KMX: Breakout Holds Above VWAP—Setting Up a Tactical Pop Toward 35.5

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical read on KMX (CarMax Inc) using the supplied data only

Context and regime

• Primary trend (Daily, July–Nov): Persistent downtrend from low-60s to low-30s, with three major gap-down events (Sep 25, Oct 30, Nov 6) on very high volume, signalling institutional distribution and negative news flow. Nov 6 capitulation day (open 36.08, low 30.26, close 30.88, 28.9M shares) marks a likely selling climax.
• Secondary trend (last week): Countertrend rebound from 30.26 toward mid-34s with improving breadth and volume. Today’s close 34.79 is the strongest daily close since the Nov 6 flush, and it marginally exceeds the 11/11–11/12 highs (34.14–34.42), indicating short-term upside momentum.

Structure, levels, and pattern diagnostics

• Key supports: 33.64 (today’s intraday low), 34.20–34.45 (today’s VWAP zone and pivot P area), 32.36 (11/7 close), 31.81 (11/10 low), 30.26 (capitulation low).
• Key resistances: 35.00 (round), 35.20–35.60 (R1/R2 pivots from today’s range), 36.00–36.50 (Nov 6 open 36.50; start of the overhead gap), 37.10–37.20 (61.8% retrace of 41.39→30.26 move).
• Gaps/overhead supply: Massive unfilled overhead supply from 36.1–40.8 (Nov 6 gap). Expect profit-taking/short re-entry to appear into 35.8–36.5 on first test.
• Intraday pattern (hourly): Ascending triangle formed with a flat top 34.70–34.80 and higher lows 33.90→34.08→34.24. Breakout printed new session high 34.83 with close near high (34.79), typically a continuation tell if the breakout holds above 34.50 on retests.

Momentum, trend and mean-reversion indicators

• Moving averages (daily, approximations from closes):
  • 5SMA ≈ 33.79: price 34.79 > 5SMA (short-term up). 5SMA curling higher.
  • 10SMA ≈ 36.47: price 34.79 < 10SMA (near-term trend still down but converging). A 5/10 bull cross could trigger within a few sessions if price holds >34.5.
  • 8EMA (daily) estimated ≈ 34.6: reclaimed today (bullish short-term).
  • 21EMA (daily) estimated ≈ low-41s: still well above price; primary downtrend intact.
• RSI (daily, qualitative): Recovered from oversold post-11/6; now mid-40s region, leaving room up to 50–55 before overbought concerns. Hourly RSI likely high-50s/60s; minor pullback to reset would be healthy.
• MACD (daily): Negative but histogram rising; bullish momentum divergence likely vs the Nov 6 lower low. Hourly MACD is positive and widening post-breakout.
• Stochastics (hourly): Likely overbought after breakout; expect buyable dip into 34.4–34.6.

Volatility, range and statistical edges

• ATR (approx, 14D): Elevated due to recent shocks; rough 1-day ATR currently around 1.6–1.9. Implies an expected next-session range of ~±1.7 around 34.8 → 33.1–36.5. Our upside target sits comfortably within this envelope.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20/2): 20SMA likely ~42 due to earlier prices; lower band around low-30s. Price is rising from near the lower band toward the mid-band; typical mean-reversion path supports rally attempts, but the mid-band is distant and will slope down; practical resistance comes first at 35.5–36.5.

Fibonacci confluence

• From Nov 6 low (30.26) to Nov 5/6 pre-gap high range (use 41.39):
  • 38.2%: 34.51 (today’s close 34.79 is a confirmed reclaim → bullish).
  • 50%: 35.82 (first major objective, aligns with pivot R2–R3 zone and round 36).
  • 61.8%: 37.13 (likely out of reach in the next 24h given supply and ATR).

Pivot map (from today’s H/L/C: 34.83/33.635/34.79)

• Pivot P: 34.418
• R1: 35.202
• R2: 35.613
• R3: 36.397
• S1: 34.007
• S2: 33.223 Interpretation: Optimal dip-buy zone is around P (34.42–34.50). Initial upside magnet R1 ≈ 35.20; stretch to R2 ≈ 35.61 if momentum persists.

Volume/flow analytics

• Today’s total volume 4.27M, rising vs prior day and on an up-close; accumulation tone. Post-capitulation days show rising OBV/Accumulation-Distribution on up sessions—consistent with short covering plus early dip-buying.
• Volume-by-price (qualitative from recent prints) adds a node around 34–35 from the past three sessions; once above 34.5, price tends to trade towards 35.2–35.6 quickly as overhead supply is sparse until 36.

Market profile and VWAP

• Intraday VWAP reclaimed and held into the close (price > VWAP ≈ 34.45). Late-day strength typically carries over for the first hour next session unless invalidated by fresh news.

Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price well below cloud; trend bias still down on higher timeframe.
• Hourly: Price above cloud with conversion line > base line (bullish TK cross), and a thin, slightly rising future cloud—supports continuation provided 34.4–34.5 holds.

Elliott wave / measured move heuristics

• Post-capitulation rally appears in early impulsive sequence from 30.26. A minor wave-3 continuation can reasonably target 35.3–35.8 before a wave-4 pause.
• AB=CD on the hourly from A=30.26 to B=34.42 (Δ=4.16), pullback C=33.64 implies D ≈ 37.80 if fully realized; however, given overhead supply and 24h horizon, expect partial completion into 35.5–36.0.

Risk framing and invalidation

• Invalidation for the long thesis is a decisive loss of 34.00 (S1), with stronger invalidation below 33.64 (today’s low). Those levels would suggest the breakout failed and reversion to 32.3–33.2 is likely.
• Headline risk remains elevated given the prior fundamental shocks. For a 24h trade, use alerts at 34.5 (retest) and 35.2 (first scale area if actively managed).

24-hour outlook and plan

• Bias: Bullish for a continuation day, but with expected supply headwinds near 35.5–36.0.
• Probability-weighted path: Early dip to 34.4–34.6 (retest pivot/VWAP), then push toward 35.2 (R1). If momentum holds and broader market is supportive, extension to 35.5–35.6 (R2 zone) is plausible by day’s end.
• R:R from a tactical long at 34.55 toward 35.55 is attractive (~+1.00 upside vs -0.55 risk to 34.00), and still well inside the 1-day ATR.

Conclusion

• The short-term setup supports a Buy-the-dip approach: breakout, VWAP reclaim, 38.2% Fib captured, hourly uptrend intact, and a clean pivot confluence suggests an optimal entry near 34.5 with a 24h target in the 35.5 area. Primary downtrend remains, so treat this as a tactical long, not an investment swing.