within 24 hours unless a catalyst hits.

Bear case (moderate probability): breakdown retest

Loss of 10.10 increases odds of revisiting 9.80 quickly; below 9.80 opens air to ~9.50–9.60 (not present in this dataset but typical next shelf).

8) Trade logic synthesis (why Sell)

Dominant daily downtrend + overhead supply from 10.40–10.80.
Intraday bounce failed at 10.46 and could not reclaim 10.70+.
Post-capitulation basing is possible, but basing phases often feature range trading with downward pressure before a clean reversal.

Bias for next 24h: slight downside / range with a downward skew.

24h directional call

Probable path: 10.35–10.55 early probing → rejection → drift to 10.10 → possible wick to 9.95–9.80.

Execution plan (optimal entry/exit)

Given resistance overhead, the best risk/reward is typically to short into a bounce (sell strength), not sell the hole.

Open (Sell/Short) Price: 10.52 (ideal entry on a bounce into resistance; near the 10.40–10.55 supply band but before the heavier 10.70 area).
Close (Take Profit) Price: 9.92 (just above the 9.80–9.95 demand zone to increase fill probability).

(Practical note: if price never bounces to 10.52, the setup is skipped—chasing shorts near support is lower expectancy.)