KVUE’s Breakaway Gap Throwback: Setting Up a 24-Hour Bounce Toward 16.70

Executive summary

• KVUE executed a massive breakaway gap higher on Nov 3 (14.37 → open 17.07, close 16.14) on extreme volume, then a classic throwback/pullback on Nov 4 to 15.85–16.00. The structure favors stabilization and a reflex bid back toward 16.40–16.80 in the next 24 hours if 15.80–16.00 support holds.
• Optimal tactical approach: buy the dip into 15.88–15.96 with a target near 16.60–16.70. A protective stop should sit below 15.55 (not a required output field, provided for risk framing).

Price action and structure

• Regime shift: The Nov 3 gap up (≈+19% vs prior close) with 203.5M shares dwarfs recent activity, signaling a new information set (likely news/earnings). Such gaps are often breakaway gaps that start a new up-leg. Day 2 (Nov 4) showed profit-taking but preserved the bigger pattern.
• Gap mechanics: Prior daily high on Oct 31 ≈14.41; Nov 3 daily low =16.135. That left a 14.41–16.135 gap. On Nov 4 price probed into the gap (intraday low 15.85), but held well above the midpoint of the gap (~15.27). Partial fills after breakaway gaps (a “throwback”) are common and, if supported by volume deceleration, often precede another push higher.
• Intraday microstructure (Nov 4): Multiple attempts above 16.25–16.32 failed; sell programs pressed price to 15.88–15.98 late day. The low 15.85 aligns with a developing demand shelf and round-number support at 16.00. Closing at 15.97 sets a constructive springboard for a bounce if early liquidity reclaims 16.15–16.25.

Support/resistance map (near-term)

• Support: 15.85 (Nov 4 intraday low), 16.00 (round, prior VWAP clusters), 15.64 (50% retrace of the Nov 3 surge), 15.27 (gap midpoint), 15.00 (psychological, 61.8% retrace).
• Resistance: 16.20–16.32 (anchored VWAP/Kijun confluence), 16.43 (Nov 4 intraday high), 16.65–16.85 (upper band/overhead supply), 17.18 (Nov 3 high).

Trend and moving averages

• Short-term MAs: 5–10 day EMAs turned up sharply post-gap; price is consolidating just below a rising 5EMA and near/above a flattening 20SMA (est. ~15.6–15.8). This suggests a short-term uptrend attempt following capitulation lows (14.10 on Oct 16).
• Intermediate MA: 50SMA is still sloping down (trend damage from Aug–Oct selloff). Expect it to act as resistance on rallies into the high 16s–17s, but this is less impactful in a 24-hour horizon.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Rebounded from deeply oversold in mid-Oct to neutral-bullish now (approx. mid-50s pre-pullback; current ~48–52). This reflects a reset from overbought gap-day momentum without breaking the new up-regime.
• Stochastics (14,3,3): %K rolled over and is approaching neutral; a hook higher from 40–50 would cue the next pop. Current posture favors a bounce if price holds 15.85–16.00.
• MACD (12,26,9): Histogram flipped positive on the gap and is compressing on the throwback. Signal-line cross risk exists, but staying near the zero line after a breakaway is consistent with a coil before continuation.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) estimate: ~0.70–0.85 given recent expanded ranges (e.g., Nov 4 high/low 16.43–15.85 = 0.58; Nov 3 = 1.05). Expect a typical 24-hour move of ±0.6–0.9 from entry. This supports a tactical target near 16.60–16.70 from a 15.90–16.00 entry with acceptable R:R.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Bands widened materially; price sits near the mid-band after tagging the upper band on Nov 3 and fading on Nov 4. Mean-reversion from the mid-band often favors a push back toward the upper band (estimated 16.7–16.9) if buyers reassert.

Volume analytics

• Gap-day volume 203.5M > 6x the already-elevated late-Oct volumes; Nov 4 volume remained high but lower than Nov 3, a healthy pattern for a throwback.
• OBV: Sharp positive inflection on Nov 3; Nov 4 retrace only modestly dented OBV, implying accumulation on balance.
• Volume-by-price (recent window): Thick developing node around 16.00–16.20 (two-day VWAP cluster). Acceptance here often precedes a rotation to the next node (16.60–16.80).

VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAPs (Nov 4) hovered 16.12–16.20 much of the day before late-day sell pressure. The market cares about reclaiming that zone.
• Anchored VWAP from the gap day (Nov 3): Estimated ~16.20–16.30. Reclaiming/holding above it flips intraday flows positive and opens 16.60–16.80.

Fibonacci framework

• Nov 3 impulse: 14.10 → 17.18 = 3.08.
  • 38.2% retrace: 17.18 − 1.18 ≈ 16.00 (today’s close ~15.97 is right on it).
  • 50%: ~15.64.
  • 61.8%: ~15.00. This is textbook: price has pulled back to the 38.2%—a common wave-2 termination in Elliott terms—offering a tactical buy-the-dip setup.
• Larger swing (Aug highs ~22.9 to Oct lows 14.1): The Nov 3 surge recovered ~35% of the decline, consistent with a first countertrend leg. For 24h purposes, the micro-Fib (above) dominates.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price jumped toward/into a thin daily cloud on the gap. Kijun/Tenkan are lifting; a flat Kijun near ~16.30 often acts as a magnet. Chikou span is improving but still contending with prior price—consistent with a grind higher rather than a runaway.

Candlestick/Pattern diagnostics

• Nov 3: Big gap with an upper wick (profit-taking into close) but maintained a higher close vs Oct 31. That’s more breakaway than exhaustion given volume.
• Nov 4: Bearish real body but not a full gap fill; forms a “throwback” candle into support. A stabilization day (small-bodied candle) on Nov 5 would often precede continuation.

Elliott wave read (tactical)

• Wave 1: 14.10 → 17.18.
• Wave 2: Pullback currently ~38.2% (≈16.00) with potential to extend to 50% (~15.64) if early selling persists. If 15.55–15.64 holds, Wave 3 intraday targets project to 1.0–1.272 extensions in the 16.75–17.10 zone. For a 24-hour scalp, we focus on 16.60–16.70.

Mean reversion and statistical signals

• 20-day z-score of close likely near +0.4 to +0.6 after the pullback (vs +1.5 on gap close). This normalization supports a modest positive drift back toward the short-term VWAP/upper band over the next session.

Risk factors to monitor (within 24h)

• A decisive break below 15.85 followed by failure to reclaim 16.00 quickly raises odds of a deeper gap fill toward 15.27 (gap midpoint) or 15.00 (61.8% Fib). That would invalidate the immediate-bounce thesis.
• If the open gaps above 16.30 with strong breadth and holds that AVWAP, momentum to 16.65–16.85 can accelerate quickly.

Trade plan (tactical, 24-hour horizon)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip into 15.88–15.96 with confirmation on reclaim of 16.10–16.20.
• Entry: Limit near 15.92 (slightly below round-number 16.00 and just above 38.2% Fib cluster).
• Target: 16.60–16.70 (upper Bollinger vicinity, prior intraday supply shelf). Take-profit at 16.68 in outputs.
• Risk: Consider a stop around 15.55 (below 50% retrace and below emerging swing structure). R:R ≈ 2:1 from a 15.92 entry to 16.68 target vs 15.55 stop.

Bottom line

• The combination of a breakaway gap, controlled throwback to the 38.2% retracement, OBV resilience, and VWAP/Ichimoku magnet at ~16.20–16.30 argues for a stabilization and a push higher within the next 24 hours. The optimal tactic is to buy near 15.90–16.00 and target a move into 16.60–16.70, provided 15.85–16.00 support remains intact.