LAC at the 38.2% Line: Coiled Under Pivot for a Secondary Push Toward 7.5

Executive snapshot

• Ticker: LAC (Lithium Americas Corp.)
• Currency: $
• Current price: 6.86
• Context: A major gap-and-run began 2025-09-24 with record volume, establishing a new regime of high volatility and liquidity. Since the 10/1 thrust to 7.55 and close at 7.04, price has consolidated around 6.7–6.9 with intraday support repeatedly defended near 6.70 and resistance near the daily pivot around ~7.05.

Multi-timeframe structure and trend

• Daily trend: Strongly bullish since 9/24. Higher highs and higher lows, price well above medium/long MAs. The large gap created a new value zone between ~6.0 and ~7.5.
• 4H/1H trend (today’s h-data): Sideways-to-slightly-bullish consolidation. Multiple tests of 6.70 held; rebounds toward 6.90 faded near the ~7.00–7.05 pivot. This is constructive digestion after a surge.

Key levels (derived from recent highs/lows, fibs, pivots, and volume)

• Immediate resistance: 7.04 (10/1 close/pivot P), 7.18–7.20 (10/2 intraday high cluster), 7.37 (9/25 close), 7.53–7.55 (swing high zone and R1 from prior day’s pivots), 8.05 (1.272 Fib extension of 5.71→7.55).
• Immediate support: 6.86 (38.2% retracement of 5.71→7.55), 6.70–6.72 (intraday shelf and repeated hourly bounces), 6.63 (50% retracement of 5.71→7.55), 6.58 (10/1 S1 area, hourly wick lows), 6.33 (9/26 close), 6.01 (9/24 close), 5.71 (9/30 close, swing low and 78.6% retracement of 5.05→7.55).

Trend and moving averages

• 5-day SMA ≈ 6.34: price above — positive short-term breadth.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 5.47: price well above — confirms trend inflection from the catalyst.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 4.24: price far above — strong regime shift, but also extended versus mean.
• 8-day EMA ≈ 5.91 (est.): price above — bullish momentum bias remains intact. Interpretation: Multi-SMA/EMA stack is bullish with wide separation; this supports buying pullbacks rather than shorting strength.

Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): mid-60s. After peaking on the surge, momentum has cooled but remains in bullish territory; no bearish divergence evident in provided data.
• Stochastic daily (est.): cycling down from overbought into neutral while price holds higher — typical of a bull flag digestion.
• MACD daily (qualitative): Fast MA above slow MA with the histogram flattening — momentum pause rather than a reversal. A renewed expansion of the histogram on a push through ~7.05–7.20 would signal continuation. Interpretation: Momentum cooled from overbought but remains supportive; a breakout over the pivot should re-accelerate.

Volatility and ranges

• Recent true range expanded dramatically post-9/24; current daily ATR (est.) ≈ 0.90–1.10. Intraday hourly ranges today: roughly 6.70–6.92 with occasional spikes to ~7.18.
• Expected next 24h range: Base 6.63–7.20. Breakout expansion could reach 7.35–7.50; downside flush tests 6.58 then 6.33 if support fails.

Volume, VWAP, and OBV

• Volume: Step-function increase since 9/24 with several 100M+ share days. Today still heavy vs pre-catalyst. This is characteristic of institutional participation and a new equilibrium forming at higher prices.
• OBV (conceptual): Strong up-turn on gap day, minor drawdown during 9/26–9/30, renewed uptick on 10/1. Overall, accumulation still dominates.
• Session VWAP (10/2 intraday, inferential): Mid-to-high 6.8s given the bulk of trading between 6.70 and 6.92; price spent much of the session near or modestly above VWAP — neutral-to-positive intraday tone. Interpretation: Accumulation bias persists. Price holding near/above VWAP while digesting gains is constructive.

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

• With 20SMA ≈ 4.24 and inflated post-gap stdev, upper band likely sits in the mid-to-high 6s. Recent closes (7.04, 6.86) ride or slightly exceed the upper band region — typical of a strong advance entering consolidation. Pullbacks to the mid-band are shallow relative to the magnitude of the move, signaling underlying demand.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: 5.71 → 7.55 (range 1.84)
  • 38.2%: 6.847 — current price is sitting on this level.
  • 50%: 6.63 — next strong support if 6.85 fails intraday.
  • 61.8%: 6.309 — deeper but still healthy retrace in a strong trend.
• Extensions from 7.55:
  • 1.272: ~8.05
  • 1.618: ~8.69 Interpretation: The market is respecting the 38.2% retracement. Holding above ~6.84 typically precedes a retest of the swing high; failure would invite a test of ~6.63.

Pivot points (using 10/1 H/L/C: 7.55/6.58/7.04)

• Pivot P ≈ 7.06; S1 ≈ 6.56; R1 ≈ 7.53; S2 ≈ 6.09; R2 ≈ 8.03.
• Today’s action: Largely between S1 and P, with intraday high failing near P and soft rejection toward high 6.7s before recovering. This is classic pre-breakout compression under the pivot. Interpretation: A decisive reclaim of P (~7.06) on rising volume sets up a measured move to R1 (~7.53); if rejected, look for a rotation down toward 6.63–6.56.

Ichimoku (daily and 1H, qualitative)

• Daily: Price far above a rising Kumo; conversion line > base line; bullish trend intact.
• 1H: Price oscillates around the conversion line; cloud support projected near ~6.70–6.75; lagging span remains above price from two periods ago — a mild bullish bias intraday. Interpretation: Cloud structure supports buying dips into the 6.70–6.75 zone with invalidation below ~6.58.

Elliott Wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 3.07 → 6.01 (9/23→9/24).
• Wave 2: Shallow consolidation into 9/24 close/9/26 pullback.
• Wave 3: 9/25 push to 7.53, then corrective 9/29–9/30 to 5.71.
• Wave 4: Completed at 5.71; Wave 5 attempt: 10/1 thrust to 7.55 with 10/2 sideways digestion. If valid, a marginal new high (7.6–8.1) is typical before larger-degree consolidation. Interpretation: The structure supports a near-term attempt at higher highs if 6.63–6.70 holds.

Candlestick/price-action reads

• 10/1: Wide-range day with long lower shadow, close in upper half — buyers defended sub-6.7 aggressively.
• 10/2: Small-bodied “spinning top” around a key Fib (38.2%) — indecision at support, often a bullish continuation if the next session opens firm and reclaims P (~7.06).
• Intraday 1H: Repeated higher lows around 6.70–6.71 and contained selling into 6.65–6.70 suggest responsive buyers.

Market profile / volume nodes (inferential)

• Heavy volume nodes around 6.70–6.90 from today’s tape create a nearby value area with a developing point of control near ~6.80–6.85. Acceptance above this zone typically leads to a test of the upper distribution 7.18–7.37; rejection below shifts value toward 6.63.

Risk factors and failure points

• News-driven regime: Elevated headline risk can gap price beyond technicals. Position sizing and hard stops are crucial.
• Invalidation: A sustained break below 6.63 (50% retrace) would weaken the immediate bull case; below 6.58 opens 6.33 and then 6.01 quickly given thin historical volume between these levels.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Bullish continuation (55–60%): Early consolidation 6.75–6.95, reclaim of ~7.06 pivot on rising volume, push to 7.20–7.37. If momentum persists, extension toward 7.48–7.53 into the close/after-hours.
• Range-bound (25–30%): Value holds 6.70–7.05; several tests of pivot fail; net change modest with coiling for the next session.
• Bearish fade (15–20%): Early failure at ~7.00, break below 6.84 Fib, slide to 6.63; weak bounce; risk of stop-run to 6.58. Deeper extension to 6.33 if liquidity pockets are probed.

Synthesis and trade plan

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within 6.70–6.85, targeting a re-test of 7.37–7.53 over the next session as consolidation resolves higher.
• Why long over short: 1) Price above all key short/mid MAs, 2) 38.2% retracement holding, 3) OBV/volume structure suggests accumulation, 4) Tight intraday consolidation under pivot often precedes an upside release in a strong trend.
• Execution: Place a limit buy slightly below market to capture a routine liquidity sweep into the 6.75–6.80 shelf. Confirmation trigger is a reclaim of 6.95–7.00 with increasing tape speed; however, the primary plan seeks entry on weakness, not breakout chase.
• Risk management (guidance): Consider a protective stop below 6.58 (beneath intraday S1/weekly shelf) to avoid being trapped in a deeper retrace. Not part of the requested fields, but central to the thesis’ integrity.
• Reward mapping: Primary profit zone 7.35–7.53; scale out just before round/known resistance (e.g., 7.48) to increase fill probability.

Bottom line

• The technicals favor a constructive long: buy the dip into 6.75–6.80 with a take-profit into 7.35–7.50 over the next 24 hours, provided 6.63/6.58 supports continue to hold. Upside optionality exists to 7.53 if momentum expands.

Note: This is a technical analysis-based view for short-term trading and not investment advice. Use strict risk controls in this high-volatility, catalyst-driven regime.