Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Kohl's Corporation (KSS) – July 31, 2025

1. Chart Review & Context

Kohl’s (KSS) is trading at $10.84 at the close of July 31, following a day where the price ranged between $10.66 and $11.34. There was a dramatic rally in late July, notably on July 22, when the price exploded from ~$10.40 to an intra-day high of $21.39 before closing at $14.34—a massive surge accompanied by ultra-high volume (over 209M shares, almost an order of magnitude more than average volumes). Since then, price retraced but remains well above levels seen in May–June.

2. Volume & Volatility Assessment

The price action in July is characterized by abnormal volatility and volume:

• July 22: Massive gap-up with record volume—likely due to a major news or M&A/strategic event.
• Subsequent days: High volatility persists, but price retraces rapidly from high teens to the low teens ($12.30 to $14.34 range) and finds resistance, then support just above $11.
• Current Volume: The last trading session's volume (7.4M) is slightly above June's daily average before the event spike, but volumes are now stabilizing as euphoria wanes.

3. Price Action, Gaps, and Support/Resistance

• Support: Strong support has formed at $10.65–$10.80 (multiple bounces in past 3 sessions, plus round-number psychology).
• Resistance: The $11.40–$11.50 zone (today's high and late session highs) is key. Minor resistance at $12.00 (recent breakdown), strong at $14.00–$14.30 (post-spike congestion).
• Gaps: There is a large price gap down from July 22's highs, but also no immediate unfilled gaps below current price.

4. Candlestick Analysis

• July 31: Large-range red candle with substantial lower shadow, indicating a sell-off but with strong buying support near $10.80–$10.66.
• July 30: Bearish, but reversal wicks suggest buying interest below $11.20.
• Intraday (hourly): Multiple tests intraday of sub-$11.00 areas, each time recovering back towards $10.90–$10.99. In late session ($10.84 close), this suggests demand persists at these levels.

5. Trend Analysis & Moving Averages

• The long-term trend is still down (April–late July), but the late-July move introduces a new high-volatility consolidation.
• Short-term (5, 10, 20-day MAs): All substantially below current price, but the averages (by inspection) will be catching up, and price is bouncing above what would be the 10-day MA.
• Momentum: Post-spike momentum has faded, but continued higher lows above $10.65 indicate range-bound stabilization over the past two days.

6. Oscillators (RSI, MACD)

• Although explicit indicator numbers aren't given, the price's sharp spike and subsequent pullback usually results in oversold conditions post-euphoria. Typical RSI would already have reset from extreme overbought (>80) to nearer 40–45 after consolidation, supporting the idea the selling is nearly exhausted in the short run.
• MACD and histogram after such moves would be negative but trending towards a crossover as price compresses.

7. Fibonacci Retracement

• July 22 high ($21.39), July 22 open ($10.42), now at $10.84.
• The price has retraced nearly 100% of the event spike, testing cycle lows. The $10.60–$10.80 zone aligns with the 0% retrace, suggesting a strong technical base.

8. Volume-Weighted Support/Accumulation Zone

• Volume between $10.80–$11.30 is heavy in the two most recent sessions: accumulation phase is likely, with larger players buying into the post-news dip.

9. Order Flow & Market Sentiment

• The stepwise sell-off after the event suggests weak hands flushed out, but lack of aggressive follow-through to new lows (prices didn't revisit pre-spike support at $8–9) indicates underlying investor optimism or speculation that the event (buyout/activism/turnaround) might still generate future upside.

10. Probability-Weighted Scenario for Next 24h

• Base Case (60%): Price stabilizes and consolidates near $10.80–$11.20, supported by accumulation. Minor rebound to $11.30 possible.
• Bullish Case (25%): Price breaks $11.40 on short covering/rumor, rallies rapidly toward $12.00–$12.50 where larger resistance lies.
• Bearish Case (15%): If $10.65 is lost on volume, possible acute flush toward $10.00 psychological round number, but no evidence of forced selling at end of July.

11. Trade Setup & Risk/Reward

• Risk: Relatively tight below $10.65. If breached, sellers may target $10.00.
• Reward: Mean reversion and unwinding of oversold, post-event capitulation plays favor a quick move to $11.30–$11.50, possibly higher on momentum.
• Edge: Highest probability lies in buying the post-event dip near $10.80, using $10.60 as a stop, targeting $11.40–$11.50 for the next 1–2 sessions.

12. Final Synthesis

• Evidence from support, volume analysis, oscillator resets, and candlestick action favor a Buy setup at or just below current prices. There is a low-risk, short-term trading opportunity as shorts cover and dip buyers step in above the $10.65–$10.80 post-retrace floor.
• The risk/reward setup is attractive for a tactical long, especially if the price approaches $10.80 again. Position sizing should be modest as headline/event risk is still present due to previous volatility.

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Conclusion: Open a long position (Buy) at $10.80, target $11.40 for a 24h mean-reversion bounce. Stop loss suggested at $10.60 for prudent risk management.